NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Final

The 9-7 Giants are your Super Bowl Champions in a season where mediocrity ruled and the only theoretically good team, the Packers, showed their flawed defense was flawed enough to not win it all. Just think, the Super Bowl loser, the 13-3 Patriots, only beat ONE team with a winning record all season, the Ravens, in the AFC Championship game, thanks to a missed field goal.

So yes, the Giants are the champions, but who do the power ranks say the best team is?

drum roll....

It's the San Francisco 49ers. As a fan, it both hurts to see them end up as #1 without a Super Bowl title but also makes me feel good about their chances in the coming years. The Patriots loss in the Super Bowl knocked them out of the top spot, moving up the Niners. The Giants passed the Ravens for #3, but their 9-7 record made it basically impossible to catch either of the 13-3 teams that at least made it to their conference championship games.

The power ranks did pretty poorly predicting playoff game results this year, going only 6-5. In contrast, my randomly picking dog also went 6-5 and my 4 month old son went 7-4 by correctly picking the Giants in the Super Bowl. If nothing else, the playoffs were fun for watching his motor skills develop as he tried to pick up the helmets with his hands.

Here are the final ranks:

Yeah, OK, so these picks are late

I will be completely honest with this one. I thought the Ravens will win the AFC Championship game, and I had thought that before the game began, because the Patriots haven't played well against good teams all year. The Ravens, on the other hand, have played to their opponent all year. With 8 minutes left in the game, I will continue to say the the winner of the AFC championship will be  the Ravens.

(Moments after typing this, Brandon Spikes got a backbreaking INT for the Patriots. Oops.)

In the NFC Championship game, I have to pick the 49ers. It's an easy pick, really. It's going to be rainy in San Francisco, and the Giants aren't a good enough running team to endure the inclement weather. The 49ers, at home, can rely on the West Coast offense. No deep drops should negate the Giants pressure, and Frank Gore is going to be able to run on the Giants just enough. I actually think this is going to be a pretty bad game.

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Divisional Playoffs

I'd like to start the power ranks post by wishing a very happy birthday to....me! Yes, it's my birthday and now I officially have less than a year left in my 20s. Kind of depressing. However, I do have a chance to see my favorite team, the 49ers, make it back to the Super Bowl for the first time since I was in 6th grade this weekend!

Why do I like the 49ers, since I'm from Chicago? Well, since my dad is a south-sider, he grew like the Cardinals and hating the north side Bears. When the Cardinals moved to St. Louis, he starting liking the AFL instead and rooted for the Raiders. As a kid, he always told me bad things about the Bears so I had the freedom to pick my own team. Red was easily my favorite color, and on my 2nd birthday, 27 years ago today, the 49ers won their 2nd Super Bowl with a blowout win over the Dolphins, and I was a fan for life.

Now, I have a son of my own, and the possibility of a weird coincidence can happen. My dad's favorite team, the Raiders, won the Super Bowl at the end of the 1983 season, the year I was born, and now there is a chance that my favorite team can win the Super Bowl the year my son was born. (And if they don't do it this year but somehow win in the next year, I can still say the same fact on the technicality that our favorite teams won during the first full seasons of our son's lives, since I was born 3 days before the 1982 AFC/NFC Championship games and my son was born just before Week 4 this year).

So I guess we can move on to the ranks. The Giants shocking upset of the Packers last week knocked them down to #4, while the Giants moved into the top 5 for the first time since Week 3. The 49ers incredible win over the Saints (I rank it as the #3 most exciting playoff moment in Niners history, behind Super Bowl XXIII and the 1981 NFC Championship, and ahead of the 2002 playoff game against the Giants and the TO catch to beat the Packers in the 1998 playoffs) vaulted them over the Patriots into the #1 spot. The Ravens moved up to #3, while the Saints fell to #6.

The Niners success helped out the rest of their division as well even though their seasons are over. Thanks to strength of schedule boosts, the Seahawks and Cardinals each jumped 2 spots and the Rams climbed out of last to pass the Buccaneers, who truly deserve to be ranked last.

So lets look at the picks for this week. Last week, the Ranks went 3-1, bringing them to 5-3 overall. My son only went 2-2, but he picked the Giants upset, making him 5-3 so far. My dog is Jake the Greek. He went 3-1 again making him 6-2 for the playoffs.

My dog is going with 49ers-Ravens and my son is picking 49ers-Patriots in the Super Bowl. Here are the rank picks:

#2 Patriots over #3 Ravens - Even though they are 2-3 in the ranks, the Patriots hold a wide lead over Baltimore, who have been inconsistent while the Patriots are looking better each week. We'll see if the Ravens superior defense can slow down this offense

#1 49ers over #5 Giants - The big difference here is the fact that the 49ers have an ultra-dominant defense and the Giants are relatively week on D and the Niners went 13-3 and the Giants were only 9-7. The Giants are trying the join the 1979 Rams and the 2008 Cardinals as the worst regular season record teams to make the Super Bowl, and the worst regular season record team to win it.

Here are the full Ranks:

Picking this weekend's games

Without further ado, let's pick some NFL playoff games, eh?


