The Victoria Times NCAA Football Simulation (Ryan's Version)

It's that time of year again. The time that I tell you the results of the annual football simulation we run through What If Sports, run in order to find a national champion, with all decisions based on how things play out on the field. This means a tournament with only conference champions, and seeding based on results, with no polls used at any point. For a more complete information on how the simulation works, click the "simulation" tag at the bottom of the page. Without further ado, here are the results!

Dixie: Champion: Alabama (2010 - Georgia)
Good Surprise - Mississippi
Bad Surprise - Clemson
Order of finish - Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Louisiana-Monroe, Auburn, Clemson, UAB
Note - Alabama actually won the conference easily, thanks to South Carolina going 0-3 out of conference.

Great Basin: Champion: Oregon (2010 - Boise State)
Good Surprise - Utah State
Bad Surprise - Nevada
Order of finish - Oregon, Boise State, Utah State, Utah, Washington, Washington State, Oregon State, Nevada, Idaho, UNLV
Note - This was the highest finish for Washington State by a substantial margin. Oregon won the conference for the first time.

Appalachian: Champion: Cincinnati (2010 - Louisville)
Good Surprise - Ohio
Bad Surprise - Pitt
Order of finish - Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Ohio, Marshall, Louisville, Virginia, Kentucky, Pittsburgh, Miami (OH)
Note - Except for last year, this conference always seems to come down to Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and West Virginia.

Great Lakes: Champion: Bowling Green (2010 - Michigan State)
Good Surprise - Bowling Green
Bad Surprise: The Big Ten
Order of Finish - Bowling Green, Toledo, Michigan State, Michigan, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Ohio State, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Akron
Note - Two strong Big Ten teams, Michigan State and Michigan were abysmal, meaning this was the first time a MAC team won the conference

New England: Champion: Penn State (2010 - Maryland)
Good Surprise - Buffalo
Bad Surprise - Rutgers
Order of finish - Penn State, Buffalo, Syracuse, Temple, Connecticut, Boston College, Rutgers, Navy, Maryland, Army
Note - Buffalo will be rewarded for their strong season with a non conference schedule including games against Wisconsin, North Carolina and Oklahoma. Also, Penn State... Awkward.

Florida: Champion: Southern Miss (2010 - Florida State)
Good Surprise - Florida International
Bar Surprise - Miami (FL)
Order of Finish - Southern Miss, Florida, Florida State, Florida International, South Florida, Miami (FL), Central Florida, Troy, Tulane, Florida Atlantic.
Note - No teams from Florida in the tournament this year, and the first C-USA team to make the tournament.

Gulf Coast: Champion: Texas (2010 - TCU)
Good Surprise - Texas
Bad Surprise - Louisiana-Lafayette
Order of Finish - Texas, LSU, Houston, Texas A&M, TCU, Louisiana Tech, SMU, North Texas, Rice, Louisiana-Lafayette
Note - What? I don't think the expected team has ever won this conference.

Midwest: Champion: Iowa (2010 - Iowa)
Good Surprise - Minnesota
Bad Surprise - Purdue
Order of Finish - Iowa, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Minnesota, Northern Illinois, Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Ball State
Note - Of all conferences, the Midwest was one of only two to have a repeat champion (Great Plains being the other). And Minnesota went 6-6, which is preposterous.

Tobacco Road: Champion: Wake Forest (2010 - Tennessee)
Good Surprise - Vanderbilt
Bad Surprise - East Carolina
Order of Finish - Wake Forest, North Carolina, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, North Carolina State, Duke, Middle Tennessee State, Western Kentucky, Memphis, East Carolina
Note - This is a weird conference. It has a bunch of otherwise strong middle of the pack teams, but no true powerhouse. Good for Wake Forest.

California: Champion: USC (2010 - Stanford)
Good Surprise - Arizona
Bad Surprise - Stanford
Order of Finish - USC, Arizona State, Arizona, Stanford, Fresno State, UCLA, San Jose State, California, San Diego State, Hawaii
Note - I am not the NCAA, so USC is eligible. And last years national champs, Stanford, were only 6-6.

Great Plains: Champion: Oklahoma State (2010 - Oklahoma State)
Good Surprise - Missouri
Bad Surprise - The real life Cotton Bowl
Order of Finish - Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Missouri, Tulsa, Arkansas, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State, Arkansas State
Note - Another top heavy conference, that should have been a greater dog fight and better in non conference.

Mountain West: Champion: Texas Tech (2010 - Baylor)
Good Surprise - Texas Tech
Bad Surprise - Wyoming
Order of Finish - Texas Tech, BYU, Baylor, Colorado, UTEP, Air Force, Wyoming, Colorado State, New Mexico State, New Mexico
Note - I guess I sort of thought Wyoming would be a top 4 team in this conference.

There were no winless or undefeated teams. The Gulf Coast conference was the top conference in terms of strength, which meant Texas was the overall number one seed. The new pods for next season will be California-Great Basin-Dixie-Mountain West
Great Plains-Midwest-Tobacco Road-New England
Gulf Coast-Appalachian-Great Lakes-Florida

Tobacco Road and Great Lakes swapped due to results in the tournament this year, otherwise all 12 Big 10 teams would have been in the same pod. Other than that, it's strangely geographically oriented, especially with all three western conferences in a pod.

All right, here are the results of the tournament. The Championship game, as with real life this year, would have been at the Orange Bowl.

FIRST ROUND
Peach Bowl - 9 Wake Forest 38 (OT) 8 Bowling Green 35 - Wake Forest was down 17 going into the 4th quarter, but came back to win a thriller.
Gator Bowl - 12 Texas Tech 31 5 Iowa 26 - Iowa has made the tournament 3 times, and is yet to win a game
Citrus/Capital One Bowl - 11 Oklahoma State 72 (5 OT), 6 Oregon 70 - Brandon Weeden threw for 7 TDs and 572 yards in this barn burner.
Liberty Bowl - 7 Southern Miss 46, 10 Penn State 40 - Brett Favre surely would have been in attendance. Southern Miss prevented what would have been a very awkward game between Penn State and USC, and were the only higher seed to win in the first round.

QUARTERFINALS
Orange Bowl - 1 Texas 27, 9 Wake Forest 17 - The Demon Deacon magic couldn't carry over to the quarters, and in their second game against a team wearing orange, they were manhandled.
Cotton Bowl - 4 Alabama 31, 12 Texas Tech 29 - This game was certainly a lot closer than it should have been, but Alabama couldn't slow down the spread.
Sun Bowl - 11 Oklahoma State 45, 3 Cincinnati 27 - Weeden went ahead and through for 4 more in this one, which went much more smoothly than the game against Oregon.
Fiesta Bowl - 2 USC 37, 7 Southern Miss 31 - Hey, not bad for the first Conference USA team in the tournament, winning a game and all.

SEMIFINALS
Rose Bowl - 4 Alabama 37, Texas 10 - As it turned out, Texas' only losses were to LSU and Alabama all season
Sugar Bowl - 11 Oklahoma State 34, 2 USC 31 - Weeden slowed down, only throwing 1 TD in the semifinal. Oklahoma State is the second team ('09 Florida) to reach the championship game after playing a first round game in the history of our sim.

CHAMPIONSHIP
Oklahoma State 49, Alabama 24 - In an offense vs defense struggle, the offense won. Brandon Weeden threw 6 more TDs, giving him 18 for the tournament. Oklahoma State, who felt they should have made the real national Championship Game ended up defeating the NCAA national Champion in our sim.

 There were a few quirks and peccadilloes with this simulation, like Clemson and Kansas State being dreadful, and a Iowa, Bowling Green and Texas winning their conferences, but in the end, the championship game was between two deserving teams that played everything out on the field, just like everyone wanted. Until next year, and congratulations, Oklahoma State!

Steve's 2011 College Football Sim

Happy New Year! Unlike 2 years ago, when I didn't manage to post the the results of my college football blowup sim until late February, or last year, where I posted on January 23, 13 days after the end of the actual season, I actually finished my college football simulation while bowls were still being played, on December 27. Believe it or not, I even finished my sim before Ryan! His post is coming soon. Here is a link to Ryan's results from last year. I'll take the liberty of letting you follow the link to his post where he links to the origin of the college football reorganization that we came up with and how our sim is structured. Here are some fun facts from my sim this year, then I'll get into the conference breakdowns:

