Picking this weekend's games

Without further ado, let's pick some NFL playoff games, eh?


New Orleans at San Francisco: I am torn. This will likely be the best (only?) game of the weekend. Every time I have watched the Saints, they have destroyed their opponents. The last memory I have of the 49ers was a season or two ago, and they simply weren't good. Still, I know the 49ers are all defense, and the Saints struggled on the road. Against all my inner judgement.... Prediction:
 

Denver at New England: Let's see, New England destroyed Denver in Colorado once this season. Tom Brady is an excellent reader of defenses (the thing that Denver relies on). The only reason anyone thinks this game is a toss up is because they want to talk about Tim Tebow..... Prediction:

Houston at Baltimore: The Texans were fortunate to draw the Bengals in round one, no doubt, but they are on a third string QB facing one of the top defenses in the league. Also, I picked the Ravens to the Super Bowl.
Prediction:

New York Giants at Green Bay: The Giants have a history of defeating elite teams when they really shouldn't! The Giants have a history of beating the Packers in the postseason! Prediction....

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 15

15 weeks down, and 2 weeks to go. This week so some top teams tumble, and it caused a shakeup in our top 5. The Packers finally got their first loss, but they remained as the #1 team (as they should have) but the #2 Texans and #3 Ravens both lost, dropping them to #4 and #5, while the Patriots and Saints moved up to #2 and #3. The #7 49ers Monday night win over the #6 Steelers moved the Niners up to #6 while the Steelers dropped back to #8. Thanks to losses by the Texans, Ravens, and Steelers, the Patriots are now in the driver seat for home field throughout the playoffs (great....)

The Colts got their first win of the year, but remained dead last in the rankings. The Redskins win over the Giants not only probably ruined the Giants season but also moved them out of the bottom 5. Replacing them are the Bills, who just 10 weeks ago were a top 5 team. They have fallen very, very hard.

The biggest gainers this week were the Panthers, who moved up 6 spots for knocking off the Texans, and the Cardinals, who are 7-7 all of the sudden. This week's biggest losers were the Broncos, Bears, and Raiders who all dropped 5 spots. The Broncos are still leading the AFC West despite losing, but now have the Chargers lurking behind them. The Raiders blew a golden opportunity to move up in the standings. The Bears are just done. It doesn't really matter if Cutler or Forte come back at this point.

Playoff Projections:
AFC
1st Round Byes: #2 Patriots, #4 Texans
#11 Jets @ #5 Ravens
#8 Steelers @#13 Chargers
Top 5 Out: #14 Bengals, #16 Broncos, #17 Titans, #19 Dolphins, #23 Chiefs

NFC
1st Round Byes: #1 Packers, #3 Saints
#9 Lions @ #6 49ers
#7 Falcons @ #12 Cowboys
Top 5 Out: #10 Seahawks, #15 Cardinals, #18 Panthers, #20 Bears, #21 Giants

Full Ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 13

It seems like the NFL season just started in some ways, but we are actually already through week 13. The lurking Patriots aren't lurking so much anymore. They jumped 2 spots up to #3 for their scarily close win over the Colts (they got a "recent success" bump, winning their 4th in a row). The Packers remained at #1 *yawn*. The TJ Yates led Texans remained as #2 after surprisingly beating the 7-4 Falcons. The 49ers clinched the NFC West, but dropped to #4 as the Patriots leapfrogged them. The Ravens fell to #5 based on the Patriots move despite winning.

In the bottom 5, the Chiefs and Chargers moved out of the bottom 5 and right back into the awful AFC West division race. Replacing them are the Vikings and Redskins, who seem long overdue for being in the bottom 5. The Buccaneers, Rams, and Colts remained in the bottom 5, taking the last 3 spots. Speaking of the Colts, are we actually going to have a 16-0 and 0-16 team in the same season?

The biggest gainers this week are the Panthers, who jumped 7 spots and seem to be the "bad team that rallied at the end and will get a lot of hype next year" team from 2011. The Chargers jumped 6 spots for their blowout win over Jacksonville, while the Chiefs and Titans also jumped 5 spots. The biggest losers were the Bengals, who are getting a tough schedule reality check finally and throwing the AFC Wild Card race wide open. The Lions also dropped 5 spots, but stayed alive in the NFC playoff race as seemingly every single 7-4 team in the NFL lost this week. Actually I just did, in fact, they all did (6 for 6).