New Orleans at San Francisco: I am torn. This will likely be the best (only?) game of the weekend. Every time I have watched the Saints, they have destroyed their opponents. The last memory I have of the 49ers was a season or two ago, and they simply weren't good. Still, I know the 49ers are all defense, and the Saints struggled on the road. Against all my inner judgement.... Prediction:
 

Denver at New England: Let's see, New England destroyed Denver in Colorado once this season. Tom Brady is an excellent reader of defenses (the thing that Denver relies on). The only reason anyone thinks this game is a toss up is because they want to talk about Tim Tebow..... Prediction:

Houston at Baltimore: The Texans were fortunate to draw the Bengals in round one, no doubt, but they are on a third string QB facing one of the top defenses in the league. Also, I picked the Ravens to the Super Bowl.
Prediction:

New York Giants at Green Bay: The Giants have a history of defeating elite teams when they really shouldn't! The Giants have a history of beating the Packers in the postseason! Prediction....

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 17

I think I need to kick off this post by saying I can't believe we've been doing this for 7 years now! We started this site (well, the old site) on January 5, 2005. Here we are, 3,505 posts later! (mostly by Ryan)

The NFL season has reached the playoffs, and the regular season power ranks are complete, but fear not, just like in previous seasons, the ranks will continue through the playoffs.

One downside to the power rank formula is that it has no way of accounting for teams that play poorly in Week 17 because their playoff spot is locked in. This happened to the Packers this week. Even though they won the game and scored a ton of points, the Lions offense made the Packers bad defense statistically worse and despite finishing 15-1, it cost them the #1 spot in the ranks going into the playoffs. Replacing them is none other than the Patriots, the #1 seed of the AFC. The remaining top 5 teams remained the same (49ers #3, Saints #4, Ravens #5).

In the bottom 5, the Buccaneers managed to swap places with the Rams despite the fact that they got destroyed by Atlanta this week. The rest remained the same (Vikings #28, Redskins #29, Colts #30)

The biggest gainers this week were the Bears, who got a win too little too late and jumped 6 spots to #16, while the biggest losers were the Seahawks, who dropped 6 spots to #15 after losing to the Cardinals and finishing with a 7-9 record. Unlike last year, when that was good enough to make the playoffs, this year it put them 6 games out of first place in their division.

So, now that we are into the playoffs, let's have the power ranks make some predictions! First, let's mention the teams with byes then look at the matchups:
Byes: #1 Patriots, #2 Packers, #3 49ers, #5 Ravens - Ranks pretty much aligned with real life standings here. The Saints were #4 but unfortunately for them were the 3rd best team in the NFC

#11 Texans over #12 Bengals - The difference between these 2 teams is razor thin in the ranks, but the Texans' better overall record and stronger defense gives them the edge

#8 Steelers over #26 Broncos - Wow. This year's Broncos team could be the worst playoff team of all time. They somehow backed into a playoff spot in Week 17 AND finished 8-8. They are currently the lowest ranked AFC West team. A probable first round loss to the Steelers could actually drop them into the bottom 5 next week.

#4 Saints over #6 Lions - This is the highest rated first round matchup, but the edge goes to the Saints due to a better record and recent success. Both of these teams are similar in that they have high powered offenses and weak defenses.

#7 Falcons over #10 Giants - This is another close matchup but the Falcons have the edge for being just a little better than the Giants in every category.

Just like in previous years, I decided to challenge my formula against my dog taking interest in 1 of the 2 mini-helmets. Here are my 3 year-old Golden Retriever's picks. (He picked the whole playoffs, but I'll let him re-pick each round):
Texans over Bengals
Steelers over Broncos
Saints over Lions
Giants over Falcons

Ravens over Texans
Patriots over Steelers
Packers over Giants
49ers over Saints

Ravens over Patriots
49ers over Packers

Ravens over 49ers in Har-Bowl II. (He loves the Ravens, he also picked them in 2008)

Not to be outdone, I also let my 3 month-old son make playoff picks, by putting the 2 helmets in front of him while sitting in his Bumbo seat and having his pick be the one he touches first. Here are his picks:
Texans over Bengals
Broncos over Steelers
Lions over Saints
Giants over Falcons

Ravens over Texans
Broncos over Patriots
Packers over Lions
49ers over Giants

Broncos over Ravens
49ers over Packers

49ers over Broncos - He knows his parents favorite teams apparently. He picked mine over my wife's.

Full Ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 16

It's hard to believe there is only 1 week to go in the regular season. It should be an interesting Week 17 as well. The 49ers are looking to lock up a bye in the NFC while the Falcons and the Lions fight for playoff positioning, and the Giants and Cowboys have an NFC East showdown game (even if the Eagles are probably currently the best team in the division). In the AFC, there is a lot that can still happen. You have the AFC North and West titles on the line and the super confusing Raiders/Bengals/Jets/Titans wild card scenario.

The 49ers jumped back into the top 5 for cooling down the red hot Seahawks. They moved into #3, and pushed back the Saints to #4. The Texans, who all of the sudden seem to have injuries catching up to them, fell back to #8. The Packers, Patriots, and Ravens remained as #1, #2, and #5.