- There seemed to be a lot more parity and crazy upsets this year.
- Only 3 of my conference champs went 9-0 in conference, while 7 were 8-1 and 2 were 7-2. Last year 7 went 9-0. Tiebreakers were needed in 3 conferences. Two were decided by the head to head winner and the other was decided by overall record (Midwest)
- Only 2 conferences saw the conference champ win by more than 1 game (Florida by 2 over Miami, Florida State, and UCF in Florida and Alabama by 3 over Georgia Tech and Georgia in Dixie)
- My strongest conference was the Gulf Coast, who went 65-55 overall.
- The worst conference was the Mountain West, who went 53-67.
- 3 of my 12 playoff teams from last year returned: Alabama, Boise State, and Michigan State
- Only 2 of the real-life 10 BCS teams made my tournament: Alabama and West Virginia, but 3 of them finished 2nd in their conference. Michigan was only 6-6 and Clemson was only 7-5 (but they started 6-0)
- 3 of last year's conference champs fell hard this year: Hawaii (2-10), Pittsburgh (4-8), and Air Force (4-8)
- There weren't any huge turnaround stories from conference champs this year. The closest were Houston and USC, who were only 6-6 last year. Syracuse was 8-4 (6-3) last year and this year that same overall record (with 1 more conference win) was enough for them to win New England
- 3 BCS schools finished dead last in their conference (Minnesota and Nebraska from the Big Ten and UCLA from the Pac-12)
- 4 of my conference champions are switching their real life conference in 2012 (Houston from C-USA to Big East, Boise State from Mountain West to Big East, West Virginia from Big East to Big 12, and Syracuse from Big East to ACC)
- The SEC had 3 teams represent them in the tournament (Alabama, Florida, Tennessee) and the ACC got shut out
- If you use next year's alignments, the SEC and Big 12 (Oklahoma, Texas Tech, West Virginia) would each have 3 teams, the Big East would still have 2 but totally different representatives (West Virginia and Syracuse changing to Houston and Boise State), the ACC would actually have a team (Syracuse), and the Mountain West/Conference USA planned conglomerate would be shut out
- I only had 2 12-0 teams overall: Florida and Alabama
- I did not have a single 0-12 team, but I had 2 1-11 teams: North Texas and UCLA. North Texas got their only win over Army in what was the first game of the 731 from my entire sim.

Here are the results, conference by conference by conference.

New England - Champion: Syracuse
This was a crazy conference this year. Syracuse opened the non-conference schedule by getting absolutely crushed by Texas A&M and UTEP and lost their first conference game to UConn, which made them 1-3. Meanwhile, defending champs Temple started 8-0 and were looking unstoppable. Temple lost 3 in a row to Boston College, Syracuse, and Maryland and all of the sudden Syracuse was in 1st place. Syracuse celebrated that by getting destroyed by Penn State. Five teams had a shot to win the conference going into the last week and Temple even got a nice win at Penn State to set themselves up, but Syracuse got the job done against Maryland to win the conference
Order of finish: Syracuse, Temple, UConn, Penn State, Boston College, Buffalo, Army, Maryland, Rutgers, Navy

Appalachian - Champion: West Virginia
The Mountaineers took this conference by going 8-1 and 10-2 overall, losing only to Cincinnati in the final conference game (they had already clinched at that point) and to Miami (FL) in non-conference play. They made short work of Virginia Tech in a showdown game with them, but Virginia Tech also had slips against Louisville and Purdue in non-conference play. Ohio had an impressive 8-4 record
Order of Finish: West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Ohio, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Marshall, Virginia, Kentucky, Miami (OH)

Great Lakes - Champion: Michigan State
Unlike last year when they went 12-0, the Spartans took their lumps in non-conference play, going 0-3 against North Carolina, Boise State, and Alabama. They turned around and ran the table in this very weak conference, where their only real competition was Toledo (who went 8-1, but got blow out by Michigan State). Ohio State was terrible. They only went 4-8 overall and lost to Toledo 54-6.
Order of Finish: Michigan State, Toledo, Bowling Green, Michigan, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Ohio State, Akron, Kent State

Tobacco Road - Champion: Tennessee
Vanderbilt was initially the story of this conference, starting off with a 9-0 record. As the season went on, it became apparent that a Week 11 showdown between Tennessee and Vanderbilt was looming, and both teams actually lost in Week 10 before playing. Tennessee beat Vandy, and went on to win the conference with a 8-1 (10-2) record. It should be noted how horrible Memphis could be at times. The ended up going 3-9 but they were shut out 4 times and also lost the biggest blowout of the season, a 75-3 beating from Tennessee
Order of Finish: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke, Western Kentucky, East Carolina, NC State, Memphis, Middle Tennessee

Midwest - Champion: Iowa
This is another conference where it became apparent early on that Iowa and Wisconsin would have a showdown with the winner likely winning the conference. The only difference was Iowa went 3-0 against a relatively tricky non-conference schedule while Wisconsin suffered blowout losses to Florida State and Oklahoma State. When they met in Week 11, Wisconsin picked up the easy win. However, in the final game of the season, Wisconsin got stunned by Notre Dame and Iowa won, putting them both at 8-1 conference record, and since Iowa was 11-1 and Wisconsin was 9-3, Iowa got to go to the tournament. Purdue had a promising start, shockingly winning that game at Virginia Tech that I warned about last year, but they only ended up finishing 5-7, losing to Ball State and Northern Illinois along the way. Minnesota was awful, going 2-10, but somehow they beat Notre Dame in their only conference win.
Order of Finish: Iowa, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Ball State, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northern Illinois, Minnesota

Florida - Champion: Florida
Florida, who were only 6-6 in real life, ran the table in this conference and had a perfect 12-0 season. They had their fair share of close wins along the way, never really looking like a dominant team. However, whatifsports always picked them to win in the end.
Order of Finish: Florida, Miami (FL), Florida State, UCF, Southern Miss, Florida International, South Florida, Troy, Tulane, Florida Atlantic

Great Plains - Champion: Oklahoma
This was a very interesting conference. Defending National Champs Oklahoma State started the season 5-0 absolutely running up scores on teams, while Oklahoma lost to Florida in non-conference play and Arkansas lost their conference opener to Tulsa. Then, Oklahoma State got upset by Iowa State and started putting up smaller scores each week. Oklahoma continued to win until getting beat by Arkansas in Week 10, who already had 2 conference losses at that point. That set up a virtual elimination game in Week 11 between Arkansas and Oklahoma State, with the winner being able to win the conference title with an Oklahoma State win over Oklahoma in Week 12. Arkansas ended up winning the game and were in position to steal the conference title, but Oklahoma ended up beating Oklahoma State 59-55 in a crazy 2 OT shootout. On a side note, Nebraska somehow went 2-10 overall, losing to Arkansas State at home and blowing a 20+ point 4th quarter lead to Tulsa. I think Bo Pelini got fired in the simulation world.
Order of Finish: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Tulsa, Kansas, Arkansas State, Kansas State, Nebraska

Dixie - Champion: Alabama
Yawn. Yet another boring 12-0 finish for Alabama. Clemson started 6-0 until losing 41-13 to the Tide, and only finished 7-5 overall. Georgia Tech finished 2nd with only a 6-3 conference record.
Order of Finish: Alabama, Georgia Tech, Georgia, Mississippi State, Clemson, Auburn, UAB, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Louisiana-Monroe

Gulf Coast - Champion: Houston
This was yet another crazy conference, where 6 teams were in the hunt for most of the season. Houston lost big at Texas early, but then turned it around and won at LSU the following week. LSU got beat by Louisiana-Lafayette in what may be the biggest upset ever in my sim. LSU also lost to SMU and Stanford in non-conference play. SMU was extremely good, finishing 10-2 overall and actually had a shot to win the conference if Houston had lost in the final week because Houston lost a crazy 5 OT shootout to Baylor in non-conference play, 64-62.
Order of Finish: Houston, SMU, LSU, TCU, Texas A&M, Texas, Louisiana Tech, Rice, Louisiana-Lafayette, North Texas

Mountain West - Champion: Texas Tech
Just like last year, this conference was just awful again. Texas Tech, Baylor, and BYU ended up finishing 7-2 in conference but BYU only finished 7-5 overall, eliminating them from the tiebreaker with the other 2 teams, who finished 8-4. Texas Tech beat Baylor in the final week of the season to win the conference.
Order of Finish: Texas Tech, Baylor, BYU, Colorado, Wyoming, Colorado State, UTEP, Air Force, New Mexico State, New Mexico

Great Basin - Champion: Boise State
Just like last year and seemingly every year, this conference came down to one game, Boise State at Oregon, which Boise won 37-20. However, unlike last year, both teams were not undefeated in conference play going into the game. Oregon was 8-0 while Boise slipped up against Nevada in Week 11. Boise State also lost to Alabama, but luckily for them Oregon also had a non-conference loss to 4-8 Ohio State, which allowed the head-to-head tiebreaker to take effect.
Order of Finish: Boise State, Oregon, Washington State, Nevada, Washington, Utah State, Oregon State, Idaho, Utah, UNLV

California - Champion: USC
Since we aren't the NCAA, USC has no sanctions and was allowed to participate in the tournament. They pretty much dominated the conference play but surprisingly lost to Fresno State on the road the week before beating Arizona to clinch the conference title. Not much else to say about this conference other than Fresno State and Arizona did surprisingly well, while UCLA was bad this year, but probably not 1-11 bad. Defending conference champ Hawaii was only 2-10.
Order of Finish: USC, Arizona, Stanford, Fresno State, California, San Diego State, San Jose State, Arizona State, Hawaii, UCLA

