Baseball playoff expansion: I am.... torn

People have a clarity of conviction when it comes to the additional two teams in the major league post season, and I wish I could join them in that stance, but I'm just not sure. Originally, I was uncomfortable with the expansion of the post season, because it watered down the post season. If more teams make the postseason, it get's watered down. The long regular season for a few cherished spots in the playoffs is one of the things that make the game unique.
But then, I reconsidered. One of the things about the wild card chase is that it allows some teams to coast in to the post season, assured their spot in a 5 game series. Wild Card teams have been met with a great deal of success since they were introduced in 1993, so there really isn't a stigma for ending up in that spot Now, if you are the best team not to win your division, you can't just skate to the playoffs. There is an impetus to win your division. The best teams have something to play for even as the season winds down, trying to avoid the ignominy of losing the 1 game playoff. The team they would face would have the advantage of aligning their starting pitchers, where as the wild card winner likely would have used their ace the game before. Of course, they would also have an extra day off.
But again, there is the whole idea of watering down the post season. That said, remember that baseball started with 16 teams and 2 teams in the post season. Then, when the Twins won, it was 26 teams with 4 teams in the postseason. It was expanded to 8 teams in the playoffs with the addition of the Rockies and Marlins, meaning 28 teams, 8 spots. If you want to do the math, that is 14, 22 and 20 teams left out of the post season. With 30 teams and 10 teams in the playoffs, we are still leaving 20 teams out, which is pretty much in line with the way it has always been.
I wish there was a better way to do this than a 1 game playoff, but for the life of me, I can't think of one. If anything, I just hope the season starts sooner going forward to accommodate the extra game Right now, that's my biggest sticking point. That and the inevitability of the Twins losing 5 1 game series in a row.

An open letter to Major League Baseball ownership

To whom it may concern:
 Hello, my name is Ryan Henning, and I am looking for work. Well, that's not entirely the case. I am gainfully employed, but not in your line of work. I feel that I would be a excellent candidate for your front office. Allow me to continue.
If young general managers such as Billy Beane, Alex Anthopolous or especially Theo Epstein have taught us anything, it's that an understanding of baseball, statistics and a fresh perspective are important to running a baseball team. I feel that I have all three.
I'm not what you would call a "baseball guy" in as much as I don't have a history with any particular team, nor do I have any connections to past or present players or executives. I assure you though, that I would go out of my way to fill my staff with people that understand the finer aspects of running an organization, from business, to scouting to the overall cohesion of a roster.
I also understand how important a team's tradition is to a city and an organization, and I would do my best to run the team accordingly. I understand that, say, the Twins value defense, or the Mariners appreciate their ties the Far East. I can work with this, and will continue to promote the brand that your team would like to put forth.
My background is in meteorology, which means I have a fundamental understanding of numbers and probability, which is the new wave in baseball. I haven't proven myself to be a failure as the helmsman of a Major League Baseball team, as many of your candidates for employment likely are.
I feel I have the capability to be an effective general manager, though I could understand your apprehension in hiring someone as green as me in such an important role. Still, what do you have to lose? I feel that it would be in everyone's best interest that we at least sit down for an interview.
Best regards,
Ryan Henning

The worst trade in Twins history?

At the 1994 trade deadline, (strike year!) the Twins dealt Dave Winfield to the Cleveland Indians. It being in the midst of the strike, the trade was for a player to be named, but after the season was canceled, said player was never named. Still, the Indians had Winfield.
The Twins and Indians executives met for dinner then in the offseason, with the Indians picking up the tab. The trade was then called even. Dave Winfield, hall of famer, was traded for dinner.

(This was not the intended post. There was an angry rant ready to go, and you may still see tomorrow, and then Derek Jeter hit #3000 in dramatic fashion, so I was going to mention that, even give him kudos, but I started boring into 3000 hit history and looked up Dave Winfield. And now we have this post.)

What happened to the Left on Base stat?

I remember old box scores in the info section, in the midst of the 2bs and HRs and SBs and what have you would also list LOB, or rather, how many men a batter left on base with two outs. It was a simple, easily countable statistic, though flawed like many others. High Heat Baseball 2003 used it, I remember. A mediocre online scorebook I use from time to time uses it. I was curious about it and was going to incorporate it into a made up statistic I was going to use here, and I didn't think digging up those numbers would be an issue.
Well.
I looked first at baseball reference. No luck. I looked at Fangraphs. Still no luck. It's one of those stats that isn't really all that instructional for telling you about a player's worth, so I thought those two stat driven sites may have eschewed it. Certainly MLB, ESPN or CBS would carry it. Nope, nope, nope. One site, Team Rankings only had the top 100 by LOB/Game, which is just strange.
I thought I would re-explore the online box scores. Again, nothing. The player LOB stats no longer appear in box scores. What happened? How long has this been going on? Am I going insane?
Obviously, as I said, LOB isn't REALLY a good estimate of any value for a player, but I do think it is unusual that what was once a statistic is no longer tracked by anyone.

BREAKING: White Sox Unveil New Alternate Uniforms for 2011

CHICAGO - In a surprising move, the Chicago White Sox unveiled a new alternate uniform for the 2011 season, which they plan to wear for 18 games, all of them against the Minnesota Twins. The uniform has pinstripes similar to the home uniform that the White Sox have worn for the past 20 years, but instead of the familiar intersecting S-O-X logo on the chest, it will have an intersecting N-Y logo. "This special alternate uniform that we plan to wear for all 18 games against the Twins next year will not only draw interest among the fans, but will also provide us with a significant advantage in the AL Central race," said White Sox GM Kenny Williams. "Recent history has shown that the Twins are completely unable to even win a single important game against a team with an intersecting N-Y on the chest, or for that matter, a slightly arched NEW YORK on a plain gray uniform. We plan to use this to our advantage in the upcoming season." The New York Yankees, who wear a similar uniform to this proposed alternate, declined comment. They may, however, be forced to provide a comment next week, when the Tigers, Indians, and Royals also plan to unveil a special 18-game only alternate uniform. A joint statement released by those 3 teams and White Sox said it all: "In 2011, we are taking drastic measures with our uniform designs in an effort to make the American League playoffs interesting again."