The Colts are out of #32!! Their 2nd win in a row moved them up to #30. Who needs Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck when you have Dan Orlovsky. Replacing the Colts at #32 is the worst team in the NFL. Not the Rams, not the Vikings. The Buccaneers. They've lost 9 in a row. In their 11 losses, they lose by an average score of 34-15. Yet somehow, they beat the Saints and Falcons this year. It's weird that they aren't on the absolute garbage list in the media this year, mostly because they've had their 4 wins for most of the season so haven't been in the talk about the #1 overall pick. Also, the media seems to love Raheem Morris and Josh Freeman, so I think that helps. The Bills big win over Denver moved them out of the bottom 5. Replacing them are the Redskins, who moved down to #29.

We had a shocking amount of movement in the ranks this week despite it being so late in the season. There are a lot of teams surging but are going to fall short of the playoffs and a lot of teams stumbling into the playoffs. The Eagles jumped an amazing 9 spots for beating the Cowboys all the way to #13, but they are mathematically eliminated with the Giants win, who moved up to #14 after jumping 7 spots. The Panthers have also been hot at the end of the season and moved up 6 spots. The biggest losers were the Jets, who dropped 6 spots and probably out of the playoffs, and the Broncos, who have a legit chance to now blow the AFC West.

As far as playoff projections go, all this surging and stumbling have really screwed them up, and we have a bunch of scenarios that are impossible. This is because recent success factors in heavily, and like any good power ranking, they are meant to show who is best now weighing recent success against the entire body of work. So below are the playoffs if the teams that are playing the best right now made it rather than what the scenarios are for this weekend:
AFC
1st Round Byes: #2 Patriots, #5 Ravens
#11 Bengals @ #8 Texans
#7 Steelers @ #15 Chargers
Top 5 Out: #17 Jets, #18 Titans, #20 Dolphins, #21 Broncos, #23 Bills

NFC
1st Round Byes: #1 Packers, #3 49ers
#9 Seahawks @ #4 Saints
#6 Lions @ #13 Eagles
Top 5 Out: #10 Falcons, #12 Panthers, #14 Giants, #16 Cowboys, #19 Cardinals

Here are Playoffs if you use the power ranks to pick the winners of Week 17 games:
AFC
1st Round Byes: Patriots, Ravens
Jets @ Texans
Steelers @ Broncos
Based on: Patriots over Bills, Ravens over Bengals, Steelers over Browns, Texans over Titans, Broncos over Chiefs, Chargers over Raiders, Jets over Dolphins

NFC
1st Round Byes: Packers, 49ers
Lions @ Saints
Falcons @ Giants
Based on: Packers over Lions, 49ers over Rams, Saints over Panthers, Giants over Cowboys, Falcons over Buccaneers

Full Ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 14

Only 3 weeks to go in the regular season, and after the Packers, we have a logjam at the top of the rankings. I'll put my TJ Yates picture up again in honor of the Texans clinching their first ever playoff spot this week. They are still ranked at #2. The Ravens got their 4th win in a row and jumped 2 spots to #3, leapfrogging the Patriots, who moved up to #4. The Saints moved up to #5, replacing the 49ers in the top 5, who dropped down to #7 after losing to the Cardinals.

Speaking of that, I happened to attend that game this week and I realized something. Going to NFL games in person is not as much fun as watching on TV. I like going to MLB, NBA, and NHL games more than watching on TV, but NFL just doesn't do it for me. I get Sunday Ticket at my house, so for about $350 a year I can watch any game I want in my living room, which has comfortable seats, cheap beer, and good company. To go to the Cardinals game, which is about 40 miles from my house thanks to the geniuses who decided to build sports arenas way out in Glendale (its really worked well for the Coyotes, obviously), I had to leave my house around 11:30 AM and didn't get home until around 8 PM thanks to the drive, parking, and traffic, so I didn't see any other game that day other than the 2nd half of the Sunday Night game. At the game itself, I realized how many stupid people there really are in the world. Unlike a lot of other sports, I feel like the crowds at an NFL game are drunker, rowdier, and more hostile (NHL is close, but your average NHL game has less at stake so its a little more tame). I don't think I'd want to take my son around a crowd like that anytime soon. For example, in the 3rd quarter, there were a group of 6 huge 49ers fans that all looked like they just were released from prison trying to pick fights with any Cardinals fan that looked in their direction. It was kind of scary. Oh, and there is nothing more embarrassing to watch than a hardcore Cardinals fan. After almost 25 years of play in Arizona most still don't understand the rules and you have to realize that they are getting overly excited about easily one of the worst 5 franchises in professional sports history (I'd say the worst, but the Clippers exist, for example). Also, the price of NFL tickets is insane. NFL Sunday Ticket is basically the same price as going to just 2 of these lovely experiences each year.

Back to the ranks. The bottom 5 are unchanged. They all suck. Bad.

The biggest gainers this week were the Falcons and Chargers. The Falcons increased their chances of making the playoffs and the Chargers are hanging in the AFC West race. The biggest losers were the Bears and Raiders, who are both 7-6 but just seem like they are absolutely done.

