NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Final

The 9-7 Giants are your Super Bowl Champions in a season where mediocrity ruled and the only theoretically good team, the Packers, showed their flawed defense was flawed enough to not win it all. Just think, the Super Bowl loser, the 13-3 Patriots, only beat ONE team with a winning record all season, the Ravens, in the AFC Championship game, thanks to a missed field goal.

So yes, the Giants are the champions, but who do the power ranks say the best team is?

drum roll....

It's the San Francisco 49ers. As a fan, it both hurts to see them end up as #1 without a Super Bowl title but also makes me feel good about their chances in the coming years. The Patriots loss in the Super Bowl knocked them out of the top spot, moving up the Niners. The Giants passed the Ravens for #3, but their 9-7 record made it basically impossible to catch either of the 13-3 teams that at least made it to their conference championship games.

The power ranks did pretty poorly predicting playoff game results this year, going only 6-5. In contrast, my randomly picking dog also went 6-5 and my 4 month old son went 7-4 by correctly picking the Giants in the Super Bowl. If nothing else, the playoffs were fun for watching his motor skills develop as he tried to pick up the helmets with his hands.

Here are the final ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Conference Championships

The AFC and NFC Championship games seem like ancient history now don't they? I'm not even that mad at Kyle Williams anymore. As both a White Sox and 49ers fan, the Williams family is destroying my fun as a sports fan (Kyle is White Sox GM Kenny Williams son, if you didn't know). Kyle fumbles away a trip to a Super Bowl, Kenny signs Adam Dunn to a long term contract. Fun, huh?

Anyway, I couldn't hate this Super Bowl matchup more. New York vs. Boston? Great. Plus we are dealing with an unbelievable amount of hate-ability and arrogance here. I don't even need to talk about Brady and the Patriots, and the Giants have got to be the most overconfident 9-7 team of all time, don't they? Plus, Eli Manning is technically the good guy here, but let's not forget that he and his dad threw a tantrum when the Chargers drafted him #1 over all, and his dad specifically wanted him to play for the Gaaaaahhhnts (stretch it out with a Mississippi accent). So yeah, Eli Manning is a douche too. But you know what, I'll watch it, because it's the Super Bowl. I've avoided as much of the hype as possible on TV, and it's felt great.

So let's just do the Power Rank picks right now. Last week, the ranks got the Patriots right but missed the 49ers, making the ranks a very average 6-4 in the playoffs. My 4 month old son also went 1-1 in the conference championships, so he is 6-4, and my dog went 0-2, so he is also 6-4. This week, my son picked the Giants and my dog picked the Patriots. The ranks pick...

#1 Patriots over #4 Giants

Not much of a surprise right?

Here are the full ranks:

I hate this Super Bowl

I hate the pending Super Bowl for three primary reasons. 1) The Patriots. 2) The Giants. 3) The Patriots playing the Giants. Oh? Expound? Surely.

1) As a Colts fan, the Patriots have been the biggest nemesis for the past decade or more. They are from Boston and were the first step in unleashing Boston sports arrogance to the masses. I mean, people used to LIKE Boston. Cheers! Now? Screw Boston. Screw the Patriots. Screw Tom Brady. Screw Bill Belichick. Screw their ruthless efficiency. I do not care for the New England Patriots.

2) Excuse me for saying it, but I am sick of the underdog. The underdog has lost it's luster, because in the NFL, the underdog wins a LOT. Look at the last 4 years. Three different times, a team that played Wild Card weekend made the Super Bowl, and twice, that team won. If the underdog can reach the Big Game 40% of the time, they aren't really an underdog, are they? And if they win that Super Bowl 2/3 times they make it, they aren't a freaking underdog! So I'm sorry, New York. You had a crappy season and got lucky in the end. That doesn't mean I can root for you.
Also, what about my being a Colts/Peyton Manning fan compels me to vote for Eli Manning? Just because Eli is Peyton's brother doesn't make him any less of a whiny twit who begged his way out of San Diego. What kind of douche wants to get out of San Diego?! You made Philip Rivers look good! So no, Eli, you and your Giants... no.

3) The networks really like to sell the Boston-New York rivalry when they get a chance, no matter the sport. It's compelling television, to be sure... if you are from Boston or New York. I'm sick of hearing about these teams. I feel ill that one of these two teams will be heralded as the best team in football all next season. I hate that the ticker tape parades and everything will last so much longer next year than they should, or at least, they will be covered in the media for much longer than they should be. I hate that this is a rematch, which is the most boring plot of any sporting event in the land. Just ask LSU and Alabama.

I hate this Super Bowl. But on the other hand, it's almost impossible for next year's game to be any worse than this. Bring on the bean dip!

Picking this weekend's games

Without further ado, let's pick some NFL playoff games, eh?


New Orleans at San Francisco: I am torn. This will likely be the best (only?) game of the weekend. Every time I have watched the Saints, they have destroyed their opponents. The last memory I have of the 49ers was a season or two ago, and they simply weren't good. Still, I know the 49ers are all defense, and the Saints struggled on the road. Against all my inner judgement.... Prediction:
 

Denver at New England: Let's see, New England destroyed Denver in Colorado once this season. Tom Brady is an excellent reader of defenses (the thing that Denver relies on). The only reason anyone thinks this game is a toss up is because they want to talk about Tim Tebow..... Prediction:

Houston at Baltimore: The Texans were fortunate to draw the Bengals in round one, no doubt, but they are on a third string QB facing one of the top defenses in the league. Also, I picked the Ravens to the Super Bowl.
Prediction:

New York Giants at Green Bay: The Giants have a history of defeating elite teams when they really shouldn't! The Giants have a history of beating the Packers in the postseason! Prediction....

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 17

I think I need to kick off this post by saying I can't believe we've been doing this for 7 years now! We started this site (well, the old site) on January 5, 2005. Here we are, 3,505 posts later! (mostly by Ryan)

The NFL season has reached the playoffs, and the regular season power ranks are complete, but fear not, just like in previous seasons, the ranks will continue through the playoffs.