Not that Jeter gets treated like a god or anything

If the whole Derek Jeter hit by pitch incident had involved anyone else in baseball, would the reviews have been as glowing?
Ron Gardenhire is amused.Every commentator on ESPN, from Josh Eliot to Mark Schlereth has expressed their admiration for such an intelligent, gritty player. If it was ANYONE else in the game, do you think the reviews would be as glowing? I think I'm just going to be happy that he has a fastball coming for his ribs in the not so distant future.

Double Play Stats...

This post goes out to my Baby Brother, Jacob. For without him, I probably wouldn't have found the link to the blog post this blog post is about. That statement really don't make much sense, but really, it does.

Shawn wrote an article on his blog about a new stat he was working on coming up with. I think his stat has a legitimate point, but I think the execution of calculating it still needs work.

Shawn pointed out that guys who hit into double plays hurts his team. Thus, he calculated a stat that took the on-base percentage and subtracted an out for each double play the hitter hit into.

Here's where the problem comes in for me. Let's say Tom, Dick, and Harry bat in order during a game. Tom and Dick have excellent on-base percentages but very little power. This means Harry is likely to often come up to bat with Tom or Dick on first base. Poor Harry has a lot of opportunities to hit into double plays, and therefore, likely has hit into a lot of them.

On the other hand, Huey, Dewey, and Louie bat in order. Huey and Dewey have pretty good power, but their on-base percentages are pretty poor. Therefore, when Louie comes up to the plate, it's not very likely that there's someone on first base, so he doesn't really hit into that many double plays.

Here's the thing: both Harry and Louie could hit the ball exactly the same in every at-bat. But Harry's on-base percentage would be much lower than Louie's based on the stat Shawn presented us with. To me, it strikes me as unfair. It's simply a matter of where Harry and Louie are in the line-up. If you'd switch them, they'd likely be hitting exactly the same. (In fact, Dick is probably fairly vulnerable to the double-play, too, while Tom is probably not at all, when in reality all three are similar hitters in my hypothetical line-up.)

I told my cousin who was begging for the Twins to trade Joe Mauer to his team: "Why, do you need more guys to hit into double plays?" The reality is that Mauer is often like Harry in our hypothetical example: Span and Hudson typically get on base often, and Mauer is somewhat of a ground-ball hitter, making him vulnerable to double plays, putting him on the leader board for grounding into double plays. But people who know stats also point out that based on opportunities, his double play percentage isn't on the leader board.

I think there should be some way to account for double plays in stats. Right now, the only one I'm in favor of is the double play percentage, which calculates the percentage of double plays based on the opportunities to hit into them (runner at first, less than two outs). I wouldn't mind seeing the two stats (OBP and GDP%) combined, actually. I haven't worked out the science, but I'd like to see the math that Shawn figured out, but not straight-out subtracting a hit for every double play. With that, players get penalized when they have more opportunities, when really it's the manager's fault for putting him in that place in the line-up.

Oh look, the Rangers have pitching

When did this happen? And the one time Nick Blackburn is effective too... Oh well, very good.

What happened to that busy deadline?

Leading up to the trade deadline, which is, of course, tomorrow, we had heard two things that the experts said:
1) The deadline would be quiet
2) One team that would be active would be the Twins

Well, so far the deadline has, by my standards anyways, been fairly active. Just think, Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt and Dan Haren have all been moved in the last few days, not to mention Cliff Lee several days ago and lesser known players like Edwin Jackson, Jhonny Peralta and former Twin Cristian Guzman have already been moved, on top of many more unmentioned players.
Meanwhile, the Twins have added Matt Capps, and have otherwise been pretty quiet. The solution is simple. The needs the Twins have aren't matched by the available commodities on the market. They would like another starter I'm sure, but I don't think there is a market for that anymore. They could also be benefited by adding some infield depth, but I suspect that a deal could come together quickly.
It's different this year, because the Twins haven't been in on one big name player, so I don't even know if there is anything to be frustrated about. We'll just have to see what happens tomorrow, but so far nothing has happened as expected.

Thanks for the help, ESPN

I was in the ESPN live chat pretty much all day, and fired off several questions about the Twins (did they mention anything about Matt Capps? No!) to no avail.I decided I was goig to flip out a question or two on the ret of the AL Central in hopes that the Twins would be mentioned.
Of course, when I finally got through, this is what I got.Thanks, ESPN, this was the kind of help I was looking for.

You know what? I like the All Star game

Every year, complaints are made about the All Star Game, and they follow three primary courses. I'll adress all three individually, because as it turns out, I don't have a problem with any of the three "issues". To wit:

Fan voting screws everything up: Like it or not, this is the "All Star" game, not the "Best players in the first half of the season" game. This is one of the few events that is almost entirely fan oriented, and fans get to have a choice in watching who they want to watch. So what if Derek Jeter is always there? He's popular, like it or not.

The game shouldn't count for anything: Nobody watches the Pro Bowl. Nobody watches the NBA or NHL All Star games, Why? Because they aren't real games. Real competition is fun. Exhibition is boring. And frankly, there really isn't a good way to decide homefield anyways, because the leagues play each other so infrequently, and individual divisions play among themselves with more regularity, meaning teams often have disparate strengths of schedule. This is one game that puts someone from every AL team against someone from every NL team, and there aren't any flawed scheduling practices involved. Not only that, it gives a little gravitas and watchability to an otherwise unwatchable game.