Playoff Projections
AFC
1st Round Byes: #2 Texans, #3 Ravens
#8 Jets @ #4 Patriots
#6 Steelers @ #11 Broncos
Top 5 Out: #14 Titans, #16 Bengals, #17 Chargers, #19 Raiders, #21 Dolphins

NFC
1st Round Byes: #1 Packers, #5 Saints
#10 Lions @ #7 49ers
#9 Falcons @ #12 Cowboys
Top 5 Out: #13 Seahawks, #15 Bears, #18 Giants, #20 Cardinals, #23 Eagles

Full Ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 9

[I am republishing the power ranks because I forgot they had been posted, and covered them with my own crappy posts earlier in the week. - Ryan]


Week 9 was an interesting week in that the early games were very uninteresting yesterday, and the late games all had exciting finishes. From my experience from NFL Sunday Ticket over the past 6 seasons, this usually isn't the case.

The Top 5 teams remained exactly the same this week. With the top 4 (Packers, 49ers, Bengals, Ravens) all winning and Detroit on a bye. Aaron Rodgers gets his picture here yet again this week.

In the bottom 5, the Broncos win over the Raiders moved them up and out of the bottom 5 (and shockingly only 1 game out of first place) and they have been replaced by yet another NFC West team, the Seahawks, who are now #30. The NFC West might be the most lopsided division ever this year. The 49ers are ranked #2 while the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Rams are all at least 5 games out of first and ranked #29, #30, and #31, respectively. The 49ers could mathematically clinch the division after week 11. Just crazy. The Dolphins first win moved them all the way up to #28! Oh, should I even mention the Colts at #32?

The biggest gainers this week were the Cowboys, who managed to jump 8 spots over a bunch of other mediocre teams. The biggest losers were the Chargers, who have now lost 3 in a row and fell back to .500. Does anyone want to win the AFC West?

Playoff Projections
AFC
1st Round Byes: #3 Bengals, #6 Texans
#10 Bills @ #8 Jets
#4 Ravens @ #16 Chiefs
Top 5 Out: #12 Steelers, #13 Patriots, #19 Titans, #20 Raiders, #22 Browns

NFC
1st Round Byes: #1 Packers, #2 49ers
#7 Bears @ #9 Giants
#5 Lions @ #11 Falcons
Top 5 Out: #14 Saints, #15 Cowboys, #17 Eagles, #18 Vikings, #21 Buccaneers

Full Ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 6

This week we have a new #1, and not surprisingly, it's none other than the undefeated Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers. The 49ers moved up to #2 by dethroning the #1 Lions, while the Lions moved down to #3, Ravens moved down to #4, and the Patriots moved up to #5 over the Bills, who lost again this week.

This begs the question....Are the 49ers for real? All of sudden they are 5-1 and running away with the NFC West. They have 5 games left against their miserable division and also get to play Cleveland and the John Beck led Redskins. If they run the table in those games, they are 12-4 and will likely have a first round bye. One thing that makes me feel good about them this year is that they are based in having a strong defense that gets a lot of turnovers, and their offense doesn't make too many mistakes and Alex Smith has turned into a good Trent Dilfer-ish game manager, which is all they need. The offense, though, isn't so ineffective that they can't score points or play from behind. I guess we'll see how it plays out...

The bottom 5 teams remained the same, but they moved positions. The idle Cardinals passed the Jaguars and despite losing 24-3 to the Packers, the Rams jumped 2 spots to #30 thanks to the strength of schedule boost of playing the 6-0 Packers. The Dolphins are now the new #32 team and if you watched the Monday Night game this week, it shows.

The biggest gainers this week were the Bengals, who are surprisingly 4-2 are beating the pathetic Colts. They jumped 6 spots. The biggest losers were the Saints, who dropped 8 spots after losing to the Buccaneers a week after they were embarrassed in San Francisco, and the Redskins, who dropped 8 spots as well after being shut down by the Eagles.

Playoff Projections:
AFC
Byes:#4 Ravens, #5 Patriots
#7 Bills @ #8 Chargers
#6 Bengals @#12 Titans
Top 5 Out: #10 Raiders, #13 Steelers, #17 Jets, #20 Texans, #21 Browns

NFC
Byes: #1 Packers, #2 49ers
#14 Bears @ #9 Giants
#3 Lions @ #11 Buccaneers
Top 5 Out: #15 Saints, #16 Redskins, #18 Falcons, #19 Cowboys, #22 Seahawks

Here are the full ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 5

Week 5 is in the books, and this is usually the time of the year where the "recent success" attribute in the calculation starts to make a difference, as you will see. Dare I try to make playoff projections based on these ranks? Sure, I'll start them this week. You probably won't be browsing the bottom of the October archives come January if they are ridiculously wrong.

This week was interesting in that the 5 five mostly remained in tact. The #1 Lions, #2 Packers, and #4 Bills all won this week, while the #3 Ravens were idle. Even the former #5 Patriots won, but they were passed by yet another surprising team that hasn't made the playoffs in a while....the 49ers, who took over the #5 spot after beating Tampa in their biggest blowout win since the days of Montana and Rice, 1987.