One downside to the power rank formula is that it has no way of accounting for teams that play poorly in Week 17 because their playoff spot is locked in. This happened to the Packers this week. Even though they won the game and scored a ton of points, the Lions offense made the Packers bad defense statistically worse and despite finishing 15-1, it cost them the #1 spot in the ranks going into the playoffs. Replacing them is none other than the Patriots, the #1 seed of the AFC. The remaining top 5 teams remained the same (49ers #3, Saints #4, Ravens #5).

In the bottom 5, the Buccaneers managed to swap places with the Rams despite the fact that they got destroyed by Atlanta this week. The rest remained the same (Vikings #28, Redskins #29, Colts #30)

The biggest gainers this week were the Bears, who got a win too little too late and jumped 6 spots to #16, while the biggest losers were the Seahawks, who dropped 6 spots to #15 after losing to the Cardinals and finishing with a 7-9 record. Unlike last year, when that was good enough to make the playoffs, this year it put them 6 games out of first place in their division.

So, now that we are into the playoffs, let's have the power ranks make some predictions! First, let's mention the teams with byes then look at the matchups:
Byes: #1 Patriots, #2 Packers, #3 49ers, #5 Ravens - Ranks pretty much aligned with real life standings here. The Saints were #4 but unfortunately for them were the 3rd best team in the NFC

#11 Texans over #12 Bengals - The difference between these 2 teams is razor thin in the ranks, but the Texans' better overall record and stronger defense gives them the edge

#8 Steelers over #26 Broncos - Wow. This year's Broncos team could be the worst playoff team of all time. They somehow backed into a playoff spot in Week 17 AND finished 8-8. They are currently the lowest ranked AFC West team. A probable first round loss to the Steelers could actually drop them into the bottom 5 next week.

#4 Saints over #6 Lions - This is the highest rated first round matchup, but the edge goes to the Saints due to a better record and recent success. Both of these teams are similar in that they have high powered offenses and weak defenses.

#7 Falcons over #10 Giants - This is another close matchup but the Falcons have the edge for being just a little better than the Giants in every category.

Just like in previous years, I decided to challenge my formula against my dog taking interest in 1 of the 2 mini-helmets. Here are my 3 year-old Golden Retriever's picks. (He picked the whole playoffs, but I'll let him re-pick each round):
Texans over Bengals
Steelers over Broncos
Saints over Lions
Giants over Falcons

Ravens over Texans
Patriots over Steelers
Packers over Giants
49ers over Saints

Ravens over Patriots
49ers over Packers

Ravens over 49ers in Har-Bowl II. (He loves the Ravens, he also picked them in 2008)

Not to be outdone, I also let my 3 month-old son make playoff picks, by putting the 2 helmets in front of him while sitting in his Bumbo seat and having his pick be the one he touches first. Here are his picks:
Texans over Bengals
Broncos over Steelers
Lions over Saints
Giants over Falcons

Ravens over Texans
Broncos over Patriots
Packers over Lions
49ers over Giants

Broncos over Ravens
49ers over Packers

49ers over Broncos - He knows his parents favorite teams apparently. He picked mine over my wife's.

Full Ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 15

15 weeks down, and 2 weeks to go. This week so some top teams tumble, and it caused a shakeup in our top 5. The Packers finally got their first loss, but they remained as the #1 team (as they should have) but the #2 Texans and #3 Ravens both lost, dropping them to #4 and #5, while the Patriots and Saints moved up to #2 and #3. The #7 49ers Monday night win over the #6 Steelers moved the Niners up to #6 while the Steelers dropped back to #8. Thanks to losses by the Texans, Ravens, and Steelers, the Patriots are now in the driver seat for home field throughout the playoffs (great....)

The Colts got their first win of the year, but remained dead last in the rankings. The Redskins win over the Giants not only probably ruined the Giants season but also moved them out of the bottom 5. Replacing them are the Bills, who just 10 weeks ago were a top 5 team. They have fallen very, very hard.

The biggest gainers this week were the Panthers, who moved up 6 spots for knocking off the Texans, and the Cardinals, who are 7-7 all of the sudden. This week's biggest losers were the Broncos, Bears, and Raiders who all dropped 5 spots. The Broncos are still leading the AFC West despite losing, but now have the Chargers lurking behind them. The Raiders blew a golden opportunity to move up in the standings. The Bears are just done. It doesn't really matter if Cutler or Forte come back at this point.

Playoff Projections:
AFC
1st Round Byes: #2 Patriots, #4 Texans
#11 Jets @ #5 Ravens
#8 Steelers @#13 Chargers
Top 5 Out: #14 Bengals, #16 Broncos, #17 Titans, #19 Dolphins, #23 Chiefs

NFC
1st Round Byes: #1 Packers, #3 Saints
#9 Lions @ #6 49ers
#7 Falcons @ #12 Cowboys
Top 5 Out: #10 Seahawks, #15 Cardinals, #18 Panthers, #20 Bears, #21 Giants

Full Ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 13

It seems like the NFL season just started in some ways, but we are actually already through week 13. The lurking Patriots aren't lurking so much anymore. They jumped 2 spots up to #3 for their scarily close win over the Colts (they got a "recent success" bump, winning their 4th in a row). The Packers remained at #1 *yawn*. The TJ Yates led Texans remained as #2 after surprisingly beating the 7-4 Falcons. The 49ers clinched the NFC West, but dropped to #4 as the Patriots leapfrogged them. The Ravens fell to #5 based on the Patriots move despite winning.

In the bottom 5, the Chiefs and Chargers moved out of the bottom 5 and right back into the awful AFC West division race. Replacing them are the Vikings and Redskins, who seem long overdue for being in the bottom 5. The Buccaneers, Rams, and Colts remained in the bottom 5, taking the last 3 spots. Speaking of the Colts, are we actually going to have a 16-0 and 0-16 team in the same season?

The biggest gainers this week are the Panthers, who jumped 7 spots and seem to be the "bad team that rallied at the end and will get a lot of hype next year" team from 2011. The Chargers jumped 6 spots for their blowout win over Jacksonville, while the Chiefs and Titans also jumped 5 spots. The biggest losers were the Bengals, who are getting a tough schedule reality check finally and throwing the AFC Wild Card race wide open. The Lions also dropped 5 spots, but stayed alive in the NFC playoff race as seemingly every single 7-4 team in the NFL lost this week. Actually I just did, in fact, they all did (6 for 6).