Every team is represented: I LOVE that every team is represented. I remember back in the late 90s when the Twins were atrocious, the best part of the All Star Game was the brief moment that Ron Coomer came up for an at bat, seeing him compete with the stars of the league was great for a kid who was still a fan of the Twins. I have to imagine for young Pirates or Royals fans, it has to be great seeing their favorites competing on national television is still a joy in an otherwise dismal season. And as long as we are making it a game that determines what league is better, don't we WANT to evaluate them from top to bottom?

Anyways, this, to me, is one of the ways that baseball is better than other sports. Every game from the first of the season to the very last game of the World Series counts. Why do so many have a problem with this?

It's Just a Game

Ryan made mention of the Twins poor streak. It was unusual in that the Twins usually dominate in interleague play, but this year, they were dominated by the National League. No known reason, they just were. (Incidentally, I would really like to see the interleague play be balanced--that is, each division plays the same teams in the other league. To have one team (for this example, we'll use the Braves) face last-place teams in the other league (Baltoimore, Cleveland, Kansas City) while a divisional opponent (Mets) faces the first-place teams in the league (Yankees, Twins, and Rangers) is an unfair advantage. (This did not happen exactly like this, but I'm saying it could. The thing is, when the schedules are made, no one knows who the best and worst teams are going to be...therefore, to balance it out by having each division play the same teams--minus the interleague rivals, which I enjoy--would balance it out.) But I digress.

Recently, an article in Sports Illustrated was brought to my attention. Since I find psychology interesting, I enjoyed the perspective. There are players out there who suffer from issues like social anxiety and depression. Someone on Twitter recently said, 'I just made a mistake at work. Glad I didn't have 20,000 people booing me.' Players are people, too. Many of them care more than you think. What's their job is our relaxation--our free time is spent watching sports.

This is all just a game. Win or lose, does it *really* matter? If you asked me at the game, I'd answer, "yes!" Away from the game, I gain more perspective. I mean, baseball will be there next year (God willing). If we don't make the playoffs, it's not really the end of the world--it just feels like it. If we don't win today, we don't suck all around (although it feels like it some days). As many say: baseball is not a sprint--it's a marathon. If you get behind in a sprint, it's nearly impossible to make up time. If you get behind in a marathon early on--or even in the middle--there's still plenty of time to make up time. In baseball, there have been divisions won and lost in September. There has been seemingly insurmountable odds beaten in September.

And yet...divisions can be lost in April, May, and June, no matter what the Septembers looked like. To beat those insurmountable odds--which happens--not only requires one team to win a lot, it also requires another team to lose a lot.

Let's bring up the story of the turtle and the hare. As you know, the hare makes the great start, gets lazy, and takes a nap before finishing the race because he's so far ahead. Meanwhile, the turtle just plods along slowly, and passes the napping hare to win. The only reason the turtle wins is because the hare doesn't even try. If at some point when the turtle passed it and before the turtle crossed the finish line, the hare would've woken up, he still could've used his great speed to cross the finish line first. The hare could've won the race, and there's nothing the turtle could've done about it.

Realistically, each game is equally important. The Twins forced a tie-breaker Game 163 two years in a row. Just imagine one more win by the Twins--or Tigers in 2009 or the White Sox in 2008--in April of 2008 or 2009 could've made the difference. Based on that, also, each game is just 1/162 of a season. That's just 0.62% of the season. To live and die by every game means you're spending 44.4% of your year worried about a game...a game that's been played for over a hundred years, and likely will continue to be played for at least another hundred. (And in that time, maybe--just maybe--the Cubs will win the World Series again. But don't count on it.)

Old men and baseball

It might not seem like a big deal, but it kinda is. The Twins, in the 22nd round, drafted a high school shortstop named Dillon Moyer. The kid has some good stock, because just a month ago, Dillon's father, Jamie, pitched a no-hitter.

Jamie Moyer debuted in the majors before my sister's first birthday; he was drafted a year before she was born. My sister is now married. My grandfather could've read about him in the newspaper (there was no internet back then, kids). Grandpa died almost twenty years ago. (How's this for trivia: Grandpa saw Satchel Paige pitch in North Dakota in the 1930s. Satchel Paige was the oldest rookie to play in the major leagues (age: 42).)

There's something about a player like this that fascinates me. He's not a hard-throwing starting pitcher, although I'd imagine to pitch into your late 40's, you need to be more than a hard-thrower (err, based on Mariano Rivera, maybe not...but he's a relief pitcher, not a starter). He's what's known as a finesse pitcher--his fastball tops out in the low 80s. That's not very fast. It's a reminder that you don't have to blow it by 'em to get outs. You just have to be smarter than the other person. A proper mixing of pitches can keep hitters enough off-balance to get the outs. Many pitchers can get by with this for short periods, but it takes some talent to sustain this for decades--as Moyer has done. In fact, Moyer is the only pitcher to throw a shut-out in four different decades.

Will Moyer ever face his son? That would require him to pitch for at least a couple more years. There's also no saying Dillon will sign with the the Twins (he has signed a commitment to play at Cal-Irvine). But best-case scenario is probably that he signs with the Twins, comes up as a rookie in four years (age 22), Moyer would have to pitch until he's 51. Normally, I'd say that's not going to happen, but I also wouldn't think a guy would throw a no-hitter at age 47. So, anything can happen. And I'd like to see it.

Steve's 2010 MLB Predictions

I don't know what it is with me and this time of the year when it comes to sports writing. The original Is It Sports? site died at this time of the year in 2006 when I pretty much just stopped posting new things on it, which caused Ryan to start this site. It's not like it isn't exciting time of year. You have March Madness, Spring Training, the start of the NBA and NHL playoffs, etc. In 2006, I was preparing to move to a new city, but this year, I have basically no excuse. Oh well, I'll pretend to blame the amazing Arizona spring time weather.

