Baseball playoff expansion: I am.... torn

People have a clarity of conviction when it comes to the additional two teams in the major league post season, and I wish I could join them in that stance, but I'm just not sure. Originally, I was uncomfortable with the expansion of the post season, because it watered down the post season. If more teams make the postseason, it get's watered down. The long regular season for a few cherished spots in the playoffs is one of the things that make the game unique.
But then, I reconsidered. One of the things about the wild card chase is that it allows some teams to coast in to the post season, assured their spot in a 5 game series. Wild Card teams have been met with a great deal of success since they were introduced in 1993, so there really isn't a stigma for ending up in that spot Now, if you are the best team not to win your division, you can't just skate to the playoffs. There is an impetus to win your division. The best teams have something to play for even as the season winds down, trying to avoid the ignominy of losing the 1 game playoff. The team they would face would have the advantage of aligning their starting pitchers, where as the wild card winner likely would have used their ace the game before. Of course, they would also have an extra day off.
But again, there is the whole idea of watering down the post season. That said, remember that baseball started with 16 teams and 2 teams in the post season. Then, when the Twins won, it was 26 teams with 4 teams in the postseason. It was expanded to 8 teams in the playoffs with the addition of the Rockies and Marlins, meaning 28 teams, 8 spots. If you want to do the math, that is 14, 22 and 20 teams left out of the post season. With 30 teams and 10 teams in the playoffs, we are still leaving 20 teams out, which is pretty much in line with the way it has always been.
I wish there was a better way to do this than a 1 game playoff, but for the life of me, I can't think of one. If anything, I just hope the season starts sooner going forward to accommodate the extra game Right now, that's my biggest sticking point. That and the inevitability of the Twins losing 5 1 game series in a row.

A look at the Wild Card round

There is still football coming up this weekend, and it's the post season! In honor of that, I thought I would change course and do something I rarely do... provide insightful game analysis for the 4 games being played this weekend. Let's take a look at the 4 games to enjoy this weekend.

New Orleans at Seattle: Much has been made about the Seahawks 7-9 record, and how they will only be afterthoughts in the postseason this year, just a team for the Saints to roll over. I couldn't disagree more! I know the Seahwaks haven't done much this season, but they do have a few of the components that may make this an interesting game. First off, it is in Seattle, and the Seahawks are notoriously difficult to play in Washington. Second, they have a young, aggressive defense which, if they get the scheme right, could end up causing Drew Brees and his receivers some problems. Third, they have about 19 running backs, all of which could help keep the ball out of the hands of the Saints. And lastly, they have Matt Hasselbeck, a Super Bowl veteran guiding the way. All that said, I still expect the Saints to win, but I don't think it's going to be the bloodbath many are picking.
PICK:

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts: Going into the playoffs, I desperately wanted the Colts to play the Jets in what I expected to be a much more winnable contest. Peyton Manning doesn't struggle against good defenses. He can out think them and beat them with little problem. This is why the Ravens never seem to beat Indianapolis. The problem the Colts have is with methodical offenses that move the ball down the field. It takes the ball out of the offense's hands, and the Colts have to score. There is added pressure, and it takes the team out of rhythm. The Jets don't have a good methodical offense. Despite the defense, I expect the Colts, and especially Peyton Manning, to be relaxed enough to be successful this weekend.

PICK:

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs: I know I picked the Chiefs to make it to this point, but I also know when to quit when I'm ahead. The Ravens should be able to shut Jamaal Charles down, and the Chiefs passing game is simply too dependent on the run to be effective without him. The Ravens are figuring out how to move the ball, and more importantly, keep the ball. I expect this one to be fairly low scoring, but not close, if that makes any sense.

PICK:

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles: This game has the possibility of being an epic. The Packers had a shootout last year with the Cardinals last year, but are better this year. They have speedy linebackers, which may help to contain Michael Vick. If they can do that, then a healthy Aaron Rodgers should have no problem moving the ball on the Eagles' secondary and Green Bay could win it easily. The Eagles, if Vick is the dual threat people expect, will stay in this game, and it will be a wild one. Still, I expect the Packers have the better tools to win this contest, and will move on from Philadelphia.