The bottom 5 had a little bit of movement. The Vikings destroyed the Cardinals to get their first win of the year and move out of the bottom 5. Also, the Chiefs got their 2nd win of the year over the lowly Colts to move up. Replacing them are the awful Cardinals and the Jaguars, whose win over the Titans in week 1 looks like an anomaly.

The biggest gainer this week were the Vikings, who jumped 8 spots with a dominating first win. The Steelers jumped 7 spots for beating the Titans and getting back on track. The biggest losers were the Cardinals, for the reasons mentioned above, and the Texans, who lost to an emotional Raiders team playing for Al Davis.

Playoff Projections:
AFC
Byes:#3 Ravens, #4 Bills
#12 Bengals @ #9 Chargers
#6 Patriots @#10 Titans
Top 5 Out: #13 Texans, #14 Steelers, #15 Raiders, #19 Browns, #21 Jets

NFC
Byes: #1 Packers, #5 49ers
#11 Giants @ #7 Saints
#2 Lions @ #8 Redskins
Top 5 Out: #16 Buccaneers, #17 Cowboys, #18 Bears, #20 Vikings, #22 Falcons

Full Ranks:

Let's Talk About the 49ers

I think I have stated on this site a few times that I am a 49ers fan, even though I grew up in Chicago. It may sound like sports blasphemy on my part but following the Sports Guy's "Rules for Being a True Fan" and the revision he recently wanted to make to that in his story about wanting his daughter to be a Celtics fan, it makes sense. Here's why: My dad is old enough that during his childhood there were 2 NFL teams in Chicago, the Bears and Cardinals. In those days, the Bears played in the North Side Wrigley Field while the Cardinals played in South Side Comiskey Park. Much like the White Sox/Cubs rivalry today, and following the Sports Guy's rule #20, you have to pick one to love and one to hate. Since my dad grew up on the South Side, he loved the White Sox and Cardinals and hated the Cubs and Bears. When he was 12 the Cardinals moved to St. Louis, so following part of rule #19, he decided to like the Raiders of the brand new AFL instead of the hated Bears, and still is a fan to this day 50 years later (and still hates the Cubs and Bears). I was born 23 years into Chicago's single NFL franchise run, but it would have been too heartbreaking for my dad to be a Bears fan, so he taught me to hate them as a little kid, and encouraged me to like the Raiders. I did and still do like the Raiders, but I wanted a team to call my own. My favorite color was red and I thought it was the coolest thing in the world that a team that wore red uniforms won the Super Bowl on my birthday, so the 49ers became my favorite team. Little did I know that I chose a franchise that was in the early years of being a dominant Super Bowl contending and winning team over an 18-year period. Also, I know it is a little ironic that I picked the Raiders cross-town rival, but at that time the Raiders were in LA and not Oakland, so it would have been much worse if I had chosen to like the Rams.

So that's my background. My first 18-20 years of 49ers fandom were pretty enjoyable, but the last 8 years have pretty much sucked. If we revisit that Sports Guy story one more time and look at rule #12, if you stack up all of the 5 year grace periods for winning Super Bowls, I have been allowed to complain about them since 2007, which is also the first time I have been able to in my life. Since I don't live in San Francisco, I am beginning to question the city's desire to have a winning team. Imagine if the Steelers had 8 absolutely awful years in a row. The town might explode. Living in Arizona, I know that western cities attitudes towards sports are extremely laid back and not as rabid as it is in the northeast or rust belt cities. Fans see games as entertainment, not life or death, which is probably a healthier way to live. I think the Niners' current problems are rooted in that and the poor ownership that now controls the team.

Ed DeBartolo was the man that put the 49ers dynasty together, seemingly always making the right moves with upper management, coaches, and players for all 23 years that he was owner of the team. He was also in the business of running horse racing tracks and casinos in Louisiana. He eventually got involved with a corruption case involving the governor of Louisiana and was more or less forced to sell the team to his sister in 2000. His sister then immediately allowed her husband and children to run the team straight into the ground.

The reason why I am writing about the 49ers today is because they were in the news almost all day with the talk of Mike Singletary's firing as the head coach. The legendary linebacker brought a great fire and spirit to the team, but if you look at this well written piece from ESPN, he basically didn't have much of a chance to succeed, due to his lack of experience as coordinator for any team and his lack of connections to hire quality assistants for his team. A passionate coach is a great thing for a college team, but in the NFL, you need guys that are masterminds of the x's and o's to succeed. Singletary was nothing more than a big name to get the fans excited that really had no business being a head coach in the NFL (at least until he gets more experience). Let's think about who he replaced: Mike Nolan. He is a fine defensive coordinator, but he was mostly hired because he is the son of former 49ers head coach Dick Nolan, who coached them to a few good seasons in the early 70s. He will mostly be remembered for his sick obsession to wear a suit on the sidelines during a game, instead of his actual coaching. As a defensive minded coach, he was a horrible match with the freshly drafted Alex Smith, and the two clashed all the way until he was fired. Before Nolan, the Niners had great college but proven failure in the NFL coach Dennis Erickson.