Speaking of Arizona spring time weather, unfortunately for me, the major league season has already started and now I am stuck with only the D-Backs playing locally instead of half of the entire sport. This year, I went to 4 spring training games. I saw my first ever tie when the White Sox played the Reds in Goodyear. I saw the Swinging' A's win twice in 3 days in Phoenix, beating the Diamondbacks and the Cubs. To finish the season, I went to my 100th ever White Sox game in Glendale against the Royals. They were winning when they had their starters in, but by the end of the game, every single player on the Sox was literally wearing a number in the 80s or 90s. I think AJ Pierzynski may have rounded up a bunch of starters and left early to go watch Wrestlemania, which was happening about 3 miles away. So it was a little disappointing to see them lose that game, but hey, its only spring.

So now, here are my picks. Hopefully I didn't gain any inside info by making them 2 weeks into the season. If I picked the current standings as my order of finish, I would probably be very, very wrong....

NL EAST
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
Florida Marlins
New York Mets
Washington Nationals

You'd have to think that the Phillies are the clear favorite to win the NL Pennant again this year. They are one of the only NL teams with an AL-caliber offense and now adding Roy Halladay to their rotation makes them even tougher to beat. The Braves, I think, have a good chance to climb to the top of the scrap heap of mediocrity in the NL and maybe steal the wild card spot. The Marlins always seem to be better than they look on paper, but usually just don't have the experience to get over the hump. The Mets are set for another disappointing season. I called their collapse in this preview last year and I'm pretty proud of it. The Nationals are....vomit inducing...but so are Philadelphia fans.

NL CENTRAL
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh Pirates

The Cardinals are one of the major bang for the buck success stories of the past decade, and I think they look solid again this year. It's obvious that Matt Holliday is an NL-only legend after returning back to his Colorado days after being traded to St. Louis this year, and the Cards pitching staff is solid, but not too flashy. The Brewers remind me of the poor man's version of the Cardinals. They have 2 big time hitters (Fielder and Braun) fill the gaps with other decent players, and have a not-so flashy but serviceable rotation (but not nearly as good as the Cards). The Cubs did basically nothing to improve their team this offseason, and they are an older team that now is just older and still not as good as the Cardinals. Third seems about right in the division. The Reds probably have the most upside of the bottom 3 teams, but will probably finish at least 15 games below .500. The Astros are getting a bad rap early this season, and they aren't very good, but they are probably still better than the Pirates, who I am sure will find a way to get into last.

NL WEST
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres

I like the Giants this year...a lot. They have the best pitcher in baseball backed up by an above average rotation. Offensively, all they need to be is a little better than last year to make the playoffs, considering how their pitching carried them all year. Can adding Aubrey Huff and Mark DeRosa make them that little bit better? The Rockies are coming off another nice season and finally seem to have a balance between pitching and hitting. They are my pick for the NL Wild Card this year. The Dodgers are much better offensively than the Giants but their pitching scares me. Chad Billingsley is very good at being mediocre, and Vincente Padilla....really? The Padres won't be very good. Run Adrian Gonzalez, run.

AL EAST
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles

The Yankees are just too good. I think we're stuck in one of those "Yankees are unstoppable, why bother even playing the season?" runs of years. How....depressing. The Red Sox are off to a slow start, but they still have what it takes to be 2nd in this division and probably win the wild card too, thanks to the rest of the AL not being so great. The Rays will probably be the Red Sox top competition for the wild card this year, but I still feel like their 2008 run was kind of a planet's aligning experience. They will need to spend some more money if they want to be competitive in this division for a prolonged period. The Blue Jays and Orioles are both not so good. I think the Orioles are relying too heavily on young players that haven't really proven themselves to be very good so far, and the Blue Jays are doing the same thing to a lesser extent. So in toss up, I take Toronto for 4th.

AL CENTRAL
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians

I admit this year that the Twins are probably the best team in this division, and maybe they will be even more than just winning this division by default like they usually do when no one else is too good. Ergh....I guess I get to watch the Twins waste the AL Central's playoff spot yet again this October....The Tigers scarily fade every year in September, and I don't really see a reason why they won't again this year. Unlike in 2006, they won't be good enough to still make it as the wild card even after choking away the division. On to the White Sox, I'm getting a little tired of Kenny Williams just throwing together a completely random team every year and making moves for the sake of making moves. I don't think the Sox will be any more than mediocre (if even that) this year, but hey, they look somewhat impressive on paper, right? At least this year a healthy amount of their players were born in the 80s and could potentially all hit their primes together in the next 2 or 3 years. I just hope the random players thrown in with them in the future are decent and not absolutely washed up. I think the Royals are trying their best to be competitive, and could challenge the White Sox for 3rd. Are the Indians doing this on purpose to have Major League 4 based on them?

AL WEST
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners

I'm not going to pick against the Angels in this division until one of these other 3 teams proves to me why I should not. The Rangers were surprisingly good last year, despite having no pitching. If Rich Harden can stay healthy and Scott Feldman can develop more, along with their other developing young hitters (and Josh Hamilton and Ron Washington both stay off the crack) the Rangers could be legitimate challengers to the Angels this year. The A's have their usual group of prospects, probably good enough for 3rd. The Mariners have gotten a little bit of media love this year, but I'm not buying it. They seem to like to take the Kenny Williams philosophy of making moves to make moves but they do it significantly worse.

PLAYOFFS
Divisional
Phillies over Rockies
Giants over Cardinals (That pitching in a 5 game series is scary)
Yankees over Angels
Red Sox over Twins

NLCS/ALCS
Phillies over Giants
Yankees over Red Sox

World Series
Yankees over Phillies (yeah boring, but I think its going to happen again)

Awards:
NL MVP: Albert Pujols, Cardinals
NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum, Giants
NL Manager of the Year (aka Steve's Kiss of Death): Bruce Bochy, Giants
NL ROY: Jason Heyward, Braves

AL MVP: Joe Mauer, Twins (The Yankees will be just too good for the media to pick one)
AL Cy Young: C. C. Sabathia, Yankees
AL Manager of the Year (aka Steve's Kiss of Death): Ron Gardenhire, Twins
AL ROY: Neftali Feliz, Rangers

Predictions, 2010

Ryan posted his yesterday, so here's my predictions for 2010...