Playoff Projections:
AFC
1st Round Byes: #2 Texans, #3 Patriots
#10 Titans @ #5 Ravens
#7 Steelers @ #11 Broncos
Top 5 Out: #12 Jets, #13 Raiders, #17 Dolphins, #18 Bengals, #21 Browns

NFC
1st Round Byes: #1 Packers, #4 49ers
#14 Lions @ #6 Saints
#8 Bears @ #9 Cowboys
Top 5 Out: #15 Falcons, #16 Seahawks, #19 Cardinals, #20 Panthers, #22 Giants

Full Ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 12

Feels like those Thanksgiving Games were a long time ago doesn't it? It turns out some of the most significant games of Week 12 were on Thanksgiving day. The Packers improved to 11-0 and remained as the #1 ranked team this week, but the 49ers had their 8 game winning streak ended in Baltimore right around the time everyone was in a turkey coma. This loss by the 49ers caused them to drop to #3, while the Ravens moved up a spot to #4. Replacing the 49ers at #2? Why the TJ Yates led Houston Texans of course! This is turning into a very odd situation. Matt Leinart taking over a 7-3 team was bizarre enough, but a 5th round draft pick rookie taking over an 8-3 team? This is either going to end horribly or Yates will go on to win the Super Bowl a la Tom Brady in 2001 and Matt Schaub will be playing somewhere else next year. The former #3 Bears got beat in Oakland without Jay Cutler and fell out of the top 5, replaced by always lurking Patriots....

On the bottom side, the Panthers and Redskins got wins this week, which was good enough to move them out of the bottom 5. The Buccaneers and Chargers continued their slide but switched positions. Replacing the Panthers and Redskins were the Rams and Chiefs. At least Missouri can look forward to SEC football next year. The Chiefs have had an interesting run. They managed to climb to the middle of the pack a few weeks ago and are again pretty much the laughing stock they were in September.

The biggest gainer this week were the Redskins, who finally got a win and jumped some sliding teams. The Raiders and Cardinals also moved up 4 spots. The biggest losers were the Giants, who got destroyed by the Saints and fell out of the playoff picture, and the above mentioned Chiefs.

Playoff Projections:
AFC
1st Round Byes: #2 Texans, #4 Ravens
#12 Bengals @ #5 Patriots
#10 Steelers @ #13 Raiders
Top 5 Out: #14 Broncos, #15 Titans, #16 Jets, #17 Dolphins, #21 Browns

NFC
1st Round Byes: #1 Packers, #3 49ers
#9 Lions @ #6 Cowboys
#7 Bears @ #8 Saints
Top 5 Out: #11 Falcons, #18 Giants, #19 Seahawks, #20 Cardinals, #24 Eagles

Full Ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 10

Thanks to some top teams going down and 4 of the bottom 5 winning, along with a fair share of blowouts, we finally got a lot of movement in the power rankings this week. No, the Broncos aren't ranked #1 now, but somehow, someway Tim Tebow managed to climb the Broncos to the top ranked AFC West team in just a few short weeks.

With wins again this week, the top 2 teams, the Packers and 49ers are still in place, but the Bengals loss to the Steelers dropped them down to #5 and the Ravens shocking loss to Seattle dropped them to #6. The Lions got destroyed by the Bears, bumping them down to #10, while the Bears jumped up to #4. Also, with another win this week, the Texans broke into the top 5, moving up to #3. We'll see how they do with Matt Leinart now...

The Colts suck more than just about any team could suck. Now that that's out of the way, we had a ton of movement on the bottom, with all 3 NFC West teams that were in the bottom 5 last week winning, and the Dolphins getting their 2nd win of the year over Washington. The Rams remained in the bottom 5, but moved up to #28, but the other 3 teams moved up and were replaced by some interesting teams. The Chargers, who have now lost 4 in a row and a nice lead in the AFC West, are now #29. The Panthers dropped back to #30 after a blowout by the Titans, and the Redskins, who were #5 after week 2, are now all the way down to #31.

The biggest gainers this week were the Cowboys, who jumped 8 spots to #7, followed by the above mentioned Broncos. The Vikings, who ran into the Green Bay buzzsaw on Monday Night, fell 8 spots to #26. The fading Chargers and Bills dropped 8 spots

Playoff Projections
AFC
1st Round Byes: #3 Texans, #5 Bengals
#12 Steelers @ #9 Patriots
#6 Ravens @ #17 Broncos
Top 5 Out: #13 Jets, #15 Titans, #16 Bills, #18 Raiders, #19 Jaguars

NFC
1st Round Byes: #1 Packers, #2 49ers
#8 Giants @ #7 Cowboys
#4 Bears @ #11 Saints
Top 5 Out: #10 Lions, #14 Falcons, #20 Eagles, #23 Cardinals, #25 Buccaneers

Full Ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 9

[I am republishing the power ranks because I forgot they had been posted, and covered them with my own crappy posts earlier in the week. - Ryan]


Week 9 was an interesting week in that the early games were very uninteresting yesterday, and the late games all had exciting finishes. From my experience from NFL Sunday Ticket over the past 6 seasons, this usually isn't the case.