Playoff Projections:
AFC
1st Round Byes: #2 Texans, #3 Patriots
#10 Titans @ #5 Ravens
#7 Steelers @ #11 Broncos
Top 5 Out: #12 Jets, #13 Raiders, #17 Dolphins, #18 Bengals, #21 Browns

NFC
1st Round Byes: #1 Packers, #4 49ers
#14 Lions @ #6 Saints
#8 Bears @ #9 Cowboys
Top 5 Out: #15 Falcons, #16 Seahawks, #19 Cardinals, #20 Panthers, #22 Giants

Full Ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Divisional Playoffs

So last week was a pretty rough week for the power rankings making predictions. Also, the Patriots' loss after dominating the NFL for the previous 9 weeks or so really screwed things up. I'm hoping that somebody could actually mathematically unseat them with a win this week so we at least have the #1 ranked team in the Super Bowl. The rankings only predicted 1 game right in the divisional playoffs after going 3/4 in the wild card round. The only one it got right was the Bears, the obvious pick. My dog outpicked me, picking the Bears and Packers but missing the Ravens and Patriots.

With each of the previously top 3 ranked teams losing last week, we were in for a shakeup this week. The Patriots are barely holding on to the #1 spot still, despite being out of the playoffs. The team who beat them, the Jets, moved up to #4. The Steelers moved up to #3 with their win, while the Ravens fell 3 spots to #5. The Packers moved up 3 spots to #2, while Falcons fell 3 spots to #6. The Bears, who are still kind of on the outside looking in, only moved up 2 spots to #7 by beating Seattle. The Seahawks stayed at #22. All of the movement this week involved the playoff teams, with the exception of San Diego and Tampa, who dropped a spot because of the Bears' win. Usually a strength of schedule change causes some other eliminated teams to flip around. Not this week.

So without further ado, here are the power ranks (4-4) and my dog's (5-3) picks for this week:
Power Ranks:
#2 Packers over #7 Bears
#3 Steelers over #4 Jets

Jake the Golden Retriever:
Packers over Bears
Jets over Steelers

A Jets and Bears win would be devastating for the power ranks. They would not only be 4-6 at picking playoff winners, but the Patriots would probably be #1 heading into the Super Bowl. Wins by the Packers and Steelers will probably be enough to jump New England.

Full Ranks - All teams from #10 down stayed even so I'm not going to type the change this week for them:
1. Patriots - 78.76 - Even
2. Packers - 78.01 - +3
3. Steelers - 74.47 - +1
4. Jets - 71.44 - +2
5. Ravens - 70.92 - -3
6. Falcons - 69.69 - -3
7. Bears - 66.17 - +2
8. Buccaneers - 64.44 - -1
9. Chargers - 61.31 - -1
10. Lions - 58.75
11. Colts - 58.29
12. Giants - 54.91
13. Chiefs - 54.33
14. Eagles - 53.18
15. Saints - 52.48
16. Raiders - 51.69
17. Cowboys - 45.06
18. 49ers - 42.63
19. Rams - 42.01
20. Titans - 40.15
21. Texans - 39.66
22. Seahawks - 38.76
23. Dolphins - 37.36
24. Bengals - 36.32
25. Jaguars - 35.93
26. Redskins - 35.61
27. Vikings - 33.69
28. Cardinals - 33.09
29. Browns - 32.60
30. Bills - 32.27
31. Broncos - 27.39
32. Panthers - 24.62

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Wild Card Playoffs

Just like in previous years, the power ranks live on in the playoffs. Obviously, since only 8 out of the 32 NFL teams played last week, almost everyone stayed ranked exactly where they were. The Patriots are still #1, but the Ravens dominant win over Kansas City helped them jump over Atlanta for the #2 spot. The Steelers, Packers, and Jets remain at #4, #5, and #6. The other 2 playoff teams (that happen to be playing each other) are the Bears, who are #9 behind 2 non-playoff teams, and the Seahawks, who moved out of the bottom 5 and up to #22 after getting one of the most shocking playoff wins ever.

Last week's playoff losers all dropped some spots. the Colts fell to #11, Chiefs to #13, Eagles to #14, and Saints #15. All of those teams dropping moves the Lions, yes the Lions, who finished the season as one of the hottest teams into the top 10.

Last week, the power ranks nailed 3 out of the 4 games. It obviously missed the Seahawks beating the Saints, but got the Ravens, Packers, and Jets correct. That might sound impressive, but my dog also went 3/4 last week as well. He only missed the Eagles over the Packers.

So without further ado, here are the power rank predictions for this week:
#3 Falcons over #5 Packers
#9 Bears over #22 Seahawks
#1 Patriots over #6 Jets
#2 Ravens over #4 Steelers

Since the Eagles loss screwed up the divisional playoff pairings for my dog, I also let him make picks this week. Here they are:
Packers over Falcons
Bears over Seahawks
Patriots over Jets
Ravens over Steelers

Here are the full ranks:
1. Patriots - 85.47 - Even
2. Ravens - 77.39 - +1
3. Falcons - 76.82 - -1
4. Steelers - 74.00 - Even
5. Packers - 70.49 - Even
6. Jets - 69.53 - Even
7. Buccaneers - 64.35 - Even
8. Chargers - 61.03 - +1
9. Bears - 60.11 - +2
10. Lions - 58.85 - +4
11. Colts - 58.31 - -3
12. Giants - 55.22 - +3
13. Chiefs - 54.37 - -1
14. Eagles - 53.50 - -4
15. Saints - 53.05 - -2
16. Raiders - 54.37 - Even
17. Cowboys - 45.36 - Even
18. 49ers - 42.76 - Even
19. Rams - 42.15 - Even
20. Titans - 40.14 - Even
21. Texans - 40.00 - Even
22. Seahawks - 39.20 - +6
23. Dolphins - 37.40 - -1
24. Bengals - 36.41 - -1
25. Jaguars - 35.60 - Even
26. Redskins - 35.58 - -2
27. Vikings - 33.45 - -1
28. Cardinals - 33.24 - -1
29. Browns - 32.68 - Even
30. Bills - 31.98 - Even
31. Broncos - 28.07 - Even
32. Panthers - 24.84 - Even

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 17

The NFL regular season is all wrapped up and the final regular season power rankings are in, but just like in previous years, they will continue to be updated throughout the playoffs.