NL EAST
Washington Nationals
Florida Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves

The Washington Nationals come as the surprise team in the National League. It turns out, someone in the Nationals media department managed to convince the other teams in the National League that the Nationals weren’t a real team and all games against them were exhibition games. This lead to half-hearted efforts, and some easy wins for the Nationals, who were not in on the joke. The media guy later admitted that the Nationals would’ve believed the hoax, too, if he told them.

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburg Pirates
Houston Astros
Milwaukee Brewers

The Pittsburg Pirates looked in position to take over the NL Central until September 19. On Talk Like a Pirate Day, the Pirates managed to all become addicted to rum, and the AA meetings interfered with game times, leading many regulars to miss games. The Cubs

NL WEST
San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodger
San Francisco Giants

The Giants came in last place because the baseball writers hated spelling Francisco, and bribed the umpires. Other than citizens of the city, and Twins starter Francisco Liriano, no one cared much.

AL EAST
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay {Devil} Rays

While everyone hoped Orioles wouldn’t come in last place, they were the surprise of the season. The Yankees, with their great offense, and good pitching, realized that when they let a player take a day off to rest that they should replace the player on the field. The games without their catcher hurt the most.

AL CENTRAL
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers

The Royals find out that Zach Grienke isn’t really a normal human; he’s a science experiment gone terribly right. He doesn’t needs the four days of rest between starts. In fact, it’s discovered that he only needs 87 minutes, 31.5 seconds of rest between starts. This drastically changes the outlook of the Royals, who immediately replace starters 2-5 with two extra bullpen guys, and two extra batters. Grienke’s pitching allows the Royals to handily take the division with a 120-62 record. The Twins, for the third year straight, force a game 163 against the Blue Jays for the Wild Card slot. The Blue Jays, not realizing their error, picked up shortstop Adam Everett, who for the third year straight was on the losing team of Game 163. (Why aren’t the White Sox last? Because I feel generous today, and I don’t want to hear Steve to be mad at me.)


AL WEST

Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
Oakland A’s
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Using the heat of Texas as their home-field advantage to deplete the energy of their opponents, the Rangers handily win all their home games against their division rivals, who play in more temperate climates. (The teams from the Midwest and Northeast, being used to extreme temperatures, are only mildly affected by the extreme heatwave that lasts all summer in Texas.)

Playoffs:
NL: Nationals over the Cubs
Padres over the Marlins
Nationals over Padres
AL: Royals over the Orioles
Twins over Rangers

World Series:
Nationals versus Twins. In game seven, after the 32nd inning was finished with the 4-4 tie, fans were asked if anyone cared anymore who won (Games 1-6 all went between 13 and 21 innings). A resounding “no” came from the four fans still awake (although three of them caught naps between the 18-26th innings). A coin toss was attempted, but the coin landed on it’s side. The umpires declared the Cubs the winners and everyone went to bed happy. Except the Cubs’ fans, who were all in bed long before, and were bummed about missing their team finally winning.

April Fools! I suck at making predictions. I’m biased, and find it difficult to compare teams on paper (players, I'm good with; teams, not so much). So, like last year, I want to make insane predictions that, if they end up being true, will be a little frightening. Although it’s impossible for me to count my Twins out at all.

As an aside, and this, sadly, is not an April Fool’s joke, is one little note on my least favorite team, and the player that represents that team. Of all the things I’m thankful for is that while Derek Jeter is known as the Captain of the Yankees, he doesn’t wear a “C” on his chest, like Jason Varitek did for the Red Sox. Captains are completely unnecessary from a game perspective in baseball (clubhouse relations, they can be important, but still are not needed). (Hockey, for example, needs a captain, because the captains do have a function during the game, in talking to referees.) Anyway, on Wednesday, March 31*, 2010, the Twins were playing split squad games. Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Michael Cuddyer—players whom people would consider the leaders on the Twins—were playing the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (look, it sounds better than Rays to me. Ray is a name. Rays sounds like a team made up of a bunch of guys name Ray). Some “regulars” like Denard Span, Alexi Casilla, and Delmon Young were playing against the Yankees in Tampa. Span is from Tampa. In the first at-bat of the game, he hit a line-drive foul ball into the stands—and hit his mother. He rushed to the stands and stayed until the medics came. After that, his head wasn’t in the game. In the second or third inning,
Derek Jeter pulled Span aside, and told him to go see about his mother. Span left the game. (His mother is fine.)

My mom’s birthday! Yes, we like to tell her she was born a day early.

I don’t like the Yankees. Derek Jeter represents the Yankees. Yet, in a team where the Twins didn’t really have any of their leaders, Derek Jeter stepped up to provide some veteran leadership. For that, I tip my cap to him. This, however, does not give him permission to get any hits against the Twins.

Timberwolves update: They have a 1-2 record since I last reported. They’re now at 15-60, or a 20.0% winning percentage. The have the worst record in the West, but New Jersey has the worst record in the NBA, 10-65. While their seasons have been over for a long time, I’m sure fans are wondering when they’ll stop playing games. Or attempting to play.

Wild Update: The Wild have a 37-34-6 record, for a 48.1% winning percentage. They’re not mathematically out of the playoff picture yet, but neither are the Washington Nationals.

