Yeah, OK, so these picks are late

I will be completely honest with this one. I thought the Ravens will win the AFC Championship game, and I had thought that before the game began, because the Patriots haven't played well against good teams all year. The Ravens, on the other hand, have played to their opponent all year. With 8 minutes left in the game, I will continue to say the the winner of the AFC championship will be  the Ravens.

(Moments after typing this, Brandon Spikes got a backbreaking INT for the Patriots. Oops.)

In the NFC Championship game, I have to pick the 49ers. It's an easy pick, really. It's going to be rainy in San Francisco, and the Giants aren't a good enough running team to endure the inclement weather. The 49ers, at home, can rely on the West Coast offense. No deep drops should negate the Giants pressure, and Frank Gore is going to be able to run on the Giants just enough. I actually think this is going to be a pretty bad game.

Picking this weekend's games

Without further ado, let's pick some NFL playoff games, eh?


New Orleans at San Francisco: I am torn. This will likely be the best (only?) game of the weekend. Every time I have watched the Saints, they have destroyed their opponents. The last memory I have of the 49ers was a season or two ago, and they simply weren't good. Still, I know the 49ers are all defense, and the Saints struggled on the road. Against all my inner judgement.... Prediction:
 

Denver at New England: Let's see, New England destroyed Denver in Colorado once this season. Tom Brady is an excellent reader of defenses (the thing that Denver relies on). The only reason anyone thinks this game is a toss up is because they want to talk about Tim Tebow..... Prediction:

Houston at Baltimore: The Texans were fortunate to draw the Bengals in round one, no doubt, but they are on a third string QB facing one of the top defenses in the league. Also, I picked the Ravens to the Super Bowl.
Prediction:

New York Giants at Green Bay: The Giants have a history of defeating elite teams when they really shouldn't! The Giants have a history of beating the Packers in the postseason! Prediction....

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 17

I think I need to kick off this post by saying I can't believe we've been doing this for 7 years now! We started this site (well, the old site) on January 5, 2005. Here we are, 3,505 posts later! (mostly by Ryan)

The NFL season has reached the playoffs, and the regular season power ranks are complete, but fear not, just like in previous seasons, the ranks will continue through the playoffs.

One downside to the power rank formula is that it has no way of accounting for teams that play poorly in Week 17 because their playoff spot is locked in. This happened to the Packers this week. Even though they won the game and scored a ton of points, the Lions offense made the Packers bad defense statistically worse and despite finishing 15-1, it cost them the #1 spot in the ranks going into the playoffs. Replacing them is none other than the Patriots, the #1 seed of the AFC. The remaining top 5 teams remained the same (49ers #3, Saints #4, Ravens #5).

In the bottom 5, the Buccaneers managed to swap places with the Rams despite the fact that they got destroyed by Atlanta this week. The rest remained the same (Vikings #28, Redskins #29, Colts #30)

The biggest gainers this week were the Bears, who got a win too little too late and jumped 6 spots to #16, while the biggest losers were the Seahawks, who dropped 6 spots to #15 after losing to the Cardinals and finishing with a 7-9 record. Unlike last year, when that was good enough to make the playoffs, this year it put them 6 games out of first place in their division.

So, now that we are into the playoffs, let's have the power ranks make some predictions! First, let's mention the teams with byes then look at the matchups:
Byes: #1 Patriots, #2 Packers, #3 49ers, #5 Ravens - Ranks pretty much aligned with real life standings here. The Saints were #4 but unfortunately for them were the 3rd best team in the NFC

#11 Texans over #12 Bengals - The difference between these 2 teams is razor thin in the ranks, but the Texans' better overall record and stronger defense gives them the edge

#8 Steelers over #26 Broncos - Wow. This year's Broncos team could be the worst playoff team of all time. They somehow backed into a playoff spot in Week 17 AND finished 8-8. They are currently the lowest ranked AFC West team. A probable first round loss to the Steelers could actually drop them into the bottom 5 next week.