The Top 5 teams remained exactly the same this week. With the top 4 (Packers, 49ers, Bengals, Ravens) all winning and Detroit on a bye. Aaron Rodgers gets his picture here yet again this week.

In the bottom 5, the Broncos win over the Raiders moved them up and out of the bottom 5 (and shockingly only 1 game out of first place) and they have been replaced by yet another NFC West team, the Seahawks, who are now #30. The NFC West might be the most lopsided division ever this year. The 49ers are ranked #2 while the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Rams are all at least 5 games out of first and ranked #29, #30, and #31, respectively. The 49ers could mathematically clinch the division after week 11. Just crazy. The Dolphins first win moved them all the way up to #28! Oh, should I even mention the Colts at #32?

The biggest gainers this week were the Cowboys, who managed to jump 8 spots over a bunch of other mediocre teams. The biggest losers were the Chargers, who have now lost 3 in a row and fell back to .500. Does anyone want to win the AFC West?

Playoff Projections
AFC
1st Round Byes: #3 Bengals, #6 Texans
#10 Bills @ #8 Jets
#4 Ravens @ #16 Chiefs
Top 5 Out: #12 Steelers, #13 Patriots, #19 Titans, #20 Raiders, #22 Browns

NFC
1st Round Byes: #1 Packers, #2 49ers
#7 Bears @ #9 Giants
#5 Lions @ #11 Falcons
Top 5 Out: #14 Saints, #15 Cowboys, #17 Eagles, #18 Vikings, #21 Buccaneers

Full Ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 7

Better late than never right? With a bunch of byes and a lot of top teams playing bottom teams, this was a pretty uneventful week for the power ranks. The Packers improved to 7-0 and remained the #1 team, while the idle 49ers stayed as #2. Despite losing in ugly fashion to the Jaguars, the Ravens actually moved up to #3 with Detroit losing a 2nd game in a row to Atlanta. With the Lions losing and falling to #5, the idle Patriots moved up to #4. See? Pretty boring...

The bottom only had a little big of movement as well. The Colts 62-7 loss proved that they truly are the worst team in the league, and the rankings now show that. The Dolphins narrow loss to the Broncos may have proved they are the best winless team, so they moved up to #30, dropping the Rams to #31. The Jaguars surprising win over Baltimore moved them out of the bottom 5, replaced by the Broncos, even though they won.

The biggest gainer this week was the Texans, who blew out the Titans to take command of the AFC South, while the Saints and Bears also jumped 7 spots. The biggest losers were the Raiders and Titans, who looked like pretenders with their blowout losses this week.

Playoff Projections:
AFC
1st Round Byes: #3 Ravens, #4 Patriots
#9 Bills @ #12 Texans
#6 Bengals @ #15 Chargers
Top 5 Out: #11 Steelers, #14 Jets, #17 Browns, #19 Raiders, #20 Chiefs

NFC
1st Round Byes: #1 Packers, #2 49ers
#7 Bears @ #8 Saints
#5 Lions @ #10 Giants
Top 5 Out: #13 Falcons, #16 Cowboys, #18 Buccaneers, #22 Redskins, #23 Seahawks

Full Ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 6

This week we have a new #1, and not surprisingly, it's none other than the undefeated Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers. The 49ers moved up to #2 by dethroning the #1 Lions, while the Lions moved down to #3, Ravens moved down to #4, and the Patriots moved up to #5 over the Bills, who lost again this week.

This begs the question....Are the 49ers for real? All of sudden they are 5-1 and running away with the NFC West. They have 5 games left against their miserable division and also get to play Cleveland and the John Beck led Redskins. If they run the table in those games, they are 12-4 and will likely have a first round bye. One thing that makes me feel good about them this year is that they are based in having a strong defense that gets a lot of turnovers, and their offense doesn't make too many mistakes and Alex Smith has turned into a good Trent Dilfer-ish game manager, which is all they need. The offense, though, isn't so ineffective that they can't score points or play from behind. I guess we'll see how it plays out...

The bottom 5 teams remained the same, but they moved positions. The idle Cardinals passed the Jaguars and despite losing 24-3 to the Packers, the Rams jumped 2 spots to #30 thanks to the strength of schedule boost of playing the 6-0 Packers. The Dolphins are now the new #32 team and if you watched the Monday Night game this week, it shows.

The biggest gainers this week were the Bengals, who are surprisingly 4-2 are beating the pathetic Colts. They jumped 6 spots. The biggest losers were the Saints, who dropped 8 spots after losing to the Buccaneers a week after they were embarrassed in San Francisco, and the Redskins, who dropped 8 spots as well after being shut down by the Eagles.