Nathan's hurt... Really, it's OK

First the bad news. Joe Nathan has a tear in his elbow that would require Tommy John surgery. I say would, of course, because he is 35, which for an athlete is fairly old. Tommy John surgery takes a player out for a full season, and it's fairly accepted that a player takes another season to come back, and by that time, he will be 37. For a pitcher, this is a horrible situation. He obviously cannot ever pitch for a contract again, because he won't get the surgery and will forever be damaged goods. If he does get the surgery, he could come back too old and out of game shape to be an effective pitcher ever again.
Nathan is, in my opinion, one of the greatest examples of what a star athlete should be. Loyal, dedicated, hard working, friendly and charitable. He loves Minnesota, he loves the Twins and he works hard at being the best at what he does. Not only that, but he is a good pitcher to boot. It saddens me that we are rather suddenly faced with the prospect of the end of his career, and it is my sincere hope that if he is forced to retire (which he will do with more grace than SOME people I'm sure), he stays with the organization.
But now the good news. The Twins are going to be fine. Let me tell you about another team, the Philadelphia Phillies. Their closer, Brad Lidge had 31 saves, and they went to the World Series. Lidge had a 7.21 ERA. Most closers in the league have an ERA in the 2's and are the best pitcher in the bullpen, as is generally the case with Nathan and the Twins. With Nathan, the Twins lost in the ALDS. With the dramatically inferior Lidge, the Phillies made the World Series. Saves are kind of a garbage stat. Essentially what it means is that your team wins a lot of close games, not that a team has an elite closer. Obviously, having an elite closer doesn't make or break a team either.
The good news for the Twins is that they have a deep bullpen, at least going into the season. Believe it or not, Nathan should be fairly easy to replace. Two seasons ago, the Mets were a disaster late in games and missed the playoffs, while the Angels had K-Rod, Francisco Rodriguez, who set the save record for the season. Meanwhile, in Colorado, Brian Fuentes was in the process of losing his job as Rockies closer. Last season, K-Rod was with the Mets and Fuentes was with the Angels. The Mets were a disaster late in games and missed the playoffs, while Fuentes led the league in saves for the Angels. I guess what I'm saying is, it's the team that matters, and not necessarily the closer.
I mean sure, you would like a decent reliever (at least) to fill the role, because that's what a closer is (like I've already mentioned). Teams like the Pirates only have Matt Capps with his 5+ ERA as the closer, but then again, the Royals can use Joakim Soria. Neither team has any bullpen depth though, and it doesn't matter. The Twins do, so you could put Matt Guerrier or Jose Mijares, both with sub 2.50 ERAs in the closer role, and I ebet the Twins wouldn't miss a beat, except for the 66 innings you would get from Nathan. That's the other thing. Nathan pitched 66 innings in 2009. If you assume that the season is 162 9 inning games (pretty close), that means he appeared in 4.5% of the innings this season. How big a role could he possibly have played in the success of the team? That's just a little more than 7 GAMES. What I'm saying is, I hope the Twins feel the need to spend wildly on a closer.
All that said, watching Nathan interviewed, seeing the flecks of gray in his beard and hearing the waver in his voice, I can't help but hope that Joe makes a speedy recovery so he can keep playing the game he loves.

How much money?

Twins blogger Aaron Gleeman wrote on Twitter yesterday: “Presented without comment: Twins spending over $10 million this year on Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Jesse Crain, and Delmon Young.”

Because of the 140 character limit, Mr. Gleeman made no comment. So, let me.

While in some respects, it seems insane to spend that much money on those four guys, like Ryan said yesterday: “What are you going to do?” (By the way, Ryan, I’m pretty sure my office isn’t giving out raises this year, either. Based on inflation, that means we’re actually taking pay cuts…but at least it’s not real pay cuts!)

Nick Punto will make $4.5 million in 2010. Somehow, we just have to get over that. I don’t think it was The Worst Contract Ever, either. With superstars making over $20 million per season (everyone “knows” Joe Mauer will get that; whether in a new contract with the Twins, or in free agency with another team remains to be seen), You can look at it as Nick Punto making ¼ the amount of a superstar. It doesn’t look so bad. It might be a little bit expensive, but at the time, it was before the economy completely tanked, and was reasonable.

So, let’s take Nick Punto out of the equation. Now we’ve got Brendan Harris, Jesse Crain, and Delmon Young making $6.1 million if Young reaches both of his incentives (which is “only” $50,000).

How does the money break down? Harris will make $1.45 million.* Last year, he batted .261/.310/.362, which are not exactly numbers to brag about, but they’re not really numbers to rip apart, either. His fielding seems to be pretty average. You’ve got an average player, and realistically, making an average salary for his years of service. I’m not sure the two-year contract was necessary, and the salary and incentives for 2011 sound reasonable.

*Harris’s incentives for 2011 break down like this: $75,000 for 450 plate appearances in '10; $100,000 for 500, $150,000 for 550, $175,000 for 600 and $175,000 for 650. Frankly, if he reaches 550 plate appearances, I’ll be shocked. If he reaches 500, I’ll merely be surprised.

Delmon Young will make $2.6 million in 2010, with another $50,000 in bonuses if he reaches 600 plate appearances ($25,000 if he reaches 575). His fielding has is notedly poor, but the fact that he managed to end the year with a batting line of .284/.308/.425 impresses me. I know, these guys are professionals, but the kid is 23 years old, and he had to face the death of his mother—from the sounds of it, it was a very quick, sudden illness (It was 3 ½ months from diagnoses to death). I give him a pass for his first half of the year. (He’s never been a patient batter, so the OBP is going to suffer.) Based on his hitting, and average salaries around the league…this sounds like a reasonable, fair contract.

Crain was coming back from arm surgery. The recovery time, according to some, is about 16 months. Incidentally, 16 months after his surgery would’ve been September. His ERA in September and October (including post-season) was 1.13. He gave up eight hits and eight walks (the walks are concerning), and struck out eleven. Frankly, that’s pretty good. The Twins have reason to believe Crain will return to form, and based on his pre-surgery performance, he could become a very valuable member of the bullpen. Can you depend on it? No. But you don’t want to risk losing it, either.