#4 Saints over #6 Lions - This is the highest rated first round matchup, but the edge goes to the Saints due to a better record and recent success. Both of these teams are similar in that they have high powered offenses and weak defenses.

#7 Falcons over #10 Giants - This is another close matchup but the Falcons have the edge for being just a little better than the Giants in every category.

Just like in previous years, I decided to challenge my formula against my dog taking interest in 1 of the 2 mini-helmets. Here are my 3 year-old Golden Retriever's picks. (He picked the whole playoffs, but I'll let him re-pick each round):
Texans over Bengals
Steelers over Broncos
Saints over Lions
Giants over Falcons

Ravens over Texans
Patriots over Steelers
Packers over Giants
49ers over Saints

Ravens over Patriots
49ers over Packers

Ravens over 49ers in Har-Bowl II. (He loves the Ravens, he also picked them in 2008)

Not to be outdone, I also let my 3 month-old son make playoff picks, by putting the 2 helmets in front of him while sitting in his Bumbo seat and having his pick be the one he touches first. Here are his picks:
Texans over Bengals
Broncos over Steelers
Lions over Saints
Giants over Falcons

Ravens over Texans
Broncos over Patriots
Packers over Lions
49ers over Giants

Broncos over Ravens
49ers over Packers

49ers over Broncos - He knows his parents favorite teams apparently. He picked mine over my wife's.

Full Ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 1

Over the past 4 years, after each week in the NFL season we have posted power rankings. In case you haven't seen it before, unlike most power rankings, which are based mostly on opinion, ours are based on cold, hard numbers. Basically, I came up with a formula that calculates power rankings each week based on record, recent success, strength of schedule, strength of division, offensive and defensive rankings, and the all important turnover ratio. In the past, the ranks have been a pretty decent way to predict games, and usually the Super Bowl champ turned out on top at the end of the year, which is always good. Usually around week 7 or 8, I use it to project playoff positioning, which has worked out better I expected.

So it is what it is. If nothing else, its a fun way to further analyze the NFL and imagine crazy playoff matchups. What it isn't is a good way to judge good teams after week 1, as we've seen some future bottom dwellers have a nice win in week 1 or 2, only to fall hard.

We may have this situation this year, as our #1 teams after week 1 our (drumroll) the Balitmore Ravens and Buffalo Bills! Why are they at the top? It's pretty simple. They both had the most dominant wins in Week 1 as the Ravens forced 7 turnovers to blow out the defending AFC Champs and the Bills absolutely destroyed the defending AFC West Champ Chiefs in Kansas City. Our 3rd place team is team that also hasn't made the playoffs in over a decade, the Lions. They are ranked high because my "recent success" input includes some data from the previous season at the end, and if you didn't notice, the Lions finished 2010 red hot and kept it up to start 2011. The defending Super Bowl Champ Packers and perennial contender Patriots round out the Week 1 top 5.

One funny thing about the bottom 5 is that they include 4 playoff teams from last year. The Steelers are sitting at #29 and Chiefs at #31 for the reasons mentioned above. The Saints are #28 despite their exciting loss on Thursday and the Falcons are sitting at #32 after getting pounded by the Bears. Both teams finished last season with a bad stretch run and horrible playoff losses. The only non-2010 playoff team in the playoff team is the Browns, who sucked at the end of 2010 and kept it alive by losing the Bengals on Sunday, who I predicted to finish 0-16 in my NFL preview (got that one wrong).