Well the tournament is set here are the results:
First Round
#8 Oklahoma vs. #9 Tennessee - Tennessee wins 19-13 - The playoffs kicked off with a scoreless first quarter. Each team traded field goals and Oklahoma took a 10-3 lead into the half. The game entered the 4th quarter tied at 13 but Derrick Brodus tacked on 2 more field goals for the Vols to give them the win. Landry Jones had a disappointing game for the Sooners, throwing 3 INTs
#5 Houston vs. #12 Texas Tech - Houston wins 41-3 - Good old fashioned Texas shootout here. The teams traded TDs until Tech kicked a field goal to be down 27-24 in the 3rd Quarter. Houston took a 34-24 lead into the 4th but Texas Tech responded with 2 TDs to take a 38-34 lead with 2:29 to go. However, the Cougars have Case Keenum, who successfully led Houston on a game winning TD drive, capped off with a Michael Hayes rushing TD with 13 seconds left. Keenum threw for 365 yards and 2 TDs
#6 Boise State vs. #11 Syracuse - Boise State wins 52-17 - Not surprisingly, this game was all Boise. The Orange came out early and punched the giants in the mouth, holding a 10-0 lead half way through the 2nd quarter. The Broncos responded by scoring 52 unanswered points which included 2 punt return TDs before Syracuse got a garbage time TD in the 4th. Doug Martin from Boise ran for 85 yards and 2 TDs.
#7 West Virginia vs. #10 Michigan State - Michigan State wins 30-23 - Another game with a slow first half, the Mountaineers took a 10-3 lead into the 2nd half. In the 2nd half, Kirk Cousins got the offense going and Michigan State took a 13-10 lead before West Virginia tied it going into the 4th. That's when things got exciting. Michigan State took a 23-13 lead with only 6 minutes to go after an Edwin Baker TD. West Virginia fought back and tied it with 1:56 to go. Cousins then led the Spartans on a game winning TD drive, connecting with Edwin Baker with 53 seconds to go.

Quarter Finals
#1 Alabama vs. #9 Tennessee - Alabama wins 67-16 - Alabama was just awesome here. After an opening FG by the Vols, the Tide answered with 24 points (3 Trent Richardson TDs). Tennessee finally scored a TD to make it 24-10, and Alabama again responded with 3 TDs to take a 40-10 lead early in the 3rd. Not to be outdone, Trent Richardson scored 2 more TDs. In total, Richardson ran for 235 yards and 5 TD, and AJ McCarron had 424 yards passing and 2 TDs
#4 Iowa vs. #5 Houston - Houston wins 44-27 - The cougars came out strong, taking an early 21-0 lead with 3 Case Keenum TD passes. From that point Iowa was trying to play catchup all day but only got within 11 points. Keenum threw for 312 yards and 4 TDs. In a losing effort, Iowa's Marcus Coker ran for 134 yards.
#3 USC vs. #6 Boise State - Boise State wins 45-41 - The Broncos came out on top of a great passing showdown between Kellen Moore and Matt Barkley. Boise took a 10-3 lead into the 2nd. USC bounced back with 3 TDs (2 of them long Curtis McNeal TD runs) in the 2nd to take a 24-17 lead going into the half. In the 3rd, USC increased their lead to 34-24. In the 4th, Kellen Moore came alive, throwing 2 quick TDs to put Boise ahead 38-34. USC responded with yet another McNeal TD run to take a 41-38 lead. Boise capped off the game with another Moore TD pass to DJ Harper. The Broncos D was able to get a turnover on downs in their own territory to hold the lead and get the win. Moore had 314 yards and 5 TDs. Barkley had 316 yards and 2 TDs. McNeal ran for 192 yards and had 3 TDs.
#2 Florida vs. #10 Michigan State - Florida wins 24-14 - The Florida D kept Kirk Cousins in check, and John Brantley managed to throw for 337 yards and 3 TDs. Cousins was only able to lead the Spartans on 1 scoring drive, because the other Michigan State TD was a punt return.

Semi-Finals
#1 Alabama vs. #5 Houston - Alabama wins 28-23 - Just like in the previous round, Trent Richardson was out of control. He ran for 139 yards and 2 TDs and had a receiving TD. Houston kept it close though. They actually took a 16-14 lead into the 4th quarter, but the Tide quickly scored 2 TDs to go up 28-16. Keenum managed to score another TD to make it 28-23 and Houston even got the ball back with 1:33 to go, but their final drive came up short on a hail mary in the endzone, putting Alabama in the championship game.
#2 Florida vs. #6 Boise State - Florida wins 31-29 - This was another exciting back and forth game. Florida started with a 14-7 lead but Boise answered with a Doug Martin TD. After the TD, they missed the extra point, leaving Florida ahead 14-13. Both teams scored TDs and FGs to leave Florida ahead 24-23. With 5:20 to go, Jeff Demps caught a TD from Brantley to put Florida up by 8 (thanks to the missed extra point). Boise responded with a Tyler Shoemaker TD with 2:29 to go, but their 2 point conversion attempt failed. The missed extra point cost Boise the game. There was a lot of offense in this game. Moore threw for 371 yards and Brantley for 335. Florida also ran the ball well. Chris Rainey had 141 yards and Jeff Demps had 104 yards 2 TDs, and a recieving TD.

The Championship Game
#1 Alabama vs. #2 Florida - Florida wins 37-13 - The semi-finals set up an interesting #1 vs. #2 national championship between the only 2 undefeated teams. As far as the result goes, wow. The Gators, who were only 6-6 in real life this year, are the national champs of my sim. This game was no contest. After an early Trent Richardson TD, the Gators answered with 37 unanswered points led by the unstoppable rushing attack of Chris Rainey (130 yards, TD) and Jeff Demps (110 yards, 2 TDs). John Brantley also threw for 380 yards and a TD. From our past experience, for some odd reason usually teams that do well in our sim end up being national title contenders the folowing year (like Oklahoma State, who won my sim last year) so maybe the Gators will be back in the national title picture next year.


So, just like last year, these sims are time consuming, but a lot of fun! I'm looking forward to doing this again next year. Go put some money on the Gators to make a BCS bowl.

The problem with an 8 team playoff

The fundamental issues with the BCS is that it provides an unfair advantage to several conferences, and that individuals can skew who is involved in the championship. Ultimately, the game wouldn't be decided on the field, as it allegedly is in other sports.
With the onslaught against the BCS rightfully underway once again, many people are proposing their self described perfect solution of an 8 team playoff. Most of these solutions involve selecting the top 8 BCS teams, or the BCS conference champions, and the top two at larges. In those cases, the tournament would include either a set of LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Stanford, Oregon, Arkansas, Boise State, and Kansas State, or LSU, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Wisconsin, Clemson, West Virginia, Alabama and Stanford.
So I ask you, what exactly have we solved with EITHER solution? Via the first method, the SEC gets three teams, a Boise State team that couldn't even win the MWC gets in, the Big Ten gets left out and it's overly reliant on early season perception that tends to favor certain teams regardless of their quality. The second solution, again, gives unfair advantages to certain conferences. West Virginia, because they won a terrible Big East would get in ahead of TCU and Southern Miss, who were possibly better teams in what may have been better conferences.
So, no, you can't just stop at 8 teams. If you want to create a tournament with the purpose of fairness across college football, an 8 team tournament is a failure. If you create a tournament, the only way to go is to include all 11 conference champions as a starting point. The advantage of a bye week will subsequently be transferred to the best teams, but at least teams that have done what was asked of them, by winning their conference, will have a shot.
I'm generally opposed to at-large additions to a tournament, because it introduces the possibility of objectivity in helping to decide a national champion, but if the desire is there for a 16 team tournament, then I would be on board with this far more than I am with the oft proposed 8 team ideas.
And YES, this is an introductory post to the Victoria Times football simulation, which will be underway within the next week or so (as soon as Whatifsports has their 2011 rosters online). As a very brief reminder, it is a simulation of an idealized NCAA where conferences are geographic, and consist of 10 teams each (12 conferences total) with every conference champion entering into a post season tournament, ensuring that everything is decided based on what happened on the field. Look forward to that over the next month or so.

This really isn't the best anti-BCS year

Before I get started, I just want to point out that I also endorse the idea of a college football playoff, so don't read this post into a debate against that. What I am going to assert is that if you are going to say that a college football playoff is the way to go, this is not the season to pick that battle.
You see, this year, it seems as though LSU is the best team in the country. The next closest teams are Alabama and Arkansas. Alabama has already lost to LSU and LSU has the chance to (and in my opinion probably will) beat Arkansas on Saturday. They beat Oregon, who beat Stanford, who is one of the top teams from other conferences. Oklahoma State lost to a miserable Iowa State team. Virginia Tech might be the highest remaining team that is in the top 10 who hasn't had a shot at LSU, or lost to a team that did. And nobody really thinks Virginia Tech is the 2nd best team in the nation, do they?
So yes, you can talk about the confusion in the polls and the mire behind the Tigers, but really, this season is one that could have been satisfactorily been solved using the old method, before even the BCS came to be. Everyone knows the LSU Tigers are the best team in the country. Instead of wasting energy on complaining about this season, how about trying to think of a thorough, fair solution that will work for every season going forward?

Allow me some schadenfreude

Every single year, people jump on Big Ten teams for their soft non conference schedule, and complains when a Big Ten team goes undefeated and ends up in the national title game. It happens every time. On the opposite end of the spectrum, people complain about Boise State going undefeated and not making it in. I understand that it has something to do with people and their desire for a playoff, because everyone has a poorly thought out plan that they would love to see enacted.
I'm not here to write about the desire for a playoff, I think that's a universal goal. What I am writing about is the double standard. Someone complains about generic Big Ten team going undefeated (they played a weak non conference schedule!) when they play in one of the top 4-5 conferences in the country, even in their worst years. People laud Boise State's accomplishments when they go undefeated, and they play in one of the worst conferences in the country. Well, I suppose they tried to get into a better conference this year. The plaudits will be somewhat less annoying this year when they roll through the Mountain West. Wait. What's that?