The Patriots, who could have rested some starters in their final week, decided instead to kill Miami to further tighten their death grip on the #1 spot. The Falcons, who wrapped up home field in the NFC, remain at #2. Somehow, the Ravens' narrow win over Cincinnati was more impressive than the Steelers destroying Cleveland, and the Ravens jumped them for the #3 spot. The Packers moved up to the #5 spot for getting into the playoffs by beating the Bears (who fell to #11).

On the bottom side, Carolina and Denver stayed in their usual spots on the bottom, while Buffalo moved down to #30 for losing to the Jets. The Browns completely tanked at the end of the year, costing Eric Mangini his job and sending the Browns plummeting to #29. And yes, even though they won this week and moved up 2 spots, your NFC West Champion Seattle Seahawks are heading into a home playoff game ranked in the bottom 5 at #28. How great (and accurate) is that?

We had a few big swings this week. The biggest gainers were the 49ers, who stomped the Cardinals for the 2nd time this year and moved up 9 spots to finish at their season high #18. The Texans jumped 8 spots for finally getting a win, and the Jets moved up 7 as they got a nice win for their confidence over Buffalo. The biggest losers were the above mentioned Browns, followed by the above mentioned Bears, and the Jaguars, who did everything in their power to lose the AFC South over the past few weeks.

The power ranks could be a useful tool for picking playoff winners, so let's see what the rankings picked this week:
#5 Packers over #10 Eagles
#13 Saints over #28 Seahawks
#3 Ravens over #12 Chiefs
#6 Jets over #8 Colts

That's right. The rankings are predicting that all 4 road teams will win this week, though the Jets/Colts and Packers/Eagles are pretty close so the lower ranked team could get a home field advantage bump.

Before getting to the full ranks, you are probably wondering why I have a picture of a dog wearing a Broncos bandanna as my picture this week. Since I am using a scientific formula to rank the football teams all season, and using it to pick the winners this week, I decided to also make some low tech picks. I have some mini plastic helmets so I let my 2 year-old male Golden Retriever, Jake, pick the winner by putting the 2 helmets on the floor and seeing which one he takes the most interest in. Kind of like Paul the World Cup octopus minus the suckers. Here were his playoff picks. I'm surprised he turned his back on his pick from 2 years ago, the Ravens:

Jake's picks:
Eagles over Packers
Seahawks over Saints
Jets over Colts
Ravens over Chiefs

Eagles over Bears
Falcons over Seahawks
Patriots over Jets
Steelers over Ravens

Eagles over Falcons
Steelers over Patriots

Steelers over Eagles

Yep, I'm surprised he picked Michael Vick to go so far too. Guess there are no hard feelings from the dog community.

Here are the full ranks:
1. Patriots - 85.03 - Even
2. Falcons - 76.99 - Even
3. Ravens - 74.53 - +1
4. Steelers - 73.88 - -1
5. Packers - 65.00 - +4
6. Jets - 64.77 - +1
7. Buccaneers - 64.52 - +4
8. Colts - 64.11 - +2
9. Chargers - 60.87 - +3
10. Eagles - 60.28 - -4
11. Bears - 59.96 - -6
12. Chiefs - 59.25 - -5
13. Saints - 59.05 - -5
14. Lions - 58.38 - Even
15. Giants - 55.70 - Even
16. Raiders - 51.53 - Even
17. Cowboys - 45.88 - +1
18. 49ers - 42.61 - +9
19. Rams - 41.35 - -2
20. Titans - 40.67 - Even
21. Texans - 40.50 - +8
22. Dolphins - 36.94 - +2
23. Bengals - 36.63 - +2
24. Redskins - 36.41 - -1
25. Jaguars - 35.45 - -6
26. Vikings - 33.34 - -4
27. Cardinals - 33.08 - -1
28. Seahawks - 32.99 - +2
29. Browns - 32.26 - -8
30. Bills - 31.86 - -2
31. Broncos - 28.21 - Even
32. Panthers - 24.69 - Even

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 16

After 6 consecutive weeks on top of the power ranks, the mighty Falcons have fallen to #2 after losing to the Saints on Monday night. Fortunately for them, they are still in the driver seat to clinch home field advantage in the NFC with a win over Carolina this Sunday. The Patriots have replaced the Falcons as #1, and have clinched home field in the AFC. It will be interesting to see how many starters they bench this week and how it could affect their rank heading into the playoffs with a loss. The Steelers remained #3 after dominating the now #32 Panthers on Thursday. The Eagles loss on Tuesday night to the Vikings knocked them back to #6. Moving up to replace them were the Ravens and the Bears, who clinched a 1st round bye thanks to that Eagles loss.

We had some more movement on the bottom side. The Cardinals got a dramatic win over the Cowboys on Christmas to move them up to #26, and the Bengals knocked the Chargers out of the playoffs to move up to #25. The Broncos also won, but only moved up 1 spot to #31, putting the Panthers rightfully back in last. The Seahawks moved even further down this week to #30, and the best part is, with a win this weekend, they are NFC West Champs and get a home playoff game. The Texans are brand new to the bottom 5. They have played horribly on defense and have combined them with losing a few close games over the past few weeks.

The biggest gainers this week were the Lions, who have won 3 in a row and are killing a potentially nice draft pick. They moved up 6 spots to jump all the way to #14. Can they make it 4 in a row to end the season? The biggest losers were the Lions' victims, the Dolphins, who fell 7 spots below a group of bunched up under .500 teams to fall to #24.