The Niners personnel moves have ranged from pretty good, to terrible, to too wishful, to downright arrogant over the past few years. They've managed to build a pretty talented defense anchored by 2007 first-rounder Patrick Willis and have also used the draft to get talented offensive weapons like Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree. They've also had a lot of horrible busts like Kentawn Balmer and almost all of their picks in the early 2000's. On the wishful side, for some reason that I just can't understand, they have been overly loyal to Alex Smith since drafting him #1 overall in 2005. After 6 years of constant injuries, benchings, and inconsistent play (not helped by changing the offensive coordinator every year), isn't it time to pull the plug on this experiment? Are they just sitting around praying that somehow, one day he will make the Niners management actually look smart for drafting him? Besides some defensive freaks, all good teams have good QBs, and the Niners will be nothing until they have one. Some of the Niners signings and moves have been downright arrogant as well. For example, they made Nate Clements the richest defensive player ever heading into the 2007 season, blowing all of their free agent money on this "missing piece" of their championship puzzle. Clements is an ok player, but isn't worth the money he makes on a team filled with holes (and personally won them and cost them their game with the Falcons on a single stupid play this season). They also gave away their #7 overall pick in the 2008 draft and a 4th rounder in 2007 to New England for New England's #28 pick in 2007, probably because they figured their 2007 team would be so unstoppable that their 1st rounder would be in the high 20s in 2008. By the way, New England traded that 4th rounder to the Raiders for Randy Moss. That's a prime example of what a well run team does.

Speaking of the draft, I knew going into Sunday's game with the Rams that this weekend's game against the Cardinals would be their biggest game since 2002. If they would have won, they would need to win this game to be back in the playoffs (and be the worst playoff team of all time), and if they lost, they would absolutely need to lose to the Cardinals to help their draft status. Thanks to an awful NFC/AFC West schedule this year, the Niners have a legitimate chance to end up with the #2 overall pick if they lose this Sunday. They just need to lose ensure at least #5 overall and any win by the Bills, Bengals, or Broncos moves them up a spot for each win. The Bills are playing the Jets, who I imagine will bench their starters in order to rest them up and play the Chiefs instead of the Colts in the first round. The Bengals will probably lose to the Ravens, and the Broncos are playing a dejected Chargers team. If the Niners win, they will probably be picking around #10 overall. So, interim coach Jim Tomsula, your message is clear: Lose to the Cardinals this weekend.

So, I think I've ranted enough. In summary, here is what I think the Niners have to do to get back on top (assuming I can't convince the Yorks and the NFL to sell the team back to DeBartolo).
1. LOSE THIS SUNDAY TO THE CARDINALS
2. Hire a legitimate GM/Team President that actually knows something about football
3. Hire a head coach that can work on this pathetic but talented offense that has enough connections to hire some decent and experienced coordinators and assistants.
4. Get rid of Alex Smith
5. Get a new QB, either a veteran that has worn out his welcome (Orton? McNabb? Kolb?) or try your luck again in the draft, but if you do, have a system in place to develop a young QB
6. Don't blow all of your free agent money on a single, above average player, unless its a very good QB
7. Don't get too full of yourselves thinking you can just waltz to an NFC West title because of a new coach and quaterback next season. As proven by this year, being everyone's obvious pick to win the division means nothing when you can't get it done on the field.

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 4

So once again this week I missed my goal of posting these ranks on a Tuesday, but at least this week they are up before most of the games are over. My picture to the right for this week may seem a little odd, but it represents how the Kansas City Chiefs became the #1 ranked team this week: Sitting at home, going out to dinner, going to a club...whatever is going on here. The other 2 undefeated teams in the NFL, the Bears and Steelers, both went down in week 4, leaving only the Chiefs as the last remaining undefeated team.

The Bears loss was a tough one. They got dominated by the Giants defense, leaving both their starting and backup QB's with injuries. The Steelers finally got outplayed by someone, the Ravens, and only fell back to the #2 spot. The Jets, who absolutely murdered the Bills, jumped up to the #3 spot, while the Falcons stayed put at #4 after beating the #32 49ers thanks to a careless fumble by Nate Clements after the "game winning" interception. The Patriots move into the 5th spot after routing Miami.

On the low end, our 4 winless teams, the Lions, Panthers, Bills, and 49ers make up the bottom 4, while the Raiders are our lowest ranked 1 win team. Some may be surprised that the 49ers are the lowest of the 4 winless teams, since they nearly beat New Orleans and Atlanta, but in reality they have been truly pathetic this season. Their offense is terrible, ranking 31st in the league in scoring, their defense, which was pretty solid last year, only ranks 27th in the league in points allowed, and they keep turning the ball over while getting few turnovers themselves, ranking 30th in the league in turnover ratio. These are the kind of numbers we saw out of the Rams last year and the Lions 2 years ago, so we'll see how the remaining 12 games go for them.

As far as the big gainers and losers for this week go, the Patriots and Chargers both jumped 8 spots after blowout wins, and the Ravens jumped 7 spots for beating the Steelers. The Titans were the big losers, falling 11 spots for losing to Denver, and the victims of the those Patriots and Chargers blowouts, the Dolphins and Cardinals, each fell 9 spots.