HA! Screw you, Boise State!

Once again, the Victoria Times staff has the best solution

We've been running our Victoria Times college football simulation for 3 years, and this will be the fourth. With conference realignment running rampant, it's still not any more likely that the BCS will be scrapped for a tournament.

But that's not why I came. One of the issues I have always had with tournaments was the assertion that there would be wild card or at large bids.How can you win a national title if you can't even win your conference? Or division?

This came to a head two years ago when the Big 12 South was hotly contested by Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. As luck would have it, though, all three were in different Victoria Times conferences, and all were eligible for the post season tournament, if they won their respective conferences, proving once again that ours is the best solution. Of course, that year TCU, Missouri and BYU won the VT conferences. Oops.

We are in a similar situation this year. Alabama and LSU are 1-2 in the BCS and are thus far tied in the SEC west. Now, it doesn't seem very likely that the two teams would have a chance to both play the national championship game, even though they might be the top teams in the land. Fortunately, once again, we have the chance to put two elite teams from the same division in the VT tournament. Alabama and LSU are in the Dixie and Gulf Coast conferences, respectively. Of course, if this goes the same way it did last time we had this situation, Louisiana Tech and Auburn will make it to the tournament.

Stay tuned for December when we run the simulation to find out what happens! Stanford is the defending champ.

What now for the Big Ten?

With the word that Syracuse and Pitt are headed for the ACC, it is just further evidence that the NCAA as we know it is falling apart, headed for the 4 super conference structure. Those conferences, apparently, are the SEC, ACC, PAC 12 and local favorite, the Big Ten.. Many other conferences are figured out in terms of expansion. The Pac 12 will add Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, as well as, perhaps, Texas Tech and another team. The ACC, already at 14 with the addition of Pitt and Syracuse, may end up with Texas as well, which will need to take 1 more to make it an even 16. The SEC is already nabbing Texas A&M and Missouri will probably follow. They too will look to add another pair of teams.
The important thing for the Big Ten is this: three of the teams they thought they would add may end up in the ACC. They will likely continue to press for the New York market for their Big Ten Network. This means Rutgers is all but guaranteed to eventually receive an offer. Notre Dame will continue to be pressured. Other than that... Connecticut? One of the Kansas schools? The Big Ten may look very different very soon, but I don't think anyone will be able to anticipate where it is going.

The danger of not thinking things through

I've often said my issue with going to a playoff system in college football is that people are so eager for playoffs, a good plan is yet to have bee presented. I will admit that even the Victoria Times solution, reorganization into 12 conference tournaments with the champions of said conferences entering a 12 team conference. It addresses some things that I have an issue with in most plans: It gives everyone a chance, makes the regular season matter for every team and does away with any influence of the polls or media. The problem, of course, is that teams like, say, Colorado wouldn't go for it, now that they are in the Pac-12. They have a stated desire to play on the west coast, where recruiting is plentiful. In our geographic realignment, they would play schools essentially in the middle of nowhere.
All that said, this piece by Sam Eifling is also met by logistical oversight. He makes the argument FOR moving to the 4 superconferences that many have stated they expect to see coming by showing the cupcake games some teams have played this year so far. I have two issues with his piece:
1) Eifling's examples include 6 non FBS schools, which takes away from his "BCS conference schools are better" argument. Of course those schools are worse. They aren't even at the same level.
2) He fails to note that the real issue is that, of the FBS schools refuse to schedule the GOOD non BCS schools. He introduces matchups like Oregon vs LSU, but he doesn't point out that nobody wants to play a school like Houston, for fear they might get beaten by an up and comer.
I understand the allure to playoff enthusiasts of the idea of super conferences. I worry that we will never see a school remake it's reputation as a football powerhouse like Utah, TCU or Boise State ever again. Teams like Houston and Boise State will be left the cupcakes in the NCAA, and be forced to play them across their entire schedule. Good football schools will be forced to become cupcakes too.

Ahhh college football

Football. Gives you the warm fuzzies, no? Anyways, without real interpretation, and wanting to give you some substance, here are my predictions for the Big 10 and then the BCS bowls:
Leaders
Wisconsin
Penn State
Ohio State
Illinois
Indiana
Purdue (Purdue is so bad, you guys)
Legends
Michigan
Nebraska
Michigan State
Northwestern
Minnesota
Iowa

I went a little crazy in the Legends conference, didn't I? I just wanted to be different.... Anywho, here are the BCS bowls (oh, and Wisconsin wins the Big Ten championship)
Keeping in mind, I think that, in the past, the Victoria Times sim has done an excellent job prognosticating breakout teams the following year, there might be a surprise in here for you.
Rose Bowl: Florida State-Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl: Georgia - Texas A&M
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech - Louisville
Sugar Bowl: Alabama - Michigan
BCS Championship: Oklahoma - Stanford

I am predicting Georgia to win tonight and Boise State, despite their talent, to be shut out from the BCS. Major conferences would be more than happy to let a 2nd ACC team in rather than Boise State. Michigan, I think, will need only the most tenuous grasp on BCS eligibility to get invited because they travel so well.

The Victoria Times College Football preview

I'm not going to get too far into detail on this, mostly because I haven't been to Spring Practices, I haven't stayed abreast of recruiting news and I am decidedly not an expert. This is just me talking here. The teams that I will cover are the ones that are of most importance to the Victoria Times. Purdue, Minnesota, North Dakota State, and this year's wild card, Wyoming.

Purdue: The Boilers, I think, are in a lot of trouble. Their first two choices for QB are injured (ACL's, of course) and one of those guys is entangled in the Miami fiasco. Still, Purdue has 15 returning starters, so this will tell us a lot about Danny Hope as a recruiter and coach. I say he sucks, but we will find out on the field, I suppose. If there is any light with this team, it's that they might have a decent ground attack. If Ralph Bolden stays healthy, then that is good news.

Minnesota: I am much higher on the Gophers this year. They won't be good, but I like their future. Jerry Kill seems to be what the team needs, and there are some athletes on the roster, like Marqueis Gray that might be able to surprise some weaker teams in the Big Ten. And then going forward, I think the Gophers will be a Bowl team for a while. Not this year though.

North Dakota State: I can say, with all honesty, that I know nothing about NDSU or their chances. I DO know that there are some outlets picking them to finish 2nd in their conference! They might be the best team listed here

Wyoming: The Cowboys have THREE freshmen competing to be the starting quarterback. Yikes. They are also playing in the one year that the Mountain West might be at it's toughest, with both Boise State AND TCU in conference. Still, they might pull off a win or two, like against, I don't know, UNLV (who they will play while I am there, and lost by almost 40 at Wisconsin today)

A way to early prediction on the Big Ten championship game

I am trying desperately not to get stuck in a baseball only, or NFL draft only rut where it comes to my posts, so I decided to come up with this... A post where I try to make picks for a season that won't begin until late August.
OK, there is going to be no rational explanation on any of this, just a winnowing down of the teams until I have someone I can take for the championship game. The divisions, for those that don't remember are:
"Legends": Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska and Northwestern
"Leaders": Illinois, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin

All right, let's first eliminate the teams that don't have any chance. That leaves the conferences as:
Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State and Nebraska vs Ohio State and Wisconsin.
Well, for the first, it's just a toss up between Ohio State and Wisconsin. One of the schools doesn't have the NCAA breathing down their necks. Wisconsin is in the title game!
As for the other division, I think all 4 of these teams could play much better or worse than anyone expects. One of these teams will reel off several wins to put them in the hunt. It's basically the Big 12 north that Nebraska tried so gallantly to leave. Michigan has a new coach, and Iowa has a new QB, so I will drop those two. Michigan State or Nebraska? I am going to say Michigan State, for no other reason than it would be funny to me if the realignment ended with this particular title game. Wisconsin vs Michigan State, neither of which are exactly marquee names in the conference which tried desperately to set up Michigan-Ohio State or Penn State-Nebraska scenarios. I hope it's always like this.

Steve's 2010 College Football Sim

Unlike last year, when I didn't manage to post the the results of my college football blowup sim until late February, this year I'm doing it a month earlier, on January 23, only 13 days after the end of the actual season. Ryan did a sim as well and posted it on the date of the BCS Championship. I'll take the liberty of letting you follow the link to his post where he links to the origin of the college football reorganization that we came up with and how our sim is structured. Here are some fun facts from my sim this year, then I'll get into the conference breakdowns:

- 7 of my conference champs went 9-0 in conference, while 3 were 8-1 and 2 were 7-2. Tiebreakers were only needed in the 2 conferences where the conference champ was 7-2. 7 teams won their conference by 2 games.
- My strongest conference was the Dixie, who went 66-54 overall.
- The worst conference was a 3 way tie between New England, Tobacco Road, and Mountain West, who went 57-63.
- 3 of my 12 playoff teams from last year returned: Alabama, Boise State, and defending champs, TCU
- Only 2 of the real-life 10 BCS teams made my tournament: Wisconsin and TCU, but 4 of them finished 2nd in their conference. Virginia Tech was only 5-7 (and also had the hardest fall of any 2009 conference champ)
- 3 teams had a losing record last year and won the conference this year: Temple (5-7), Florida State (4-8), and Hawaii (2-10)
- A MAC or Sun Belt team finished in last in 8 of a possible 9 conferences that have a team from 1 of those 2 conferences.
- The Pac-10 was shut out of the tournament
- I had 5 12-0 teams overall, Pittsburgh, Michigan State, Florida State, Oklahoma State, Alabama
- I had 2 0-12 teams overall, Ball State and New Mexico

Here are the results, conference by conference by conference.