Playoff Projections:
AFC
Byes:#4 Ravens, #5 Patriots
#7 Bills @ #8 Chargers
#6 Bengals @#12 Titans
Top 5 Out: #10 Raiders, #13 Steelers, #17 Jets, #20 Texans, #21 Browns

NFC
Byes: #1 Packers, #2 49ers
#14 Bears @ #9 Giants
#3 Lions @ #11 Buccaneers
Top 5 Out: #15 Saints, #16 Redskins, #18 Falcons, #19 Cowboys, #22 Seahawks

Here are the full ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Final

Another NFL season is in the books, and unfortunately my randomly picking dog got the outcome of the Super Bowl right, and the power ranks got it wrong. However, the power rank formula at least worked well enough to put the Packers on top to end the season, while the Steelers moved back to #3 and the Patriots got bumped up to #2. Everyone from #4 down stayed put.

There isn't much else to discuss with this season's final power ranks (other than if I will need to change my formula to adjust for a lockout next year) so let's take a closer look at the end of this NFL season. I think there were some bizarre things that happened over the past few weeks and playoffs...

First, I think these 2 scenarios have been brought up other places, but it is interesting to think about 2 seemingly random games that could have had an impact on the Super Bowl matchup. First, remember when Steve Johnson dropped that game winning pass in OT and then blamed God for it? That was against the Steelers. If he catches that pass, the Steelers would have been the 6 seed playing on the road in Indy and the Ravens would have had the bye. Let's assume the Steelers beat the Colts and the Jets beat the Chiefs. The Jets would have gone to Baltimore instead of New England and the Steelers would have gone to New England. The other key to the Super Bowl matchup was the Lions. Yes, the Lions. In Week 15, they won their first road game since October 2007 as part of an impressive 4 game win streak to end the season. In that game, they beat Tampa. If Tampa just would have beaten the Lions at home, they would have been the final wild card and the Packers would have been out of the playoffs.

Now, let's look at some odd playoff scenarios. Of course, we had the 7-9 Seahawks beat the defending Super Bowl Champs in the first round, but that has been discussed to death. An interesting side note to this is at that point, it was pretty much inevitable that the Packers would beat the Eagles, allowing the Bears to play Seattle in the 2nd round. The Bears seemed like one of the most undeserving #2 seeds in NFL history, mostly because of Cutler's moping, the Packers' injuries, and their very unimpressive way of winning games all season. It just seemed to make sense that they only needed to beat a 7-9 team at home in the snow to get to the NFC Championship game. Another interesting thing that happened this year is that both #1 seeds were ousted in the first round by the #6 seed that they beat earlier in the season. For the Falcons, they barely got past the Packers in Atlanta and the Packers answered by destroying them. For the Patriots, they absolutely embarrassed the Jets late in the season (the Jets beat them early on), the Jets spent all week trash talking, and somehow, someway, they go into Foxboro and knock out the clear favorite to win the Super Bowl heading into the playoffs.

Now, let's talk a little more about the Super Bowl Champs. The Packers had a very odd journey this year, plagued by injuries and disappointing losses. They were an early season Super Bowl favorite (Ryan and I both picked them to at least make it there), but they trailed the Bears in the NFC North almost all season. They also had 3 losses over the last 6 weeks (to #1 seeds Atlanta and New England and an awful Aaron Rodgers-less loss to the Lions) but won when it counted, beating the Giants and Bears to get into the playoffs with a 10-6 record. Since they were a preseason darling and won those last 2 clutch games, the Packers were given the "sleeper" benefit-of-the-doubt tag heading into the playoffs. Their matchup with Philly was seen as being able to go either way, partly because they beat the Eagles (with Kevin Kolb) in week 1. Heading into Atlanta, I think the Falcons' history was working against them and again, the Packers were perceived as having a mediocre to good chance at winning. I think the general consensus was with the Pack heading into the NFC Championship as well, because of all that was said about the Bears above. So incredibly (at least to me) the Packers were the favorite heading into the Super Bowl, despite being a 6 seed playing a 2 seed, having a 10-6 record, loaded with injuries, playing a team with 2 recent Super Bowl wins, and getting there by beating a bunch of NFC teams that laid down and died for them. And guess what? They won. And with that win, they tied the record for worst W-L record to win the Super Bowl, with the 1988 49ers, who also had a lot of injuries early in the season but got healthy late.