Pretty much, what we have is 16% of the players taking up 12% of the payroll (based on a $90.5 million payroll, which I’ve heard thrown around). The serfs (i.e., non-arbitration players) will make significantly less money than 1/25th of the payroll. The superstars will make significantly more. This leaves the middle ground for the average players. These guys are right in there. If you take Nick Punto out, you’ve got 12% of the players making 6.7% of the salary. Neither of the position players are kept on the roster for their defense. Harris is kept for his versatility, and reasonable bench bat (he may get a full-time position at third base, but that’s part of his versatility). Young is kept for being a poor-fielding, potential-good-hitting corner outfielder. Crain is kept for his potential as a solid member of a much maligned bullpen from 2009.

In short, Mr. Gleeman, I’m not sure that the fact needed any comment. Nick Punto’s contract has been commented on ad naseum, and as we can’t change it, there’s no point. The other three contracts are normal.

Timberwolves update: They have a 1-2 record since I last reported. They’re now at 9-34, or a 20.9% winning percentage. The have the worst record in the West, but New Jersey has the worst record in the NBA, 3-38.

Wild Update: The Wild have a 24-23-3 record, for a 48.0% winning percentage. Petr Sykora seems to be on his way out the door, while formerly concussed Brent Burns may be on his way back into the lineup. He hasn’t played since mid-November, only got back on the ice with the team on Tuesday, but some believe the lad will play tonight. We shall see.

In Other News, It’s Cold When the Temperature is Below Zero

I realize this hardly made any headlines, so you may not have heard that Mark McGwire, former holder of the Most Home Runs in a Season record in Major League Baseball, admitted that he took steroids.

In full disclosure, I’ve taken steroids a few times in my life. Of course, these were prescribed by a doctor, picked up at a pharmacy out in the public. There is nothing illegal about that. (It didn’t stop my friends from harassing me that I had a 50-game baseball suspension, though.)

This is something people have “known” for years, without really knowing it. Mark McGwire claims that steroids
didn’t help him hit home runs and he could’ve done it without steroids. Steroids merely helped him with his injuries, as he was, “A walking M*A*S*H unit.”

In a small way, he’s right. From my vague understanding of the human body (the last time I took a health class was almost 20 years ago, and I’ll admit now that I don’t even remember attending health class my sophomore year of high school. The only reason I know I did is because it was a required class, and I didn’t indiscriminately skip classes), this is what I know. Steroids do not, in themselves, make you stronger. Steroids merely help your muscles recover faster. If I were to simply take steroids, and change no other part of my daily routine, I would have the side effects of steroids but I wouldn’t be bulking on muscles. If I were a gym rat, I would be able to bulk up some muscle, because the muscles would help me recover faster.

Hitting home runs takes an amazing amount of talent, not just related to strength. It doesn’t matter how many steroids I take for strength-building purposes, I will not be able to hit a home run. I have the eye-hand coordination of an infant when it comes to hitting a baseball (or playing video games, but that’s another story for another time). I can’t hit a baseball in general, so adding strength won’t help me hit it at all. The baseball players can already hit a baseball, by default (except Corky “Corky” Miller). Adding strength only helps them hit it further. Adding steroids allows the muscles to recover faster, so they can exercise more and get stronger.

Mark McGwire believes he could’ve hit 70 home runs in a season without steroids. Maybe he’s right, but I disagree. Based on the above, we know that steroids didn’t help him hit the ball. It probably helped him build the strength to hit the ball farther, or at least recover strength to hit the ball farther more often. Beyond that, by his own admission, he was so injured, he needed the steroids to stay on the field. If he couldn’t stay healthy for a season without steroids, why does he think he could have hit 70 home runs without them? Injuries and strength are part of the game. Those who are “fragile” players (oft-injured) generally don’t last long in the game. Joe Crede’s career may be over at age 32 due to injuries. It’s a sad factor of life.

In short, I believe that Mark McGwire has deluded himself. He feels guilty about taking steroids, because he knows it was wrong. He’s only half-right when he says it didn’t help him hit home runs, and he could’ve done it without steroids. He had the eye-hand coordination and reaction times to hit a baseball. He even had the power to hit the ball very, very far. He just lacked the strength to do it as often as he did, so he took steroids. He only wants to concentrate on half the story.

We can all believe what we want. If it helps him sleep at night, great. If it convinces some kids that there’s no point to taking steroids, even better.

Timberwolves update: They have a 1-3 record since I last reported. They’re now at 8-32, or a 20.0% winning percentage. The have the worst record in the West, but New Jersey has the worst record, 3-35.

Wild Update: The Wild have a 24-20-3 record, for a 51.1% winning percentage. They were also in a few fights last night.

I'm Drawing a Blank Here

I have a friend who was quite upset when the Baseball Hall of Fame vote was announced yesterday. While she was upset about Bert Blyleven getting in, she was outraged that there were five blank ballots. This is something my dad and I discussed many years ago, actually. In the discussion, we reasoned that blank ballots were legitimate votes. The voters have to send ballots in; otherwise, it will be presumed they are lost and replacements would be sent out.

When you’re voting for a political office, a blank ballot is pointless. Someone will be mayor/senator/president/etc. If all choices are bad, the voter must decide which is the better of the evils—or start a write-in campaign for a better choice. But there’s no law saying that someone has to be inducted into the Hall of Fame every year—nor should there be. Non-Hall of Fame caliber players shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame simply because they happen to be on a ballot in a weak year. Therefore, if a voter truly feels none of the candidates are worthy of the Hall of Fame, a blank ballot is an acceptable vote.