New England - Champion: Temple
What a shock! Believe it or not, this was not my first MAC team to win a conference. Akron won the Great Lakes in 2008. Things didn't start well for Temple, losing to 4-8 Wyoming and 3-9 UCLA in non-conference, and then to Boston College, but they turned it around and finished the season with 8 straight wins, including a 48-44 2 OT win at Maryland in the final week after being down 24-0.
Order of finish: Temple, Penn State, Maryland, Syracuse, Boston College, UConn, Rutgers, Navy, Buffalo, Army

Appalachian - Champion: Pittsburgh
The Panthers pulled off one of the 5 12-0 seasons, but did not receive a first round bye due to playing in a 59-61 conference and having a weaker non-conference schedule than Michigan State. Other than a scare at Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh gave everyone a pretty good beatdown while there was a lot of parity throughout the rest of the conference
Order of Finish: Pittsburgh, Kentucky, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Louisville, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Ohio, Marshall, Miami (OH)

Great Lakes - Champion: Michigan State
The Spartans won their pivotal game over Ohio State in this not-so-competitive conference to finish 12-0 and get the #4 seed. The Buckeyes also suffered an embarrassing loss to Central Michigan. Michigan finished 3-9 and in 9th place in a conference that only has 3 real life Big Ten and 7 MAC teams.
Order of Finish: Michigan State, Ohio State, Central Michigan, Toledo, Kent State, Western Michigan, Bowling Green, Akron, Michigan, Eastern Michigan

Tobacco Road - Champion: North Carolina
Last year, Tennessee won this conference by only going 8-4 but held a tiebreaker over North Carolina, who they beat in Knoxville. This year, North Carolina had its revenge, beating Tennessee in Chapel Hill in the final week of the regular season to win the conference title, finish 10-2, and get the #10 seed in the tourney.
Order of Finish: North Carolina, Tennessee, Duke, Vanderbilt, East Carolina, Memphis, NC State, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest, Western Kentucky

Midwest - Champion: Wisconsin
The Badgers blew through this conference, going 9-0 and 11-1 overall, with their only loss at Oklahoma. The rest of the conference had a decent amount of parity, with some surprises, like Notre Dame finishing 9-3 (7-2) with that one non-conference loss at home to Florida International, or Indiana finishing 7-5 (5-4) somehow. Things didn't go so well for Purdue and Minnesota who finished (3-6) 4-8 and (2-7) 3-9 for 7th and 9th, respectively. What was Purdue's reward for that 7th place finish? A trip to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech next year!
Order of Finish: Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Iowa, Indiana, Northern Illinois, Illinois, Purdue, Northwestern, Minnesota, Ball State

Florida - Champion: Florida State
Whatifsports must not like Bobby Bowden, because after a 4-8 season last year and his retirement, they finish a perfect 12-0 this year. They did seem pretty beatable though, barely winning most games and went relatively unchallenged non-conference, beating 0-12 Ball State and 1-11 Arkansas State.
Order of Finish: Florida State, Florida, Southern Miss, Miami (FL), Central Florida, Tulane, South Florida, Florida International, Troy, Florida Atlantic

Great Plains - Champion: Oklahoma State
The Great Plains had 6 great teams and 4 terrible teams. Nebraska seemed to be in the driver's seat early in the year, starting 6-0 until they got blown out by Arkansas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State 3 weeks in a row. This set up Oklahoma-Oklahoma State as the showdown of the season, which was won by the Cowboys at home, 48-45.
Order of Finish: Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas State, Tulsa, Iowa State, Kansas, Arkansas State

Dixie - Champion: Alabama
The Crimson Tide, who disappointed a little in real life this year, dominated this conference, and went 12-0 and got the #1 seed in the tournament. They beat real life national champs Auburn 61-7 (who only finished 7-5) and got big wins over Boise State and Ohio State in non-conference play. This was the strongest conference this year by win-loss record.
Order of Finish: Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, Clemson, UAB, Mississippi State, Louisiana-Monroe

Gulf Coast - Champion: TCU
TCU won this conference by 2 games, but it wasn't without its share of crazy upsets. TCU lost to Rice. LSU, who looked to be in good shape after that TCU loss, lost 3 absolute blowouts in a row to Texas A&M, TCU, and Texas. A&M couldn't capitalize on the TCU loss either, losing to TCU, Houston, and SMU. SMU is overcoming the "Death Penalty" in the sim, just like in real life, finishing 8-4 and in 3rd place this year.
Order of Finish: TCU, LSU, SMU, Texas A&M, Rice, Houston, Texas, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, North Texas

Mountain West - Champion: Air Force
This crazy, parity filled conference has no real national powerhouses, so it was only natural that someone like Air Force could pull it out. One of the 3 weakest conferences, only Baylor went 3-0 in the non-conference schedule, but only went 4-5 in conference play. Colorado, Texas Tech, and BYU all held the lead at some point, but in the end it was Air Force who barely squeaked by Colorado, Texas Tech, and BYU to clinch the conference title with a week to play. Had BYU beaten Air Force, Colorado would have won. Since Air Force did not need to win in the final week, they didn't, losing to UTEP to finish 8-4.
Order of Finish: Air Force, Colorado, BYU, UTEP, Texas Tech, Baylor, Colorado State, New Mexico State, Wyoming, New Mexico

Great Basin - Champion: Boise State
This conference came down to one game, Oregon at Boise State, which Boise won 38-27. Boise pretty much dominated conference play, capped by the biggest blowout of the year, a 94-3 win over Utah State. However, both Boise State and Oregon finished 10-2, with Boise losing to Alabama and Ohio State in non-conference play and Oregon losing to old QB Jeremiah Masoli and Ole Miss in week 1.
Order of Finish: Boise State, Oregon, Nevada, Utah, Oregon State, Washington, Idaho, Washington State, Utah State, UNLV

California - Champion: Hawaii
This may have been the biggest surprise of them all, considering that Stanford won the national title in Ryan's sim. This was the craziest conference for parity, with a 5-way tie for first place with 2 games to go between the top 6 finishers listed below, minus California. In the end it was Stanford and Hawaii who finished tied with a 10-2 (7-2) record, but it was Hawaii who got the critical 27-20 win at Stanford in Week 9 that put the Warriors in the tournament. Hawaii's conference losses were to Arizona and San Diego State, while Stanford blew their chance at winning it by also losing to Arizona State at home
Order of Finish: Hawaii, Stanford, California, San Diego State, Arizona, Arizona State, USC, UCLA, San Jose State, Fresno State

Well the tournament is set here are the results:
First Round
#8 Hawaii vs. #9 Boise State - Hawaii wins 37-33 in 2 OT. Boise State took a low scoring 13-9 lead into the 4th quarter. In the 4th, Austin Pettis scored on a touchdown pass with 3:24 to go, only to have Hawaii answer with a touchdown by Kealoha Pilares with 44 seconds to go, sending thegame into OT at 23-23. Each team scored a TD in the 1st OT, and in the 2nd OT, Boise opened with a field goal, but Alex Green scored on a 25 yard run to send Hawaii to the 2nd round. The 2 teams combined for 853 passing yards and 6 TD passes.
#5 Pittsburgh vs. #12 Air Force - Pittsburgh wins 24-17. Pittsburgh opened up an early 17-0 from touchdowns by Ray Graham and Mike Shanahan (probably not the Redskins coach). Air Force fought back, tying the game at 17 in the 4th, but Pittsburgh sealed the win with a Devin Street TD with 5:36 to go.
#6 TCU vs. #11 Temple - TCU wins 53-10 - TCU dominated this game in every way imaginable, taking a 34-3 lead into the 4th. After a Temple TD at the very beginning of the 4th, things got ugly. TCU kicked a field goal, scored on a safety, scored another offensive TD, and to top it off, scored on a 71 yard interception return for a TD by Jurell Thompson. TCU didn't need to do much on offense, because Temple QB Mike Gerardi threw 5 interceptions, giving the Horned Frogs good field position.
#7 Wisconsin vs. #10 North Carolina - Wisconsin wins 41-34 - Both teams traded scoring throughout the entire game, with Wisconsin taking the biggest lead of the game, 11 points, into half time. North Carolina fought back and took a 27-24 lead early in the 4th. Wisconsin recaptured the lead, thanks to a field goal and a Montee Ball 62 yard TD run. North Carolina tied the game at 34 with 1:51 to go, seemingly sending it to Overtime. But on the first play of their next posession, John Clay scored on a 58 yard TD run to put Wisconsin in the lead for good. The Tar Heels had no answer for Ball and Clay, who ran for 299 yards and 3 TDs