The playoffs are pretty much set, so a playoff projection doesn't make much sense, but here it is. Some of these scenarios are impossible so this more reflects who is playing best right now.
NFC
First Round Byes: #2 Falcons, #5 Bears
#9 Packers @ #6 Eagles
#8 Saints @ #17 Rams
Top 5 Out: #11 Buccaneers, #14 Lions, #15 Giants, #18 Cowboys, #22 Vikings

AFC
First Round Byes: #1 Patriots, #3 Steelers
#12 Chargers @ #7 Chiefs
#4 Ravens @ #10 Colts
Top 5 Out: #13 Jets, #16 Raiders, #19 Jaguars, #20 Titans, #21 Browns

Full ranks:
1. Patriots - 83.20 - +1
2. Falcons - 76.89 - -1
3. Steelers - 71.92 - Even
4. Ravens - 69.85 - +1
5. Bears - 67.47 - +1
6. Eagles - 66.87 - -2
7. Chiefs - 66.70 - +1
8. Saints - 66.24 - -1
9. Packers - 64.45 - +3
10. Colts - 58.43 - +3
11. Buccaneers - 57.01 - +3
12. Chargers - 54.49 - -1
13. Jets - 54.18 - -3
14. Lions - 53.59 - +6
15. Giants - 54.42 - -6
16. Raiders - 50.42 - -1
17. Rams - 47.50 - +2
18. Cowboys - 43.98 - Even
19. Jaguars - 42.50 - +3
20. Titans - 41.32 - +1
21. Browns - 40.41 - -5
22. Vikings - 39.90 - +4
23. Redskins - 39.32 - +4
24. Dolphins - 39.19 - -7
25. Bengals - 37.65 - +4
26. Cardinals - 36.30 - +4
27. 49ers - 33.92 - -4
28. Bills - 33.65 - -3
29. Texans - 32.65 - -5
30. Seahawks - 30.30 - -2
31. Broncos - 27.98 - +1
32. Panthers - 25.44 - -1

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 13

Week 13 featured 3 pretty big showdowns with playoff implications on the line. The #1 ranked Falcons disposed of the Buccaneers, causing them to possibly slip out of the NFC playoff race. The Steelers beat the Ravens to take back control of the AFC North. And, last but not least, in a showdown between 2 9-2 teams on Monday night, the Patriots destroyed the Jets to take over 1st place in the AFC East.

These results, of course, had an impact to the top of the power ranks. The Falcons remained at #1, the Steelers jumped up 2 spots to #3, and the Patriots moved up 1 spot to #2. The Jets, who came into this week ranked #2, fell 5 spots back to #7. The Saints stayed put at #4 for their narrow win over Cincy, and oddly, the Packers leapfrogged the Bears (who have been stuck outside the top 5 most of the season despite being 9-3) into the #5 spot.

As usual, the bottom 5 all lost this week, and did not change position. The only thing to note at the bottom is that the Cardinals are so bad that they are at a very strong risk of falling behind 1-11 Carolina.

The biggest gainers this week were the Cowboys and Seahawks, who each jumped 6 spots. The Cowboys beat the Colts in Indy, which would have been more impressive if they weren't facing the 1999-2009 Colts at this point. The Seahawks got to ravage the Panthers, and stay tied in first in the NFC West. The biggest losers were the Colts, who all of the sudden are in an absolute tailspin, but still look like the favorites to win the AFC South, and the 49ers, who got knocked 2 games back of the horrible NFC West playoff race.

Playoff Projection
NFC
First Round Byes: #1 Falcons, #5 Packers
#6 Bears @ #8 Eagles
#4 Saints @ #16 Rams
Top 5 Out: #10 Giants, #13 Buccaneers, #19 Cowboys, #20 Seahawks, #24 Vikings

AFC
First Round Byes: #2 Patriots, #3 Steelers
#11 Ravens @ #9 Chiefs
#7 Jets @ #17 Jaguars
Top 5 Out: #12 Chargers, #14 Raiders, #15 Browns, #18 Dolphins, #21 Colts

Here are the full ranks
1. Falcons - 81.70 - Even
2. Patriots - 79.87 - +1
3. Steelers - 72.76 - +2
4. Saints - 72.07 - Even
5. Packers - 71.57 - +2
6. Bears - 71.14 - Even
7. Jets - 69.26 - -5
8. Eagles - 68.98 - Even
9. Chiefs - 66.48 - +2
10. Giants - 59.92 - +3
11. Ravens - 59.10 - -1
12. Chargers - 57.36 - -3
13. Buccaneers - 55.90 - -1
14. Raiders - 50.47 - +3
15. Browns - 49.92 - +1
16. Rams - 49.42 - +3
17. Jaguars - 49.14 - +1
18. Dolphins - 46.94 - -4
19. Cowboys - 46.93 - +6
20. Seahawks - 44.31 - +6
21. Colts - 44.15 - -6
22. Texans - 42.14 - -1
23. Titans - 40.41 - -1
24. Vikings - 40.13 - Even
25. Redskins - 38.26 - -2
26. 49ers - 36.39 - -6
27. Bills - 31.81 - Even
28. Broncos - 30.74 - Even
29. Lions - 30.60 - Even
30. Bengals - 25.37 - Even
31. Cardinals - 17.39 - Even
32. Panthers - 17.22 - Even

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 8

So I don't know what my problem is this year with the power ranks. I usually do them on Tuesday night but then something comes up and I don't get around to posting them until Saturday or Sunday. I'll try better next week, I guess.

This week, we have a new #1 team, and surprisingly, its a team that not many people have been talking about this year despite having the best record in the NFL. I think a lot of people feel that their "dynasty" is over because it has been 3 years since they made it to and 6 years since they have won the Super Bowl, but they seem to still be one of the best teams in the NFL. That's right, I'm talking about the Patriots. They are back in familiar territory with the top spot. The Jets, who lost an ugly 9-0 game to the Packers last week, fell only 1 spot to #2. The Colts took over the #3 spot for taking control of the AFC South, while the Steelers fell out of the top 5 to #6 after losing to the Saints. Despite losing, the Titans stayed put at #4 and the Falcons are still #5.

On the bottom side, the 49ers won the clash of the titans from last week with Denver to climb out of the bottom 5 for the first time all season, while the Broncos stayed where they were at #29. The 49ers moving up pushed the Panthers down to #31 and the Cowboys down to #30. The Cardinals, who are actually a respectable 3-4, are getting murdered by all of the other factors that roll into these ranks (like offense, defense, turnovers, recent success, etc) and are now in the bottom 5 at #28. That's exactly what these ranks are for.