Here are the full ranks:
1. Chiefs - 80.79 - +1
2. Steelers - 76.55 - -1
3. Jets - 74.27 - +3
4. Falcons - 73.22 - Even
5. Patriots - 68.17 - +8
6. Saints - 65.12 - +3
7. Bears - 64.78 - -4
8. Packers - 63.94 - Even
9. Texans - 62.45 - +3
10. Ravens - 59.70 - +7
11. Chargers - 58.89 - +8
12. Colts - 56.14 - -5
13. Buccaneers - 55.02 - +3
14. Bengals - 54.98 - -4
15. Eagles - 54.57 - -4
16. Titans - 54.54 - -11
17. Rams - 53.67 - +3
18. Broncos - 52.16 - +3
19. Redskins - 51.85 - +4
20. Seahawks - 46.27 - -5
21. Jaguars - 44.87 - +6
22. Giants - 42.63 - +6
23. Dolphins - 42.33 - -9
24. Cowboys - 41.37 - -2
25. Browns - 39.59 - +1
26. Vikings - 36.68 - -2
27. Cardinals - 34.94 - -9
28. Raiders - 32.22 - -3
29. Lions - 22.70 - Even
30. Panthers - 16.44 - +1
31. Bills - 14.78 - -1
32. 49ers - 13.08 - Even

NFL Power Ranks: Week 2

So a wild and crazy week 2 is in the books, and we had a gigantic shakeup in our power rankings. This is why its pretty tough to judge a season by 1 game. After 2 weeks, we have 9 2-0 teams, 14 1-1 teams, and 9 0-2 teams. Six of the top eight teams from week 1 lost in week 2, and some fell extremely far.

Now, before I reveal the new #1 ranked team, if I asked you who has the longest winning streak in the NFL since last season, including last year's playoffs, who would you guess? I doubt the San Francisco 49ers would come to mind, but they do indeed have the longest winning streak at 4 games. Yes, somehow, someway, my favorite team, the 49ers are ranked #1. The Niners got to beat up on some NFC West scum the past 2 weeks, and as a result they have the #4 ranked scoring defense in the NFL and a 2-0 record. You could definitely look down on them because of their level or competition, but they have shut down a high powered offense that played in the Super Bowl last year and a team that was everyone's favorite sleeper pick for a big rebound in 2009. Their offense is still lacking, but they managed to do just enough in week 1 and got 2 huge runs from Frank Gore in week 2. Mike Singletary has them playing hard, Patrick Willis is a beast, and they have a wonderful experienced secondary. Will the Niners stay on top? I doubt it, but it will be fun to see...

These new ranks set up our first #1 vs. #2 matchup of the season, as Brett Favre's Minnesota Vikings climb all the way up to #2 after their blowout win of Detroit. The Vikings have beaten probably 2 of the worst 3 teams in the NFL so far, but this early in the season, those are the only stats we can base their rank on. Checking in at #3 is the Falcons, who got another nice win over the former #32 team, the Panthers. The Saints and their explosive offense climbed to number 4 after their blowout win of the McNabbless Eagles. The Giants win over Dallas moves them up to #5.

On the flip side of things, some of the crap is already sinking to the bottom, but there are a few surprises. The Bucs stay at #28, the Chiefs move into the bottom 5 at #29 after losing to the Raiders. Surprisingly, last year's #1 seed in the AFC, the Titans, have fallen all the way to #30 after losing a shootout to the Texans. The Panthers less disastrous loss moves them up a spot to #31 while the horrible Browns fall to #32.

There were some big gainers and losers this early in the season. The Saints rose 10 spots to #4, and the 49ers, Broncos, Vikings, and Texans rose 8 spots each. Five teams had double digit drops after losses of varying proportions. They were the Eagles (-11 to #12), Chargers (-12 to #16), Seahawks (-14 to #19), Steelers (-14 to #20) and Cowboys (-15 to #23). We'll see if some of these teams that have been expected to do well can turn things around next week.

Here are the complete ranks:
1. 49ers - 83.55 - +8
2. Vikings - 76.45 - +8
3. Falcons - 75.81 - -1
4. Saints - 74.11 - +10
5. Giants - 73.79 - +6
6. Jets - 71.61 - +1
7. Broncos - 71.37 - +8
8. Ravens - 70.89 - +5
9. Colts - 64.27 - +7
10. Patriots - 57.02 - -7
11. Packers - 56.29 - +1
12. Eagles - 55.56 - -11
13. Bengals - 54.76 - +4
14. Raiders - 54.60 - +6
15. Cardinals - 54.35 - +4
16. Chargers - 53.63 - -12
17. Redskins - 52.02 - +1
18. Bills - 51.85 - +3
19. Seahawks - 50.16 - -14
20. Steelers - 49.11 - -14
21. Texans - 47.34 - +8
22. Bears - 46.94 - Even
23. Cowboys - 44.76 - -15
24. Dolphins - 26.77 - Even
25. Rams - 24.19 - +5
26. Jaguars - 23.55 - -3
27. Lions - 22.42 - Even
28. Buccaneers - 22.26 - Even
29. Chiefs - 21.85 - -3
30. Titans - 21.05 - -5
31. Panthers - 20.40 - +1
32. Browns - 17.58 - -1

(AP Photo/Marcio Sanchez)

Negativity is No Fun

So my post the other day sucked. After reading it again, I worded it so poorly that I just decided to delete it. After thinking more about what I wrote (lesson learned: don't blog angry), my logic was just wrong. I'm less of a baseball fan today than I was a few years ago because I have a pretty full career and family schedule these days, not the other way around. Just think, if you sit and watch every single one of your team's games during the season, you are dedicating around 500 hours a year (over 20 solid days) to baseball fandom. I still love my White Sox win or lose, and in reality I watch them when I can, but now that I'm not a college kid anymore, family and career come first.