Quater Finals
#1 Alabama vs. #8 Hawaii - Alabama wins 45-30 - Alabama jumped to an early 24-7 lead, fueld by 3 Mark Ingram TDs, but Hawaii fought back, tying the game at 24 in the 3rd quarter. After that point, Alabama scored 3 more TDs while Hawaii could only muster up 2 more field goals. Greg McElroy was on target for the Crimson Tide, completing 21 of 28 passes for 367 yards and 2 TDs.
#4 Michigan State vs. #5 Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh wins 41-27 - Michigan State entered the 4th quater with a 20-17 lead, and even had a 27-24 lead with 8 minutes to go, but then everything fell apart. The Panthers retaliated with a TD to take a 31-27 lead. On the following drive, Kirk Cousins threw an INT which led to another Pittsburgh TD, and Edwin Baker fumbled the ball on the first play of Michigan State's final drive to seal the win for Pittsburgh. Dion Lewis ran for 218 yards and 2 TDs for Pittsburgh
#3 Florida State vs. #6 TCU - TCU wins 45-13 - The Horned Frogs had their way with the previously undefeated Seminoles. Florida State QB Christian Ponder only completed 20 of 42 passes as the TCU defense dominated again. Ed Wesley went crazy for TCU as well, running for 161 yards and 4 TDs
#2 Oklahoma State vs. #7 Wisconsin - Oklahoma State wins 31-23 - The Badgers dominated the first half and early into the 2nd half, but kicked more field goals than TDs to take a 23-10 lead. After that, it was all Oklahoma State. Kendall Hunter scored on a 53 yard TD run to cut the game to 23-17, and in the 4th quarter, Brandon Weeden connected with Justin Blackmon for 2 TD passes to give the Cowboys the win. Ball and Clay, who ran like crazy on North Carolina in the first round, were held to only 63 yards rushing (Clay did have both Wisconsin TDs though)

Semi-Finals
#1 Alabama vs. #5 Pittsburgh - Alabama wins 30-6 - Pittsburgh's highlight reel ended in the 1st quarter, as they took a 3-0 lead into the 2nd. Alabama went crazy in the 2nd, Scoring 23 points on 3 TDs (with a missed PAT) and a field goal, two of those TDs scored by Mark Ingram. Both teams added their final points in the 3rd and went scoreless in the 4th. McElroy threw for 313 yards and 3 TDs for the Tide.
#2 Oklahoma State vs. #6 TCU - Oklahoma State wins 40-16 - OKLAHOMA STATE ARE MEN!! THEY SCORED 40!! Much like the other semifinal, the Cowboys entered the 2nd quater with a 6-3 lead, then scored 24 points in the 2nd to take a 30-6 lead into half time. Andy Dalton's 3rd consecutive below average playoff game finally cost the Horned Frogs, and Oklahoma State's offensive stars exploded: 193 yards and 2 TDs for Kendall Hunter, 120 yards receiving for Justin Blackmon, and 321 yards and 2 TDs for QB Brandon Weeden.

The Championship Game
#1 Alabama vs. #2 Oklahoma State - Oklahoma State wins 41-33 - The semi-finals set up an interesting #1 vs. #2 national championship between 2 14-0 teams. Kendall Hunter scored on a goaline rush to give the Cowboys an early 7-0 lead, which was answered by Mark Ingram to tie it at 7. Bo Bowling scored on a TD catch for Oklahoma State, which as also answered by Alabama, in the form of a Darius Hanks TD catch from McElroy, tying the game at 14 heading into the 2nd. Each team kicked a field goal in the 2nd, giving us a 17-17 tie at half time. In the 3rd, Trent Richardson ran in a TD for Alabama, which was answered by another Cowboy field goal, giving the Tide a 24-20 lead heading into the 4th. Oklahoma State wasted no time taking the lead back, as Weeden connected to Michael Harrison. Alabama retalliated, scoring on a 33 yard TD catch by Marquis Maze (missing the PAT) and kicking a field goal to go up 33-27 with 5:45 to go. Oklahoma State answered wtih a Weeden to Blackmon TD to give the Cowboys a 34-33 lead (thanks to that missed PAT). Alabama went 4 and out, setting up a final Kendall Hunter TD run to give the Cowboys and crazy Mike Gundy a National Championship!


So, just like last year, these sims are time consuming, but a lot of fun! I'm looking forward to doing this again next year.

The Victoria Times National Championship

With the actual college football season wrapping up tonight, I also wrapped up the Victoria Times NCAA football simulation (well, my version anyways. Steve is in Week 10 of his version). Please read this or this to see how the simulation is done, not to mention the motivations behind everything. There was another, three part post that consumed a more detailed rationale behind the idea of our simulation, and you can read that here. I would read the shorter stuff.
So let's get into this recap. Let me start with a few points of interest.
- This year, only 2 teams (Boise State and Tennessee) went undefeated in conference, while there were 4 two loss conference champs. Lots of tiebreakers this year.
- There were 11 different teams from last year's tournament, with the only holdover Boise State.
- The best conference was the California conference (first time it wasn't the Dixie), with the worst, far and away, the Mountain West
- A grand total of TWO BCS teams made the tournament, Stanford and TCU
- There was only one undefeated team, Boise State. Also, there were no winless teams. A lot more parity this season.

Now, the conference summaries. These are listed in an order so that the first 4 were in the same pod, the next 4 in the same, and the last 4 in the same, meaning they played each other in their non conference schedule. Here we go.

Dixie: 2010 champion - Alabama
2011: Georgia. Yes, the Bulldogs were certainly one of the strangest teams to become conference champion in a while, particularly when you consider that the conference they came from also is home to tonight's BCS title contender Auburn and Alabama, a team some people call one of the best teams in the country, even with their losses this year. It came down to a last minute field goal against Alabama to give Georgia the conference championship. Clemson is an interesting team to note, because they played both Auburn and Oregon... and won both games. They also lost at home to Kent State. Whatifsports is strange. Also, the engine at Whatif still doesn't like Georgia Tech.
Order of Finish: Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina, Clemson, Mississippi State, Mississippi, UAB, Georgia Tech, Louisiana-Monroe

Great Basin: 2010 - Boise State
2011: Boise State - Oregon is the national title contender out of this conference, but in this simulation, they lost on the road at Clemson to start the season, and then at home against Boise State late in the year, but still ended up in second. The bottom of the conference was very weak, with three 1-8 (2-10 overall) teams, helping sap the strength of this conference after sneaking past the top two.
Order of Finish: Boise State, Oregon, Utah, Oregon State, Nevada, Idaho, Washington, Utah State, Washington State, UNLV

Appalachian: 2010 - Virginia Tech
2011: Louisville. Yeah, in a year that the Georgia Bulldogs unseated the powers from Alabama, the Louisville Cardinals made it to the tournament, as a team that ended up with a first round bye no less. Virginia Tech, the traditional favorite here, was abysmal, losing their three non conference games, followed by three more in conference. Pitt looked to have the conference locked up, before falling by 1 at home to West Virginia in the last week of the season. Virginia managed to be one of the final undefeateds in the country as well. Kentucky was surprisingly bad.
Order of finish: Louisville, Pittsburgh, Virginia, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Miami (OH), Cincinnati, Marshall, Ohio, Kentucky

Great Lakes: 2010 - Ohio State
2011: Michigan State. This was another conference that saw it's fate decided in the last week of the season Ohio State lost at Michigan State (MSU had lost earlier in the season to Central Michigan). Michigan continues to be a resounding disappointment in this conference, finishing 7th, behind such luminaries as Central Michigan, Kent State, Western Michigan and Bowling Green.
Order of Finish - Michigan State, Ohio State, Central Michigan, Kent State, Western Michigan, Bowling Green, Michigan, Toledo, Akron, Eastern Michigan.