This week's big gainers had 3 teams jumping 6 spots. The 49ers moved up 6 for beating Denver in London. The Lions moved up 6 for beating the Redskins, and the red-hot Oakland Raiders moved up 6 spots for stomping on Seattle. The Raiders have by far their highest ranking since I started doing these ranks years ago, at #11. The biggest loser was Seattle, who fell 8 spots for getting crushed by the Raiders, followed by Washington, as listed mentioned above.

Playoff Projections:
NFC
First Round Byes: #5 Falcons, #7 Giants
#13 Eagles @ #12 Packers
#10 Buccaneers @ #17 Rams
Top 5 Out: #14 Saints, #15 Redskins, #18 Seahawks, #20 Bears, #21 Lions

AFC
First Round Byes: #1 Patriots, #3 Colts
#4 Titans @ #6 Steelers
#2 Jets @ #9 Chiefs
Top 5 Out: #8 Ravens, #11 Raiders, #16 Texans, #19 Dolphins, #22 Jaguars

Here are the full ranks:
1. Patriots - 78.13 - +1
2. Jets - 71.93 - -1
3. Colts - 70.83 - +3
4. Titans - 69.98 - Even
5. Falcons - 68.59 - Even
6. Steelers - 67.66 - -3
7. Giants - 65.09 - Even
8. Ravens - 63.61 - Even
9. Chiefs - 62.91 - +2
10. Buccaneers - 62.53 - +4
11. Raiders - 59.51 - +6
12. Packers - 58.63 - +3
13. Eagles - 56.60 - -1
14. Saints - 54.05 - +2
15. Redskins - 53.47 - -6
16. Texans - 51.48 - -3
17. Rams - 49.62 - +2
18. Seahawks - 49.53 - -8
19. Dolphins - 49.36 - +3
20. Bears - 46.10 - -2
21. Lions - 43.65 - +6
22. Jaguars - 41.73 - +2
23. Browns - 41.59 - -3
24. Chargers - 40.07 - +2
25. 49ers - 34.12 - +6
26. Bengals - 33.80 - -5
27. Vikings - 32.27 - -4
28. Cardinals - 31.53 - -3
29. Broncos - 25.70 - Even
30. Cowboys - 24.77 - -2
31. Panthers - 24.75 - -1
32. Bills - 17.17 - Even

The best part of last night's game

The post game press conference last night after the incredible Colts victory was one of my favorite moments in weeks. Bill Belichick was prodded and harassed over and over about his decision to go for the first down on 4th down late in the 4th quarter. Ultimately, the decision backfired, and the Patriots came up short. No matter how the question was phrased, Belichick kept saying that he went for the first down because he thought they could get that yard, and they would then have the opportunity to run out the clock. No matter what the question, "We thought we could get that yard," Belichick would say. Then, at the very end of the press conference, one question stuck out. Before, Belichick had been annoyed and gruff, but this question really ticked him off:
"You know it was 4th and 2, right?"
Hilarious.

I would hate the Patriots less if they still wore this

I don't know why.

Oh no! Snow!

Before we get into the day's football, let's make one thing clear: Just because Arizona is in, well, Arizona, doesn't mean that they are going to be completely unaccustomed to winter climate. Larry Fitzgerald is from Minnesota and played at Pitt. Kurt Warner spent formative years in Iowa. Has Matt Cassel ever led a team through a snow storm? (No). Let's make this one thing clear then. The Patriots are going to beat the Cardinals today because tehy are a much better team. No excuses Cardinals.

NFL Power Ranks: Week 3

Another wild week in the NFL is in the books, and the biggest ranking swings this week in both a positive and negative direction centered around one game: the Dolphins shocking rout of the Patriots in New England. The Patties dropped 12 spots, from #4 all the way to #16, while the Dolphins rose 9 spots, from #27 to #18. Are the Dolphins really the 18th best team in the NFL? Probably not, but the Patriots could be the 16th best team especially since Randy Moss is about to go on a long vacation and the defense is finally starting to show their bitterness over losing the Super Bowl....Super Bowl XX to the Bears, that is.

The NFC East has been extremely impressive so far this season, as many had predicted. The 4 teams are all in the top 8 spots and the division is 8-0 in games against non-division opponents. The Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles have all shown they have top offenses while the Redskins, Eagles, and Giants have top defenses. The Redskins also lead the NFL in turnover ratio.

The defending Super Bowl champ Giants still hold a commanding lead on the #1 spot despite a narrow win over the Bengals this week, while the surprising Bills are #2, the defensive beast Titans are #3, and the Cowboys and Eagles are #4 and #5. Seattle and Minnesota crawled out of the bottom 5 this week by getting their first wins. Replacing them are absolutely miserable Cleveland and Houston (but they had a hurricane and are at least only 0-2). Here are the ranks:

1. Giants - 85.45 - Even
2. Bills - 76.61 - +3
3. Titans - 75.59 - +3
4. Cowboys - 75.57 - +7
5. Eagles - 74.75 - +5
6. Broncos - 73.76 - +3
7. Ravens - 68.94 - +5
8. Redskins - 68.60 - +5
9. Cardinals - 67.76 - -7
10. Falcons - 65.73 - +7
11. Panthers - 59.10 - -8
12. Packers - 58.56 - -5
13. Buccaneers - 58.44 - +2
14. Steelers - 56.16 - -6
15. 49ers - 52.47 - +4
16. Patriots - 50.18 - -12
17. Bears - 48.06 - -3
18. Dolphins - 44.96 - +9
19. Chargers - 44.68 - +5
20. Saints - 42.58 - -2
21. Jaguars - 41.29 - +5
22. Vikings - 40.80 - +6
23. Raiders - 39.52 - -3
24. Jets - 37.24 - -8
25. Seahawks - 34.86 - +6
26. Colts - 30.08 - -5
27. Bengals - 26.03 - -4
28. Browns - 22.99 - -6
29. Texans - 20.88 - -4
30. Chiefs - 16.31 - -1
31. Lions - 13.36 - -1
32. Rams - 12.90 - Even

Weather: The anti homefield

Oh good. It's New York and Boston at the forefront of sports in America. That never happens. Ugh.