Here are the full ranks
1. (tie) Ravens - 79.03
1. (tie) Bills - 79.03
3. Lions - 78.79
4. Packers - 77.50
5. Patriots - 75.97
6. Jets - 75.00
7. Bears - 73.31
8. Bengals - 72.26
9. Raiders - 70.32
10. 49ers - 70.16
11. (tie) Redskins - 66.94
11. (tie) Texans - 66.94
13. Chargers - 66.13
14. Cardinals - 64.35
15. Eagles - 62.90
16. Jaguars - 57.10
17. Vikings - 39.27
18. Cowboys - 37.90
19. Titans - 36.13
20. Colts - 35.65
21. Dolphins - 32.58
22. Giants - 31.61
23. Buccaneers - 31.29
24. Broncos - 30.65
25. Seahawks - 30.48
26. Rams - 30.00
27. Panthers - 28.87
28. Saints - 26.94
29. Steelers - 26.61
30. Browns - 25.65
31. Chiefs - 22.26
32. Falcons - 19.84

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 15

The power ranks have been pretty certain on who the top teams in the NFL are over the past few weeks, and again this week there was not much movement. The Falcons and Patriots both improved to 12-2 to stay at #1 and #2, but the Patriots are closing the gap. The Steelers lost to the Jets, but were so far ahead of the #4 Saints going into this week, that they stayed at #3. The Saints, who lost to the Ravens, didn't fare as well, dropping to #7 after losing to the Ravens, who despite being a solid team all year, finally cracked the top 5 for the first time all season in Week 15. The Eagles capitalized on the Saints loss and moved up to #4.

We had some movement on the bottom thanks to some of the bottom 5 teams winning. In a clash of the titans in Carolina, the Panthers got their 2nd win of the season over the #29 Cardinals to move into the #31 spot, dropping the cards to #30. The Bengals also won, moving them up to #29. The Seahawks control their own destiny to win the NFC West, yet are ranked #28. Amazing.

This week we saw 3 teams jump 5 spots in the ranks. The Colts moved to #13 after beating the Jags and taking control of the AFC South. The Lions played wild card spoiler 2 weeks in a row by beating Tampa. The Titans finally showed some life and beat the Texans, jumping them in front of a lot of bunched up teams. The biggest loser this week by far were the Jaguars, who fell 8 spots after losing control of the AFC South, and falling behind a bunch of other mediocre to bad teams.

Playoff Projection:
NFC
First Round Byes: #1 Falcons, #4 Eagles
#9 Giants @ #6 Bears
#7 Saints @ #19 Rams
Top 5 Out: #12 Packers, #14 Buccaneers, #18 Cowboys, #20 Lions, #23 49ers

AFC
First Round Byes: #2 Patriots, #3 Steelers
#10 Jets @ #8 Chiefs
#5 Ravens @ #13 Colts
Top 5 Out: #11 Chargers, #15 Raiders, #16 Browns, #17 Dolphins, #21 Titans

Full Ranks:
1. Falcons - 82.74 - Even
2. Patriots - 82.40 - Even
3. Steelers - 71.40 - Even
4. Eagles - 69.66 - +1
5. Ravens - 68.19 - +1
6. Bears - 65.86 - +4
7. Saints - 65.75 - -3
8. Chiefs - 64.70 - Even
9. Giants - 64.10 - -2
10. Jets - 63.88 - +1
11. Chargers - 62.03 - +1
12. Packers - 57.03 - -3
13. Colts - 54.18 - +5
14. Buccaneers - 50.21 - -1
15. Raiders - 49.05 - +4
16. Browns - 47.68 - -1
17. Dolphins - 46.62 - -1
18. Cowboys - 45.39 - +2
19. Rams - 44.97 - -2
20. Lions - 44.71 - +5
21. Titans - 44.35 - +5
22. Jaguars - 43.71 - -8
23. 49ers - 39.89 - -2
24. Texans - 38.90 - -2
25. Bills - 38.78 - +2
26. Vikings - 36.33 - -2
27. Redskins - 31.37 - -4
28. Seahawks - 31.29 - Even
29. Bengals - 30.26 - +1
30. Cardinals - 26.64 - -1
31. Panthers - 24.94 - +1
32. Broncos - 21.89 - -1