New England: 2010 - Penn State
2011 - Maryland. Worst to first! Another odd qualifier for the post season, but they defeated real life BCS competitor UCONN. All in all, though, this was a very weak conference, with nobody from the conference entering the conference schedule undefeated.
Order of Finish: Maryland, Connecticut, Syracuse, Temple, Navy, Boston College, Penn State, Rutgers, Buffalo, Army

Florida: 2010 - Florida
2011 - Florida State. The Seminoles went winless last year. WINLESS, and now they won the conference that Florida has dominated all year. The Gators lost their final contest of the season against Miami, as well as their contest with the Seminoles earlier in the season, which gave Florida State a better head to head record, and entrance into the post season for the first time.
Order of Finish: Florida State, Florida, Florida International, Central Florida, Miami (FL), Southern Miss, Tulane, South Florida, Troy, Florida Atlantic

Gulf Coast: 2010 - Texas
2011: TCU. Finally, a conference that makes sense. Texas A&M made a charge for the top spot, but a head to head loss against the Horned Frogs was all the difference. There were a lot of strange upsets in this conference, including LSU losing to both Louisiana-Lafayette AND North Texas. TCU's one loss was to Houston.
Order of Finish: TCU, Texas A&M, Louisiana Tech, Houston, Texas, LSU, SMU, North Texas, Louisiana-Lafayette, Rice

Midwest: 2010 - Wisconsin
2011: Iowa. The conference that is nearest and dearest to our hearts at the Victoria Times was tumultuous and nonsensical. It was a strong conference, second strongest, in fact, in the country. At the end of various weeks, there were 5 different conference leaders at various points in the year, with Wisconsin, Northern Illinois, Illinois, Northwestern and the eventual champ, Iowa all having the top spot at some point. Iowa defeated Wisconsin in the final week of the season to get a trip to the tournament. Purdue and Minnesota, schools of note here, ended up in 8th and 10th, respectively. Yes, that's out of 10.
Order of Finish: Iowa, Wisconsin, Northern Illinois, Notre Dame, Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Ball State, Minnesota

Tobacco Road: 2010 - North Carolina
2011: Tennessee. Looking at the teams involved in this conference, one could only label it one thing... a Dumpster fire. Tennessee won the conference by a greater margin than any other conference champ, with the next placed teams, North and East Carolina, a full three games back of the undefeated (in conference) Volunteers. 5 teams ended the season 3-9. Dreadful.
Order of Finish: Tennessee, East Carolina, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Duke, Vanderbilt, Middle Tennessee State, Memphis, Western Kentucky, Wake Forest

California: 2010 - USC
2011: Stanford. This was the first time USC didn't win this conference, and they were deplorable this year. Stanford was the last team to lose their first game during the regular season, a stunner at home to Fresno. They had the conference pretty well managed, though, impressive given that this was the top conference in all the land.
Order of Finish: Stanford, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Arizona State, San Diego State, Fresno State, USC, UCLA, San Jose State

Great Plains: 2010 - Oklahoma
2011: Oklahoma State. This conference was pretty wild. It ended with a three way tie at the top that had to be broken by point differential, leaving Oklahoma State at the top, over Arkansas and Oklahoma. This wouldn't have been an issue had Missouri not upset the Cowboys in the final week of the season. Every team that was involved in the final tiebreak ended the season 9-3, making the Cowboys one of the lower seeds in the tournament. Nebraska had a surprisingly poor season
Order of Finish: Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas State, Tulsa, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa State, Arkansas State

Mountain West: 2010: Texas Tech
2010: Baylor. The Mountain West in real life is an upstart conference with strong teams (that are now pretty much scattering across the country). In the sim, it has been one of the weakest conferences the past couple of years. Texas Tech, who won the conference last year were susceptible to big home losses, including one to the eventual champs Baylor, who also lost their fair share of bad games, including conference contests against Colorado and Wyoming. It was just a strange conference.
Order of Finish:  Baylor, BYU, Texas Tech, Colorado, Colorado State, Air Force, Wyoming, UTEP, New Mexico State, New Mexico

And now on to the National Championship tournament, which is played using various bowl games (the oldest of them get playoff games, the older (or BCS) games get contests later on down the line) with the National Championship game being hosted by the Appalachian conference, and played in Washington, DC this year. On to the games.

Peach Bowl: #8 Michigan State 24, #9 Iowa 14. The Big Ten placed a team in the quarterfinals! Not so bad after all! Despite Ricky Stanzi's 227yds through the air, the Spartans dominated this one.

Gator Bowl: #5 TCU 37, #12 Florida State 34: This game was a lot closer than I think anyone would have anticipated, coming down to a late touchdown for the Horned Frogs to overcome a fierce performance for Florida State.

Citrus (Capital One) Bowl: #11 Baylor 45, #6 Tennessee 20: So much for that dominant conference record, Tennessee. Baylor got a huge day from QB Robert Griffin and surprisingly moved on to the quarters.

Liberty Bowl: #10 Oklahoma State 37, #7 Maryland 13. The two "upsets" were also the biggest blowouts. Maryland couldn't keep up with the Cowboys, getting their only touchdown on a punt return, but not forcing enough punts to be competetive.

This of course led to the quarterfinals.
Orange Bowl: #1 Boise State 54, #8 Michigan State 10. So much for the strength of the Big Ten. Kellen Moor threw for 5 touchdowns and threw for almost 500 yards.

Cotton Bowl: #5 TCU 38, #4 Louisville 7. All is right with the world after this whitewashing. Ed Wesley ran for 155 yards and had a rushing and receiving touchdown

Sun Bowl: #3 Georgia 30, #11 Baylor 17. This game was tied going into the 4th quarter, with Baylor looking to run through both of the SEC teams. It was not to be as Aaron threw for all three Bulldog touchdowns. And Georgia was one of the Final 4 teams in the tournament.

Fiesta Bowl: #2 Stanford 56, #10 Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State jumped out to a huge lead in this contest, but through the game Stanford picked their way back into it. With 2 minutes left, the Cowboys returned a punt to the 5 to tie the game again in the 4th quarter. Stanford marched it back down the field, however, for a last second, game winning TD.

And with that, the final four was set, one game away from the National Championship in Washington

Rose Bowl: #1 Boise State 55, #5 TCU 21. It looked like nobody could stop the Broncos, especially Doug Martin who ran for 240 yards. Ridiculous numbers from Boise State.

Sugar Bowl #2 Stanford 47 #3 Georgia 41 (OT). It was another nail biter, with the Cardinal coming back late again to send the game to overtime. They got the ball first, but missed the extra point. Georgia got it down to the 4 yard line but were stopped short on the final play of the game to send Stanford to a date with Boise State.
Stanford fell behind again, with Boise going up 21-0 early, looking as though they were going to destroy their opponent once again, despite this being the first 1-2 matchup in the history of the tournament. Stanford, just like in every other one of their games, came charging back, and it came down to the last drive of the game, down by 2. With three seconds left, they kicked one through the uprights to win the national title 41-40

Here is the link to the game if you wanted to click through it, because it really was dramatic, in a simulated kind of way.
There is usually a lesson in these sims, and I think I have one for this year's adventure... It's a razor thin wire between success and failure. There were a lot of last second wins and losses, not only for Stanford, but say, for Alabama against Georgia to stay out of the tournament. It takes not only skill but a little bit of luck every season.
I can't tell you how much I enjoy this exercise every year, and I can't wait until the 2012 champion will be crowned.

The NCAA simulation is underway

Whatifsports has updated their rosters for the 2010 NCAA season, and I have taken it upon myself to start the simulation to try to find the Victoria Times national champion.
For those that don't remember, this is the annual reminder post. The whole idea for this came from a conversation Steve and I had several years ago. Many people feel that a playoff is the right way to determine a national champion, but the playoff solution was still flawed. Teams elected were still based on the inherently biased polls, some of the teams wouldn't even win their conference and would still be added to hypothetical tournament brackets. For all the "winning it on the field" talk, the tournaments would still be largely based on the opinions of old people.
The idea of a tournament that would take the conference champions was lobbed around in our conversation. For the short term, that would be fine, but there would still be talk of the disparity in large and small conferences. To balance them out, we redistributed the teams into geographic conferences, rather than ones b based on money. Were there some conferences that end up weaker than others? Of course, but in the end, there weren't any top to bottom Sun Belt to SEC type of disparities. There are 120 NCAA teams, and we have created 12, 10 team conferences, as seen below.

For seeding purposes, we also have a preordained non conference schedule based on 4 conference groupings wherein the schedule is based on the previous year's order of finish. The groupings, or "pods" are rearranged every two years based on the strength of the conferences.
And I know what you are saying. 12 teams? But how is that going to work? The same way the NFL does. There will be 4 teams with a first round bye and 8 that play in the first round. Nobody seems to have issues with the NFL. Games will be played at the 12 oldest bowl sites (not that it REALLY matters in a simulation) and the national title rotates from conference to conference every year. This year, the hypothetical championship would be in Washington DC.
So we are in our 4th year, and Steve and I each run our own version of the sim. Our entire NCAA format is peeling off in wildly different directions, and we almost always end up with different tournament fields and different champions. It's an interesting exercise, if nothing else.
The last thing I wanted to mention was how we do the simulation. We go game by game, using whatifsports.com, which does their own thorough college football tournament simulation, featuring 16 of the top teams across the country. If you follow us on twitter @victoriawxtimes I have been posting updates. I am through the second week, and right now Stanford looks like the top team. Should be fun!

Let's See How the Conferences Did Against Each Other

Two Years ago, I made the case that Virginia Tech and Cincinnati potentially could have been considered for the National Title game because they came out of a very competitive ACC and Big East, two conferences that fared extremely well against their BCS opponents. Putting together those stats got me wondering, so since I'm pretty much the stats guy on this site, let's take a look at the expanded out-of-conference records for all 11 D-1A conferences in the 2010 season. Well here it is. Click on the table below to view it full size. I don't know how else to embed a big table in blogger.

So let's take a look at the table and see if we can make any observations.

- First the ground rules. This table shows each conference's record vs. every other conference, plus the conferences record against all of D-1AA (screw this FBS/FCS naming thing). The "Indies" are Army, Navy, and Notre Dame, who make up a fictional 3 team conference. Post conferences, the grand totals show each conference's non-conference record, record vs. D-1A only, and record vs BCS conference teams only (The 6 AQ conferences and Notre Dame). Boxes that are grayed out means the 2 conferences did not play all season.