Speaking of those 1988 49ers, I found it pretty funny how undramatic the final drive by the Steelers in the Super Bowl was. If you can remember all the way back to Super Bowl XXIII, Joe Montana led the Niners on a 92 yard TD drive (when he only needed a field goal) with 34 seconds left to win the game. Ben Roethlisberger is no Montana, but the feeling in the stadium and by the announcers seemed pretty hopeless when the Steelers got the ball, needing a TD to win with 2 minutes to go. Sure, he had less time than Montana did, but even though I just said he is no Montana, just 2 years ago he led the Steelers to a win in Super Bowl XLIII with a game winning TD drive. Big Ben didn't disappoint the announcers or fans though, and before you knew it, Rodgers was taking his knee.

Here are the final power ranks:
1. Packers - 79.87
2. Patriots - 78.53
3. Steelers - 73.15
4. Ravens - 70.83
5. Jets - 69.93
6. Falcons - 69.71
7. Buccaneers - 64.42
8. Chargers - 61.31
9. Bears - 59.91
10. Lions - 58.82
11. Colts - 58.27
12. Giants - 54.90
13. Chiefs - 54.33
14. Eagles - 53.20
15. Saints - 52.46
16. Raiders - 51.67
17. Cowboys - 45.06
18. 49ers - 42.65
19. Rams - 42.01
20. Titans - 40.13
21. Texans - 39.63
22. Seahawks - 38.72
23. Dolphins - 37.15
24. Bengals - 36.25
25. Jaguars - 35.93
26. Redskins - 35.60
27. Vikings - 33.76
28. Cardinals - 33.09
29. Browns - 32.52
30. Bills - 32.05
31. Broncos - 27.69
32. Panthers - 24.58

Turnovers are, like, a big deal

Let's take a look at some of the stats from the Super Bowl yesterday:
Total Yards: Pittsburgh 387, Green Bay 338

Yards per carry: Pittsburgh 5.5, Green Bay 3.8

Time of Possession: Pittsburgh 33:25, Green Bay 26:35

With all of those stats, one thing is very clear. Pittsburgh dominated the game. If they keep running the ball, they will keep it out of Aaron Rodgers' hands and likely keep driving the field for more points.

Of course, there were these two stats that ran counter to that conclusion

Rushes: Pittsburgh 23, Green Bay 13

Turnovers: Pittsburgh 3, Green Bay 0

I'm not claiming to be a smart guy when it comes to football, but it seems pretty apparent that the Steelers would have been well served to keep the ball on the ground, especially as two of those 3 turnovers were interceptions. Either way, however, there is no doubt that the turnovers were the main issue in the game. While the Packers ended up the victors in north Texas this year, at least I will always know that they were physically beaten by the Steelers. Can I count that as my being right? No?
Oh well, congrats to Green Bay.

Finally, the Super Bowl

I really don't have much to add from my prediction post last week, which is part of the problem for media members, I'm sure. Two whole weeks to fill sportscasts, ramping up to biggest sporting event in the American sports year, and the biggest stories are that the Packers had some logistical issues with the team photo, Hines Ward wore a cowboy hat and Ben Roethlisberger took his O-Line out to dinner. But all that said, I feel with the big game tomorrow, I must comment on it at least in brief.
- People are aking WAY too big a deal out of Maurkice Pouncey's injury. This is a team that went 3-1 with out their QB, kept winning without the defensive player of the year, and we are worried about a rookie center? I am not changing my pick. The Steelers are simply a better team than the Packers, and that will not change because Pouncey is out.
- I don't know when it happened, but at some point, the most annoying habit in sports coverage went from the media's obsession Brett Favre to the media's obsession with the media's obsession with Brett Favre. I mean, every time I see a Super Bowl article or prop bet or anything, there is always a "how many times will they mention Brett Favre?" reference. OK, we get it, the media is obsessed with Brett Favre. You can stop obsessing about the obsession. I think I just blew your mind, didn't I?
- I think Brett Keisel could get a gig promoting Gnomeo and Juliet. Never has a long flowing beard been less manly than when an animated movie comes out about little bearded men in a Shakespeare influenced movie.

Obligatory Super Bowl post OVER

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Conference Championships

The computerized power ranks saved face in the conference championship games, picking both the Steelers and Packers correctly. It also just so happened to elevate the Steelers above both New England and Green Bay for the #1 spot heading into Super Bowl XLV. The Packers remained at #2, while the previous #1 Patriots managed to fall back to #3. The Jets, who lost the AFC Championship game, swapped places with the eliminated Ravens, falling back to #5, and the Bears dropped to #9 for losing the NFC title game, pushing Tampa and San Diego up 1 spot each.

Something just dawned on me about the Bears NFC Title Game loss. Take a look at what is happening to the city of Chicago right now. Also, remember the news from Chicago last week? I can only draw one conclusion from this: Jay Cutler is apparently the chosen one and God is punishing the city of Chicago for burning his jersey in effigy after getting injured in the NFC Title game. I guess that could qualify as miracle #1. If Cutler wins the Super Bowl and actually cracks a smile while doing it some day (and if he happens to be Catholic) he can qualify to be a Saint some day....and I'm not talking about the kind from New Orleans.