The thing is, like the MVP and Cy Young vote, the Hall of Fame vote is subjective. You have the “old school” guys, who feel that “wins” determine the Cy Young, RBIs and home runs determine the MVP (and their team making playoffs is the basis for both), and only super-super-stars like Babe Ruth and Willie Mays belong in the Hall of Fame. And then you have guys who feel that any player who had a pretty good year deserves the MVP, and anyone who played fairly well deserves to get into the Hall of Fame. (I know there were fans a few years ago that felt Derek Jeter should be MVP. No one in the AL had an outstanding year, and their argument is that he had been a good player for so many years, he deserved it. I call that the worst argument ever for MVP. There are guys who have won MVPs who don’t belong in the Hall of Fame, simply because that one year was the only year they played outstanding. As well, there are probably guys who deserve to be in the Hall of Fame who never won the MVP/Cy Young, because every year there was someone just a bit more outstanding than them, but overall, they were outstanding.)

It all comes down to how you feel about the Hall of Fame. Do you feel it’s only for the Elite? Or do you feel it’s more for baseball history?

Personally, I’m somewhere between.

As two examples, Roger Maris and Jack Morris are two names that are not in the Hall of Fame that people believe should be.

I would like to see Roger Maris in the Hall of Fame. Sure, he only had a few outstanding years, but I think his 1961 season is infamous—made even more so that the home run record wasn’t until the steroid era that the record was broken (I’m not implying that those that broke the record were on steroids, but the suspicion still stands). Maris held the title of single-season home run leader for longer than Babe Ruth.

Yet, on the same hand, I’m not sure Jack Morris deserves to go in purely for World Series Game Seven in 1991. Not everyone who throws a shut-out deserves to go into the Hall of Fame, no matter how dramatic the game was. The game itself should be in the Hall of Fame, but not the individual players unless they have a career of play to back them up. (And Morris might deserve to be in the Hall on his own merits; my problem is that most people point to Game Seven as the reason Morris should be.)

Really, because it’s subjective, it’s sadly up to the voters to decide whom they think it worthy for the Hall of Fame and who isn’t. But just like all votes, there will always be some voters who are, and I mean this in the politest way possible, idiots.

Timberwolves update: They have a 0-3 record since I last reported. They’re now at 7-29, or a 19.4% winning percentage; back under the 20% mark. The have the worst record in the West, but New Jersey has the worst record, 3-32.

Wild Update: The Wild have a 21-20-3 record, for a 47.7% winning percentage. The Wild are down to two players with concussions, and Brent Burns feels he’s almost ready to return; Pierre-Marc Bouchard is still completely unknown.

I Now Realize the Fun of All-Star Games

So, each year, I usually check out the baseball all-star game. It can usually be pretty entertaining, seeing the best players in baseball play each other, but to me, and I think a lot of people, its not that big of a deal. Even now that "this game counts" and the home league in the World Series is determined from it, it's still not that big of a deal to the average fan, whose team it may or may not matter to (who really knows in July?). It's actually kind of funny, because all it really is is a passing thought after the game. As a White Sox fan, I benefited from the AL's win in the 2005 all-star game, and I remember thinking after the game, "hey, the AL won, and the Sox are doing pretty good this year. If they make it to the World Series, they'll get home field." That was pretty much it, and it worked out well that game 1 was in Chicago on a Saturday night so I got to go.

But I think it was tonight where I realized the true value of an all-star game, beyond any lame gimmick to let the AL have home field every single year in the World Series: They are absolutely awesome to record and then rebroadcast on the MLB Network about 20 years later. Yes, that's right. They serve as a perfect time capsule of the players of the day to show the stars of the era and to remind grown-ups who were kids at the time of the players they grew up with.

My theory has always been that the most impressionable 5 year window for a kid becoming a sports fan is between 6 and 11 years old. As a 6 year old, they are just starting to understand a little more about the teams and individual players, and they usually create their oldest sports memories. By 11, any good future sports fan should be really knowledgeable about the teams and players and have a little bit of history and trends to fall back on after 5 years of solid fandom, supplemented by baseball cards, board games, or video games, depending on the era they grew up (and not having a job or caring about having a girlfriend allows more free time to be dedicated to sports).

Based on this, my impressionable sports window was from 1989-1994. Leaving the conversation on baseball, some of my baseball memories from that period include the 1989 World Series earthquake, the baseball strike, learning to love guys like Carlton Fisk, Frank Thomas, Robin Ventura, and Jack McDowell, learning to hate guys like Jose Canseco, Tony LaRussa, Ryne Sandberg, and Mark Grace, learning to respect guys like Ken Griffey Jr. and Cal Ripken, the destruction of the old Comiskey Park and the opening of the new Comiskey Park, loving every minute of watching the A's get swept in the 1990 World Series (I really hated them back then), seeing the White Sox win a division title and Frank Thomas winning 2 MVPs, and the list goes on and on. Just about every baseball card I own is from this time period and I got even more familiar with players by playing the All-Star Baseball spinner game and playing the primitive Nintendo and Super Nintendo games that actually had MLB teams and players.

So tonight the MLB Network decided to show the 1990 and 1991 All-Star games back to back, which I caught flipping through the channels, and I just couldn't stop watching. Originally, I thought it was funny to see so many members of the Danny Tartabull game playing in these games, which I just posted in the archives, including Danny Tartabull himself, but watching these games really took me back to my days as a 7 and 8 year old watching players that seemed larger than life at the time playing each other, and it was a lot of fun. It really took me back, remembering my baseball cards and silly kid arguments about who is better with my friends. It's also funny to watch games from this era for the awkward moments baseball would probably want us to forget. For example, in the 1990 game, Jose Canseco flew out to Darryl Strawberry, and Strawberry threw out the tagging up runner at home. Heading back into the dugout, he was congratulated by Barry Bonds.....ugh...

So I officially discovered the best part about an all-star game. They are awesome to record and show several years later. I bet there are a lot of 6-11 years out there right now that will sit down and have a ton of fun watching the 2009 all-star game some time in 2028.