I think the interesting thing about the game was the weather. Yes, I am a meteorologist, why d you ask?
Anyways, the purported home field advantage put forth by the inclement weather in Foxboro and Green Bay seemed to work against both teams. New England's aerial assault was severely limited due to the gusty winds at the stadium today. Had the Chargers been playing Ladanian Tomlinson, things may have swung in the Chargers favor. In fact, I would venture to say a healthy LT would have made the Chargers the favorites in that game, given the conditions, as a strong running game would have turned the tables.
In Green Bay, you have to wonder, seriously, if the bitterly cold weather didn't cause Brett Favre to tighten up just a bit, maybe make him less than his best. Nobody was moving quickly out there, and it came down to field position and mistakes. Favre made them, and Eli Manning did not.
The bad news about the Super Bowl, other than the fact that it's New York and New England and omigod they'll never shut up, is that it's being played in Phoenix. There will be no redeeming weather to interest me either. Well, at least the Colts won last year. In the rain.

Super Bowl XXXIX

Originally posted on "Is It Sports?" this was another co-written post. Steve is in red, Ryan in black.

Ryan: any predictions for the game?
Steve : well Patriots will win of course Steve : I'll say 34-16
Ryan: all right... i also predict Freddie Mitchell will get hit so hard the hit will appear in every NFL films intro from that point forward
Ryan: as for the game, the patriots dont win unless Vinatieri kicks the winner, so 23-20 pats
Steve : well I hope your first prediction is right
Ryan: it will be one of those hits where the helmet doesnt come off entirely, but starts too, the ball pops out, and freddie lands on his shoulder, with his feet over his head
Steve : that would be awesome
Ryan: then, the eagles, up 17-6 at the time, would be forced to rely on *gasp* Todd Pinkston for the rest of the game, since T.O.s leg will have been amputated below the knee and while freddys body is in jacksonville, his head's in Tallahassee
Steve : yeah and that's why a Vinatieri game winner doesn't seem convincing to me
Ryan: what do you mean?
Steve : that the game won't be that close
Ryan: well, theyve played Indy, who doesnt play defense, and pittsburgh, who has a rookie QB
Steve : I just think they have the confidence and the focus and Philly is just relieved that they didn't choke again
Ryan i think itll be a classic
Steve : it's been alternating lately so I say no
Ryan: well its been alternating whether or not the patriots have been involved
Ryan: this is like the wrestlemania superbowl for the nfl, the past few have been smackdowns and raws.... they are going to make this a classic (the nfl is fixed)
Steve : 38, 36, 34, 32, 30, and 28 were all interesting at least at the beginning of the 2nd half Steve : 37, 35, 33, 31, 29, 27 were all pretty much blowouts
Ryan : i dont remember that far back, man
Steve : trust me on that
Ryan i tend to

It’s probably for the best that Steve and I took a step back from baseball for a few days. He was waiting outside my door the other day wearing a Frank Thomas jersey and wielding a machete. So here’s a little Super Bowl preview, Is It Sports style.

Obviously, Steve has an incredible grasp on every aspect of sports history. Knows the ins and outs of all those little trends and I’m sure if you asked him the starting left tackle for the losing team in Super Bowl XXIV he would know it like that. Great bar trick. Gets him all the ladies.

The fact is though, trends and streaks aren’t all there is to sports. Wisconsin lost at home to Illinois, for example. If trends and streaks were what it was all about, I wouldn’t be here, writing for both of my readers.

That being said, I think Vinatieri will kick a game-winner in the waning seconds, as he has the past two times the Patriots reached the Super Bowl. I just think the Patriots are clutch, but not overwhelmingly better than the Eagles. All right, a little discussion of the two teams follows.

Patriots. I don’t know if anyone told you this yet, but the New England Patriots are pretty good, totally confusing anyone that lived in the early 90’s. I daresay they are a dynasty, and that Bill Belichek is a fabulous head coach. But I have a few reasons not to cheer for them, despite their talent.

One reason is this “Tom Brady is as good as Joe Montana” talk. Just because he can win the big one doesn’t erase the 9-7 season after he won his first Super Bowl, or that his defense is what won him 75% of the games he’s played in. The Rams destroyed every team they played, due to their ridiculous offense. The Pats D held them within striking distance. And against Carolina? Well, that was Carolina. Tom Brady isn’t as good as Joe Montana. (On a side note, doesn’t he look like a character from Celebrity Death Match brought to life? And who do I talk to to get that show back on the air?)

How about this quote, from Philly lineman Ike Reese, in the most recent issue of Sports Illustrated, “Mike Vrabel had my testicles in his hand, and he was squeezing them.” I don’t think I really need to say anything beyond that.

But, as much as I hate to admit it, every decade needs its dynasty, so until next year, I guess I won’t root against the Pats too hard.

Eagles. I do have a huge reason to hate the Eagles. Freddie Mitchell’s mouth. If you hate loudmouthed role players as much as I do, then this year is easy to pick a team to cheer for. While I like the Eagles for whupping the Vikings, I despise them for gloating about it. And I really wish Freddie Mitchell would realize he would be third receiver on at least 10 different teams.

But I’ve always liked that batch of late nineties Syracuse players. You know who I’m talking about, Donovan McNabb, Marvin Harrison, Rob Konrad. I really want to see McNabb pull this one out. (Well maybe not this one, but you know, one) He’s been too quality a guy to not have a ring. It’s like he’s this generations Dan Marino, but worse, because he has to mire in Philly.

So I guess in total, I have enough going for and against both teams that I’m entirely indifferent over who wins. (I say this now, but I know when the game starts, I’ll start cheering for someone). Like I said above, however, I’m picking the Pats, 23-20. -Ryan

Well I think I made my prediction and my reasons pretty clear in our conversation, and I think the Eagles just won't be able to keep up with the more experienced Patriots. McNabb is overrated, and I don't think he's good enough to take advantage of the Patriots shaky secondary. I really would have liked to see what the Eagles record would have been had they played in the AFC all season. There's no question they are a very good team, but I don't know if they are even close to as good as the Patriots, Steelers, or even Colts, especially with no (or banged up) T.O. Even though I'm not expecting it, I'm hoping the game is close to keep me interested, or I guess I'll even accept good commercials or more exposed nipples too (as long as they aren't Romeo Crennel's or something). I've been to Jacksonville 4 times, and I can't believe they're hosting the Super Bowl. It's easily one of the most boring cities in America and the weather there isn't as nice as Miami in the winter, and has unbearable deep south humidity in the summer. I've stayed at the hotel the Eagles are staying at all 4 times I went, and its a nice place (with nothing to do of course except golf on the TPC Sawgrass course, that features the world famous island hole, but they probably don't have time for it anyways) so that gives them a nice intangible edge...unless one of them gets attacked by one of the hundreds of alligators living freely on the hotel's property of course....