So, observations from last week aside, the power ranks (6-4) are picking the Steelers to edge out the Packers in the Super Bowl. On the flip side, my 2 year-old Golden Retriever (also 6-4) has picked the Packers. So this Super Bowl is for all the marbles: Super Bowl Champion, #1 finish in the Power Ranks, and probably most important of all, can a randomly picking dog make better playoff picks than my power ranking calculation. We'll find out this Sunday.

Here are the full ranks. Like last week, every team from #10 down remained even this week so I won't bother to mark the change.
1. Steelers - 80.05 - +2
2. Packers - 78.87 - Even
3. Patriots - 78.54 - -2
4. Ravens - 71.03 - +1
5. Jets - 69.97 - -1
6. Falcons - 69.72 - Even
7. Buccaneers - 64.45 - +1
8. Chargers - 61.31 - +1
9. Bears - 59.78 - -2
10. Lions - 58.70
11. Colts - 58.27
12. Giants - 54.89
13. Chiefs - 54.33
14. Eagles - 53.18
15. Saints - 52.49
16. Raiders - 51.69
17. Cowboys - 45.05
18. 49ers - 42.64
19. Rams - 42.01
20. Titans - 40.16
21. Texans - 39.63
22. Seahawks - 38.72
23. Dolphins - 37.17
24. Bengals - 36.43
25. Jaguars - 35.93
26. Redskins - 35.59
27. Vikings - 33.64
28. Cardinals - 33.09
29. Browns - 32.70
30. Bills - 32.07
31. Broncos - 27.69
32. Panthers - 24.60

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Divisional Playoffs

So last week was a pretty rough week for the power rankings making predictions. Also, the Patriots' loss after dominating the NFL for the previous 9 weeks or so really screwed things up. I'm hoping that somebody could actually mathematically unseat them with a win this week so we at least have the #1 ranked team in the Super Bowl. The rankings only predicted 1 game right in the divisional playoffs after going 3/4 in the wild card round. The only one it got right was the Bears, the obvious pick. My dog outpicked me, picking the Bears and Packers but missing the Ravens and Patriots.

With each of the previously top 3 ranked teams losing last week, we were in for a shakeup this week. The Patriots are barely holding on to the #1 spot still, despite being out of the playoffs. The team who beat them, the Jets, moved up to #4. The Steelers moved up to #3 with their win, while the Ravens fell 3 spots to #5. The Packers moved up 3 spots to #2, while Falcons fell 3 spots to #6. The Bears, who are still kind of on the outside looking in, only moved up 2 spots to #7 by beating Seattle. The Seahawks stayed at #22. All of the movement this week involved the playoff teams, with the exception of San Diego and Tampa, who dropped a spot because of the Bears' win. Usually a strength of schedule change causes some other eliminated teams to flip around. Not this week.

So without further ado, here are the power ranks (4-4) and my dog's (5-3) picks for this week:
Power Ranks:
#2 Packers over #7 Bears
#3 Steelers over #4 Jets

Jake the Golden Retriever:
Packers over Bears
Jets over Steelers

A Jets and Bears win would be devastating for the power ranks. They would not only be 4-6 at picking playoff winners, but the Patriots would probably be #1 heading into the Super Bowl. Wins by the Packers and Steelers will probably be enough to jump New England.

Full Ranks - All teams from #10 down stayed even so I'm not going to type the change this week for them:
1. Patriots - 78.76 - Even
2. Packers - 78.01 - +3
3. Steelers - 74.47 - +1
4. Jets - 71.44 - +2
5. Ravens - 70.92 - -3
6. Falcons - 69.69 - -3
7. Bears - 66.17 - +2
8. Buccaneers - 64.44 - -1
9. Chargers - 61.31 - -1
10. Lions - 58.75
11. Colts - 58.29
12. Giants - 54.91
13. Chiefs - 54.33
14. Eagles - 53.18
15. Saints - 52.48
16. Raiders - 51.69
17. Cowboys - 45.06
18. 49ers - 42.63
19. Rams - 42.01
20. Titans - 40.15
21. Texans - 39.66
22. Seahawks - 38.76
23. Dolphins - 37.36
24. Bengals - 36.32
25. Jaguars - 35.93
26. Redskins - 35.61
27. Vikings - 33.69
28. Cardinals - 33.09
29. Browns - 32.60
30. Bills - 32.27
31. Broncos - 27.39
32. Panthers - 24.62