Outside of Ryan's fiery response to me, we talked about how it's funny that our angry rants always seem to get more hits than any other type of post we write, unless it's about Erin Andrews, of course. The post I wrote unfortunately was the post that pushed the Victoria Times over the 30,000 hit mark all time (thanks to everyone for checking us out). It made me realize that negativity and hatred are pretty strong on the internet, whether it be Boston fans claiming Jeter has AIDS, racist websites, blogs talking about how our president is an evil oil obsessed tyrant, and other blogs that talk about how our Democrats are tree hugging Commies that want to take your guns away. None of this is healthy discussion, but it sure gets attention.

One reason why Ryan wanted me to write here was to be the "bad guy" that rips on the Twins, but it's actually harder than it seems. So since I'm taking a grassroots approach to fighting internet negativity starting today, I'm going to reword my attacks on them as compliments. Let's see how it works: The Twins have a lot of home grown talent, and they handle their payroll in a very intelligent way. In fact, they will once again be very high on my bang for the buck ratings this year. They always have a great minor leaguer up their sleeves, and I think their lack of big names can cause arrogant teams like the White Sox to take them lightly. Their style of play is frustrating for the opposing fans to watch, but it's effective. As Ryan said, taking that page out of the Twins playbook is what helped the White Sox so much in 2005 (along with unbelievably good pitching). Another thing I admire about the Twins is that guys like Delmon Young can go there and behave, leading to good team chemistry and a happy clubhouse, while high paid teams sometimes have horrible chemistry and are very outspoken in a bad way. I really only dislike the Twins because they are usually standing in the way of my favorite team from making the playoffs. Other than that, their lack of power hitters and personalities for most of my life have made them pretty uninteresting to me. And if they have fun personalities, blame ESPN, FOX, and TBS for not telling me about them, because I don't live in Minnesota.

Let's try to give compliments to teams that I could never root for: Notre Dame had a nice win today over Purdue, and an impressive history. Once Michigan figures out the spread offense, they will be a force to be reckoned with. Here's the hardest one: If the Cubs win the World Series this year, they will definitely deserve it, because they look like they are the best team.

I want to take more of an objective approach towards sports, and just enjoy the games and of course, the stats, and not let sports get me so frustrated. I grew up loving the 49ers, still do, but I actually enjoy the NFL more since they started to suck about 9 years ago. It gave me a chance to appreciate the talent on other teams, and enjoy watching all the games, instead of worrying if they would be a threat to the Niners. I can honestly say I don't hate any NFL teams anymore, and that makes watching more fun because I'm not disappointed if a team I hate wins. A Niners win brightens my day, but even if they lose, I had a great day watching football.

I think the approach I have toward the NFL is the approach that more hardcore sports fans and angry blog readers should take, and I'm going to try to apply it over to baseball and college football (already do it for the NBA and NHL). Hopefully it will at least lead to some better posts.

One more note: Screw you, Cubs. I can have 1 team that I love to hate, right?

Is It a Blog?: Quick Hits #3

Originally posted on "Is It Sports?" Ryan and I go back to our roots and post discussion on the upcoming 49ers-Texans game to determine the #1 pick in the 2006 draft, which everyone thought would be Reggie Bush. Things worked out well for just about everyone involved. The Texans got the pick and picked up Mario Williams to anchor their defense. The 49ers ended up drafting Frank Gore, who has had a much better career so far, and Reggie Bush found a role on a winning team, but has pretty much been a bust.

Ryan: I think the NFL should instate a lottery as well, so we don't have to worry about games like San Fran vs Houston, and having both teams trying to lose
Steve: yeah this year could be a good argument for it
Ryan: I could really see that game ending in a tie
Ryan: 0-0
Steve: and maybe just because they suck that bad
Ryan: Well, if you are a wide receiver, you catch the ball and you are running downfield seeing nothing but green, don't you just fall down?
Ryan: or go out of bounds
Ryan: the only player I see trying hard is Domanick Davis or Kevan Barlow, or whoever they have as a running back
Steve: yeah
Ryan: Actually, if I'm Houston, I would only want that first pick to trade it for some semblance of an offensive line... Davis can be a serviceable back if you give him an offensive line... just trade down and pick Greg Eslinger from Minnesota as a center and be happy with that
Steve: that's what I've been saying too
Steve: no one agrees with me on that though
Ryan: Well, for the first time in perhaps 6 months, we have agreed on something sports related
Ryan: of course, if they trade out of that spot and Bush becomes a legend, they will be ridiculed until the end of time
Steve: yeah but they're the Texans
Steve: not like they won't be anyways