I couldn't agree more with what Ryan said about comparing Tom Brady to Joe Montana. The Niners had good defensive players in the 80s, and they were definitely no pushovers, but their success was based on their offensive system and stars. Unlike his successor Steve Young, who I'd like to congratulate on also becoming a first ballot Hall of Famer today, I never lost faith when the ball was in Montana's hands with a big game on the line. He personally won the 49ers many huge games during his time, even before they somehow drafted Jerry Rice in 1985 immediately after completing the first 15-1 season in NFL history, winning the Super Bowl, and making Dan Marino bitter for life. There's only 1 Joe Cool.

As for the Eagles, I LIKE Terrell Owens, but I'm really sick of Donovan McNabb and his mom. I'll never eat chunky soup as long as I live. The media loves to beat up on T.O, but this is a guy that loves football, has a lot of fun, truly wants to win, and stays out of trouble off the field. Like it or not, he can back up his talk, and I think he has a right to do what he does. I'm a 49ers fan, and the way the team is being managed right now, I don't blame him at all for wanting to leave. He's responsible for 2 of my all-time favorite Niners moments as well. His catch in the 1998 playoffs to finally beat the Packers is a moment I'll never forget, and when he ran and spiked that ball on that Cowboys star in 2000, you know all of the Niners fans across the country were going wild after the way the 90s went. To me he was like the spiteful James Bond at the end of some of the 70s movies. Where he has enough and stops being a tuxedo-wearing "good guy" and decides to take out the trash once and for all, where he easily could just arrest the bad guy. Those 2 plays put a dagger through the hearts of both Packers and Cowboys fans because they are re-run all the time, and I think that's nice payback for the way those teams made Niners fans feel throughout the decade. I really hope he's able to make a contribution in this game, because I know he's wanted this his entire life and he's willing to risk a career ending injury just to play in the Super Bowl. That's a role model in my book. Ask Rasheed Wallace if he'd do that. I don't think it will be this year, but I hope he gets that ring one day. Oh yeah, and the starting left tackle for the Super Bowl XXIV losing 1989 Denver Broncos (to my Niners) was Gerald Perry (but I had to look that up). - Steve

Championship Sunday

Originally posted on "Is It Sports" by Steve. This is just another big posted conversation, try your best to follow...At the very end, more proof of Ryan's conversion to a Colts fan exists...

After both going 3-1 last week, Ryan and I break down our NFC and AFC title game predictions.....

Ryan: so.. who wins tomorrow?
Steve: I'm going with Philly and New England
Steve: I think Philly breaks the curse and uses the weather to their advantage
Steve: Eagles 28, Falcons 20
Ryan: I dont think Atlanta has as many problems with the weather as other dome teams
Ryan: mostly because they arent a passing team
Steve: I think the snow will slow down their speedy runners
Steve: if they use Duckett a lot, I think they'll have a better chance
Ryan: yep
Ryan: but i agree... new england wins
Steve: so you think the Falcons are going to win?
Ryan: i think so... going back to the theory that the nfl is rigged
Steve: lol
Steve: I just don't think its Vick's time yet
Steve: and the media will have more fun with the will TO be healthy? stories
Ryan: i honestly think the story is better with philly losing
Steve: well I think they have potential instead of being the 90s Bills to be the 70s Rams
Steve: the Rams were pretty competitive every year but kep losing in the playoffs to Minnesota and Dallas
Steve: but finally in 1979 they beat the "default" other good team (like Atlanta, because everyone else sucked) which was Tampa Bay to go to the Super Bowl and become the doormat for the team of the decade
Ryan: i remember back to 98
Ryan: yada yada yada vikings this vikings that
Steve: well that's a good point too
Ryan: vikings lose
Steve: I see this Falcons team as less of a Cinderella though, more like a team on the brink
Steve: kind of like the 1995 Packers
Steve: they made waves by finally knocking off the Niners but couldn't get past Dallas, but then 1996 was their year
Steve: I'll erase this line...want me to just post this conversation when we're done?
Ryan: that would be easy
Steve: I'm covering all the points when that I want to hit in the conversation
Ryan: all right
Steve: I think in the New England game, this will be one of the first times that bad weather helps the road team, because they have a ton more experience
Steve: and I think the football Gods will work against a rookie QB making the Super Bowl
Ryan: i hate him and his hat
Steve: who?
Ryan: roethlisberger
Ryan: he is always wearing that hat
Steve: haha
Steve: wow the Rams lost 4 NFC title games in 5 years in the 70s before making it to Super Bowl XIV
Ryan: wow
Steve: They lost in 74, 75, 76, and 78 and in 73 and 77 lost in the divisonal playoffs
Ryan: sounds like the vikings
Steve: the year they finally made it in 1979 they were only 9-7
Steve: well I want to be social so let's get some scores down and I'll post it
Steve: like I said before Eagles 28, Falcons 20
Steve: Patriots 16, Steelers 12
Ryan: falcons 27 Eagles 26
Ryan: Patriots 21 Steelers 7
Steve: coolness
Steve: Have anything else to add before I post?
Ryan: we both went what, 3-1 last week?
Ryan: since it snowed and the pats won
Steve: yeah that's right
Steve: because you picked Minnesota
Ryan: haha
Ryan: knowing full well they would lose
Steve: and I forgot about weather and became a hype whore
Ryan: yep... i feel bad though... simmons laid into he colts too
Steve: why do you feel bad?
Ryan: the colts are good guys for the most part

So there you have it. I've got Patriots-Eagles and Ryan has Patriots-Falcons. Stay tuned for our Super Bowl predictions, which will probably be a lot more in depth and made more sober - Steve