PICK:

So that leads to the following games for the Divisional playoffs: 

Indianapolis @ Piitsburgh

Baltimore @ New England

New Orleans @ Chicago

Green Bay @ Atlanta

Let's see how this goes. I expect to be 0-4

Week 17 AFC Playoff Scenarios - Wild Card

Today's games made the AFC playoff picture even muddier than we could ever imagine, but I think I have the playoff scenarios figured out (As of posting, I couldn't find them clearly written anywhere online). The fascinating part of this year's wild card race in the AFC is that the two teams that control their own destiny, the Jets and Ravens, can't back into the playoffs in any scenario. They either win and are in, or lose and are out. Here is each team's scenario for Week 17 and what help (if any) they need to make the playoffs (Like I said, I did this myself so this is what I think....). Also, I'm assuming no ties occur next week.

Jets vs. Bengals
If the Jets win:
- They are in the playoffs
If the Jets lose:
- They are out of the playoffs

Ravens at Raiders
If the Ravens win:
- They are in the playoffs
If the Ravens lose:
- They are out of the playoffs

Broncos vs. Chiefs
If the Broncos win:
- If New York and Baltimore win, it doesn't matter, they are out.
- If only 1 of the 2 (New York and Baltimore) win, Denver is in the playoffs as long either Houston wins or Pittsburgh loses. If Pittsburgh wins and Houston loses, Denver is out
- If both New York and Baltimore lose, Denver is in the playoffs
If the Broncos lose:
- If New York and Baltimore win, it doesn't matter, they are out.
- If only 1 of the 2 (New York and Baltimore) win, Denver is in the playoffs if everyone else in the hunt loses (Houston, Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville)
- If both New York and Baltimore lose, Denver is in the playoffs if at least 2 out of the 3 of Houston, Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville lose.

Texans vs. Patriots
If the Texans win:
- If at least 2 out of the 3 of New York, Baltimore, and Denver win, they are out.
- If New York, Baltimore, and Denver lose, or if only 1 of them wins, Houston is in the playoffs
If the Texans lose:
- They are out of the playoffs

Steelers at Dolphins
If the Steelers win:
- If New York and Baltimore win, it doesn't matter, they are out.
- If only 1 of the 2 (New York and Baltimore) win, Pittsburgh is in the playoffs if Houston loses.
- If both New York and Baltimore lose, Pittsburgh is in the playoffs if Denver loses, or if Denver wins and Houston loses. If Denver and Houston both win, they are out.
If the Steelers lose:
- They are out of the playoffs

Jaguars at Browns
If the Jaguars win:
- If at least 2 of the 5 of New York, Baltimore, Denver, Houston, and Pittsburgh win, they are out.
- If all 5 of those teams lose, or if only 1 wins, Jacksonville is in the playoffs.
If the Jaguars lose:
- The are out of the playoffs

Dolphins vs. Steelers
If the Dolphins win:
- If New York, Baltimore, Houston, or Jacksonville wins, they are out
- If only Denver wins and the 4 teams above lose, of if all 5 teams lose, Miami is in the playoffs
If the Dolphins lose:
- They are out of the playoffs

Short and Sweet

This is going to be short and sweet, ‘cause I’ve gotta get some work done if I hope to make it to this afternoon’s Twins/Mariners game in downtown Minneapolis. Let’s give you a quick update of the three teams about whom playoffs can be discussed. (MLB has played 3 of 162, at most. If anyone has anything more to discuss than they did two weeks ago, they’re psychics.)

The Timberwolves are out of the playoffs. In fact, the first team not in the playoffs in the division (Phoenix) has 19 more wins as of this date. The Timberwolves can’t make up the 24 games they’d need to make the playoffs. The math is complicated, but trust me, I majored in English!

The Wild haven’t been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs (at least last I checked). However, in order for the Wild to make the playoffs with two games left (I’m attending tomorrow!), they need wins in both games, and they need other teams in their conference to cooperate by losing. The other teams have not been cooperating to date, and the Wild have trouble winning multiple games in a row, so hopes are not particularly high.

As for the Swarm lacrosse team, they’re tied for third place in the 6-team division with 3 other teams. Considering the Swarm have scored the least goals and given up the most goals, playoffs seem like they’re going to be a stretch.

Timberwolves update: 24-55 (3-1 since last time, 20-40 since McHale).

Joe Mauer Injury Status: He’s caught bullpen sessions, done some hitting…all that’s left is running. Everyone says that he should be back by the end of April, but these are the same people who insisted he’d be ready for Opening Day.

Scott Baker Injury Status: He was put on the DL just after my posting last Thursday. He will start tonight for the Fort Myers Miracle, in hopes to return to the Twins next week.