- The two undefeated conference champions playing in the BCS championship game come from the best (PAC-10 at 10-5) and 3rd best (SEC at 10-6) conferences against BCS opponents from outside the conference. Maybe the BCS got it right after all. Only 1 PAC-10/SEC game was played all year, and it was won by the PAC-10 when Oregon stomped Tennessee.

- In contrast, TCU's Mountain West was 7th out of 12 against the BCS, only going 5-10, finishing behind the Indies and WAC (the MWC also was only 4-8 against the WAC this year, but they are getting the top 4 WAC teams in the next 2 years. If you can't beat them, join them), but the MWC did better against the BCS than BCS conferences ACC and Big East

- The Big East was only 3-12 against BCS teams. Awful

- Despite going 10-5 against the BCS, the PAC-10 only finished 14-10 vs. D-1A, so that means they were only 4-5 against C-USA, MAC, WAC, and MWC (they didn't play the Sun Belt)

- Thanks largely to 19 total games vs. the Sun Belt and D-1AA, the SEC finished the season with the best record vs. D-1A and total non-conference. They victimized the Sun Belt a perfect 8 times and went 10-1 against D-1AA.

- The only conference to beat up on D-1AA more than the SEC was the ACC, who went 12-1 against them. That helped get them an impressive 30-18 non-conference record, but they were only 18-17 against D-1A and 6-13 against the BCS.

- The MAC mostly exists to get big paydays for playing at Big Ten teams early in the season, so not surprisingly this was the most common conference vs. conference matchup in 2010, with the Big Ten winning 11 of 13 games. The above mentioned MWC vs. WAC was 2nd with 12 games.

- D-1AA teams managed to beat D-1A teams 7 times this season in 90 games played. Not bad for them. The only conference to lose more than once to a D-1AA team was the MAC. D-1AA managed to get 1 win over 4 of the 6 BCS conferences.

- I think everyone will admit that the WAC and MWC are downright competitive, and college football (at least until things get shaken up) really have 8 "power" conferences, with the Big East probably being the worst of those 8. However 3 conferences actually were worse than the Big East this year.....

- C-USA was a somewhat respectable 14-28 against the rest of D-1A this year, and were 5-22 against the BCS, which is pretty much expected for a lower level conference. They have to be pretty proud of Tulsa's win over Notre Dame, though.

- The MAC was a downright awful 7-35 against D-1A and 3-25 against the BCS. (Toledo over Purdue, Northern Illinois over Minnesota, Temple over Big East Champion UCONN)

- The Sun Belt being in D-1A is pretty much a joke. They went 0-26 this year against the BCS (including 8 losses to the SEC, who would miss them if they moved down) and were only 2-32 vs. all of D-1A (Troy over Bowling Green and FAU over UAB). Surprisingly, they only decided to play D-1AA twice, and won both of those games.

- I think that sums it up. Check out the table and feel free to put your conclusions in the comments.

The issue with payed college athletes

For the past couple of years, really since the advent of the blogger era, one of the common themes from bloggers is that college athletes should be paid. The two sports that they point to, basketball and especially football, make a lot of money for colleges across the country, and there is a growing segment of the population that is lobbying for athletes to be paid.
Let's run down the traditional arguments against a paid college athlete: It defeats the purpose of amateurism. College athletes ARE paid, with scholarships other students would love to have, as well as the showcase for their future profession, should they go into professional sports, or even the name recognition that will open doors for them in the short term. The money from these proceeds go back into the school and their athletic funds, not some wealthy business owner.
But still, those arguments aren't enough, and the proponents of additional salary for college athletes continue to plead their case. Colleges make so much money off of football that the athletes deserve a piece of the pie. This would be a more legitimate argument if this was the case across the board.
In an era where people complain about Boise State and TCU not getting a chance, what do you think would happen when the SEC or Big Ten could start paying their students off their profits? It would ruin competitive balance, as Boise and TCU and all other schools fail to match larger conference payrolls. The reason that we need to hold off on paying athletes, aside from the reasons I illustrated two paragraphs ago, is that in order to keep things fair for all 120 teams in FBS, or the 300+ teams in Division 1 college basketball, you can't pay the top athletes, because not every school would be able to do so.

Some fun college football thoughts

Ever since Steve and I set up the college football simulation a few years ago, I always take in the NCAA game with the 12 10 team divisions in mind. Now that we are a few seasons in, and several of the same teams are getting into the season ending tournament year after year, a year like this gives a little perspective on how the landscape of the game is changing. If the simulation shakes out such that the highest ranked teams actually do top the divisions, the 12 postseason teams would be thus:

Alabama
Ohio State
Boise State
TCU
Nebraska
Florida
Stanford
Wisconsin
Penn State
North Carolina State
West Virginia
Air Force

I think the most stunning inclusions have to be NC State and Air Force, right? Though it would be pretty interesting to have this tournament without USC for the first time since it's inception.

At least it's NFL Season

I'm a fan of two teams in the college game, the Purdue Boilermakers, my alma mater, and the Minnesota Golden Gophers, the home town team. The season's second week was played, mostly in full, yesterday, and I can already tell this isn't going to be a good year for football.
Both the Gophers and Boilermakers played FCS (lower level) teams this week, the Gophers against South Dakota and the Boilermakers against Western Illinois. Minnesota lost to South Dakota 41-38, and Purdue narrowly edged the Leathernecks of Western Illinois, 31-21.
The Gophers couldn't stop South Dakota at all on defense and ended up allowing 41 points. Imagine what will happen when they have to face a real opponent, like USC, Ohio State or Wisconsin or... hell even Northwestern.
Purdue won, so that means they are a little bit better than Minnesota, I guess, though they struggled. Not only that, they fought injury the whole game, including a devastating injury to their top receiver, Keith Smith, though that was in the 4th quarter when the game shouldh ave been in hand. And by "in hand" I mean, Smith shouldn't have even been on the field, because the second team should have been babysitting a 40 point lead. But alas, this was not the case, and both of my college teams are woebegone, and I am looking forwards instead to the NFL team. At least it appears the Colts have locked up their run defense.
Oh dammit.

Believe it or not, College football is a mere 7 weeks away

With Minnesota and Purdue projected to linger at the bottom of the Big Ten for this season, and if expansion continues, perhaps for the rest of history or until both are deported to Conference USA because they aren't profitable, and a 32 team national super conference is the wave of the future
Where was I? Oh right. With the two teams that typically receive my support dropped towards irrelevance, It's hard to look forward to the season without thinking of the game I will try to attend as part of my random road trip adventure. For those that don't remember, it will be November 6th and will feature Colorado State playing in San Diego against the SDSU Aztecs.
Both teams were awful last year, with the Aztecs winning two conference games and the Rams going winless. That said, it's still college football, it's still a road trip, and it's still going to be awesome. I can't imagine how delirious with road trippin' excitement I will be by the end of October. Heck, it's still mid July and I'm already thinking about a game between mediocre teams at the tail end of their seasons.
But hey, Robert Marve might be good for Purdue.

Big Ten expansion from the perspective of this Purdue fan

Here were the two things that I was most concerned with as it came down to what appears to be a now inevitable realignment of the conferences in college athletics.
First, I was worried that Purdue fans' interests would not be met. Expansion is great for the big teams of the conference, the Michigans and Ohio States of the world, because they are contenders every year, and their schedule got tougher and more exciting if they suddenly add a school like Nebraska every once in a while. Additionally, they are near each other geographically, so any divisional split, they are going to stay together and continue playing each other every year. Purdue is, admittedly, an also ran. They have had one really good run in the past 50 years, and were awful before that and aren't very good now. They needed things to break right to be at the top of the conference before, and with more elite programs possibly joining the fold, that will be much more difficult to do. The only thing that we will have going for us will be our annual game against Indiana. Of course, if the expansion is heavy on the east side of the conference, especially, say two from the Big East and Notre Dame, plus Nebraska and Missouri, then the conference will almost certainly be split through Indiana, putting Purdue in the west, and Indiana in the east, or vice versa. If this happens, we will have a non competitive team playing against teams we could care less about. It would be disheartening.
The other thing I worry about is the stability of the NCAA. There was speculation that a rise in "super conferences" would spell doom for the NCAA, as the components would be more powerful than the whole. This would be a possibility if the schools in the power conferences didn't want to share their post season earnings with the smaller schools as they do now. I like small college games, because I can enjoy the game for it's own sake, and anything they accomplishment, like a trip to the Liberty Bowl or something, is enjoyed by the student body. More than that, I wondered and worried what the change in conference alignment might mean for the NCAA basketball tournament. I like college basketball much more than football, believe it or not, and I would hate for the best sporting championship in the States to be destroyed because of a completely different sport.
As luck would have it, things have been developing so it's more palatable for Purdue. If Nebraska is the choice at the exclusion of all other teams, then the divisions will line up so that Indiana and Purdue, the only conference football rival either truly cares about, will remain in the same division. Additionally, the Pac 10 sounds like their merger would almost be an association than anything. They want two BCS berths in lieu of a championship game, so its almost as though the deal is only for TV (and for Arizona to play Texas or some such). As a result, it's the original Pac 8 and the new 8. If they divide their power, then perhaps the NCAA will be saved.
Here's hoping.