I shouldn't worry

I mentioned earlier this week that I was worried about the prospect of a Packers-Vikings NFC Championship. This shouldn't cause any concern for me, however. Let me tell you why. The Packers play the Cardinals. Everyone seems to be thinking that the Packers really will beat the Cardinals because they obliterated them in week 17.
Yeah, about that. Kurt Warner hardly played, and the Cardinals first teamers didn't spend much time on the field. The Packers showed way too much of themselves in the defeat of Arizona, so it was like a practice, a practice where they got to see the opponents' game plan.
All the while, the only injury that the Cardinals had on offense was to Anquan Bolden. The Cards, to their benefit, have Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston and Early Doucet, as well as Beanie Wells who is learning to catch the ball. And they will have a real quarterback throwing them the ball this week.
As for the defense, the Cardinals didn't spend much time playing defense. Expect them to see how the Packers have been beat previously this season. Aaron Rodgers will be blitzed into oblivion as the Cardinals expose the porous offensive line. They didn't do that in their first meeting. Last week's game was an example of "holding things back", and I can't believe people aren't recognizing this.
Oh, and the Bengals will beat the Jets too.

Position in the Spotlight: Wisconsin

The next largest market for the Position in the Spotlight brings us to Milwaukee. Milwaukee is an interesting sports market because the most popular team in town...isn't in town. You have to head up north to Green Bay, home of the Packers, for that. In my opinion, a cheesehead is a cheesehead, no matter what city you live in, so this Position in the Spotlight entry will cover the entire state of Wisconsin.

When making the pick for each city, I think the first thing you need to take into consideration is what is the most popular sport in town, which in turn tells you the most popular team in town. Some cities are fairly equal, but in Wisconsin, football is king. Sure, the state has seen 1 championship each in baseball and basketball (Braves in 1957 and Bucks in 1971) but the Packers were so good and so popular in the early days of the NFL, that as teams migrated from towns like Decatur and Dayton to big cities, the Pack stayed put, and are still there today. Now, you pretty need to narrow it down to 2 spots within the Packers.

Currently, there is no doubt that Packers QB is the Position in the Spotlight because of all of the drama that Brett Favre caused, but in reality, the Packers have only really had 2 great QBs, Favre and Bart Starr. Aaron Rodgers has some huge shoes to fill right now, but it will be interesting to see what the expectations are for Packers QBs in the future. Over the course of Packers history, though, there is one position that may have even bigger shoes to fill, and that is Green Bay Packers Head Coach.

Historic Lambeau Field. The Vince Lombardi Trophy. What do these things have in common? They were both legendary Packers coaches. Over the 90 year history of the team, the Packers have only had 14 head coaches. Curly Lambeau started the tradition of great Packers coaches when he started serving as player-coach in 1921. He wound up coaching the Packers for 29 years, leaving with 6 NFL championships in 1949. He is known for helping to popularize the forward pass in the NFL, having witnessed it in action at Notre Dame under Knute Rockne. The 1950s were pretty rough on the Packers, but Gene Ronzani was the first to push for the Packers to wear their famous green uniforms.

In 1959, Vince Lombardi was next to step in line to try to achieve what Lambeau accomplished, and he turned the organization around. In just 9 seasons as head coach, he won 5 championships, including the first 2 Super Bowls. Only John Madden and some guy that coached in the 20s have a better winning percentage than Lombardi, and he was 9-1 all time in the playoffs. He could possibly be the most famous coach in NFL history, and is still quoted frequently. The Super Bowl Trophy was named after him shortly after his death.

The 24 years that followed Lombardi's departure threw a wet blanket on just about any legacy left by Lambeau and Lombardi, but the Packers still had some intriguing head coaches. Dan Devine left the Packers for Notre Dame, where he won a national championship with Joe Montana. Legendary 60s QB Bart Starr coached the team from 1975-1983. He wasn't all that great as a coach, but he is definitely a celebrity in Green Bay. Starr was replaced by another famous Packer, Forrest Gregg, who also led the Bengals to the Super Bowl in 1981 before going to Green Bay.

Everything started to change again in Green Bay in 1992, when Mike Holmgren and Brett Favre came to town. Holmgren led the Packers to the playoffs 6 out of 7 years with the team, and made 2 trips to the Super Bowl, winning the first one. He turned the Packers into a force to be reckoned with as the great 49ers and Cowboys teams of the early 90s started to decline. After Holmgren left, the Packers still had a reasonable amount of success under Mike Sherman, but were not as dominant as they were under Holmgren. Mike McCarthy is the current head coach, and the heat is on him now not for trying to live up to the greatness of past coaches, but because he had a negative 7 win swing after helping to run Favre out of town last year.

Honorable Mention:
Green Bay Packers Quarterback: Like I mentioned before, this was a tough call. Favre's legacy will live on for a very long time, and he left much more recently than Holmgren and especially Lombardi. Right now this definitely is the position in the spotlight, but if the Packers go another couple of decades without a great QB like between Starr and Favre, those expectations will start to fade, and Packer fans have almost always had at least an interesting head coach. Ten years from now, Coach Favre?
Milwaukee Bucks "Big Man": The Bucks have had some good "big men" over the years, especially in the early 70s when they had the legendary Oscar Robertson and maybe the even more legendary Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as teammates. In the early 80s, they had hall of famer Bob Lanier, and in the late 80s, they had Terry Cummings. In the mid-late 90s, they had Glenn Robinson, and currently they are led by Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva. This is probably the first time ever the Bucks have been mentioned on this site.

Brett Favre tomfoolery

Let's talk about Brett Favre. Hypothetically, let's talk about Brett Favre. Let's go ahead and say that the Packers cut him and he went out and signed with one of the NFC North teams. How would the fan base react? Let's poke around the division.

Minnesota: What? No! He's the most hated person in Minnesota sports! We're doing so good with our team, We have a great running game, and a pretty good defense, and an awesome running game! I'm sure Tarvaris will be fine this year. All he has to do is hand the ball off! We have a fantastic running game! I don't know that I would be able to sleep, knowing that my team's fate was being influenced by Brett Favre. Besides! We don't need him! Wonderful running game!

Chicago: I know that he's been such a mortal enemy for so many years, but Jesus, we were really beginning to think that Kyle Orton was the answer to our quarterback problems. Kyle Orton! I mean, we brought in Kordell Stewart for a year! Seriously, we've never had a quarterback. The best in our history was like, Jim McMahon. That's not very good. So yeah, Brett Favre. Whatever.

Detroit: We still have a football team?

The Packers are still the team to beat in the NFC Central

Steve mentioned it when 49ers picked Kentwan Balmer Saturday. Sometimes, teams are picking players so their team can win now. Mike Nolan, on the hot seat in San Francisco clearly subscribed to that thinking when drafting Balmer, feeling that a dominant defense this season would get him the wins needed to get over the hump, buying him more time to develop an offense. The Vikings, who traded several picks for NFL sacks leader seem to be of the same opinion. Here's the problem. They're wrong.
Instead of noticing the glaring need to develop a passing game of any sort, they tried to fix a problem that, frankly, wasn't much of a problem in the first place. They had a poor pass defense, statistically, because they had such an elite run defense. Offenses had no choice but to take to the air. They were going against Darren Sharper, one of the top safeties in the league, and Antoine Winfield, one of the best corners, but if you throw it enough, every once in a while, you're going to complete something downfield. Call it the Brett Favre principle.
So, the Vikings signed Madieu Williams and traded for Jared Allen (who the Pioneer Press accurately if unfortunately compared to Carl Eller), giving up most of their high value picks for Allen. You would think that this would satisfy Brad Childress's asinine goal of building a defense and completely destroying his offense. I figured that they would draft one of the top receivers still on the board in the second round, or perhaps a quarterback. That's when the draft got hilarious.
The Vikings gave up their fourth round pick and swapped second rounders with the Eagles in order to jump ahead of divisional foes Chicago and Detroit. Surely, this meant they were going to select a quarterback, since thats what the Bears clearly needed, and the Lions could use a youngster behind John Kitna. Then the Vikings picked another safety, Tyrell Johnson from Arkansas State. Not even the good Arkansas.
The Vikings traded up to get a player that is not going to help their team this year (barring injury) and totally gave up their draft picks. This indicates that, since they have no youth to build on, they think they can win this year. And the final piece, the one they needed to move up to get was a back up safety. Yup. No other problems. A nickelback is the solution to all of their problems.
So, everyone in their right minds thought that the Vikings traded up to get a quarterback, and they didn't. So that meant the Bears had to, right? Nay. They go for a running back nobody has ever heard of, outside of Tulane University. So, then, the Lions surely were going to -- nope, inside linebacker. The analysts all said this was a Matt Millen pick, which means "retarded" to most of us, but to them probably meant inside linebacker. So let's review. The Vikings traded up to draft a player that was not needed ahead of two teams that were also needing the same thing the Vikings REALLY needed, then those other two teams drafted players at other positions anyways. Then, about 15 picks later, the Packers picked Brian Brohm. Even if Brohm and Aaron Rodgers work out at quarterback, they can trade one down the road. So, yeah, the Packers are probably the only team in the conference that has a front office that prepares for the draft in a way other than sniffing glue. That should give them the conference next year. And several years after that.
(Yes, the Vikings drafted John David Booty in the 5th round, but if anyone believes anything other than that being a lucky break, I commend you for your optimism.)