Sunday, January 01, 2012

Steve's 2011 College Football Sim


Happy New Year! Unlike 2 years ago, when I didn't manage to post the the results of my college football blowup sim until late February, or last year, where I posted on January 23, 13 days after the end of the actual season, I actually finished my college football simulation while bowls were still being played, on December 27. Believe it or not, I even finished my sim before Ryan! His post is coming soon. Here is a link to Ryan's results from last year. I'll take the liberty of letting you follow the link to his post where he links to the origin of the college football reorganization that we came up with and how our sim is structured. Here are some fun facts from my sim this year, then I'll get into the conference breakdowns:

- There seemed to be a lot more parity and crazy upsets this year.
- Only 3 of my conference champs went 9-0 in conference, while 7 were 8-1 and 2 were 7-2. Last year 7 went 9-0. Tiebreakers were needed in 3 conferences. Two were decided by the head to head winner and the other was decided by overall record (Midwest)
- Only 2 conferences saw the conference champ win by more than 1 game (Florida by 2 over Miami, Florida State, and UCF in Florida and Alabama by 3 over Georgia Tech and Georgia in Dixie)
- My strongest conference was the Gulf Coast, who went 65-55 overall.
- The worst conference was the Mountain West, who went 53-67.
- 3 of my 12 playoff teams from last year returned: Alabama, Boise State, and Michigan State
- Only 2 of the real-life 10 BCS teams made my tournament: Alabama and West Virginia, but 3 of them finished 2nd in their conference. Michigan was only 6-6 and Clemson was only 7-5 (but they started 6-0)
- 3 of last year's conference champs fell hard this year: Hawaii (2-10), Pittsburgh (4-8), and Air Force (4-8)
- There weren't any huge turnaround stories from conference champs this year. The closest were Houston and USC, who were only 6-6 last year. Syracuse was 8-4 (6-3) last year and this year that same overall record (with 1 more conference win) was enough for them to win New England
- 3 BCS schools finished dead last in their conference (Minnesota and Nebraska from the Big Ten and UCLA from the Pac-12)
- 4 of my conference champions are switching their real life conference in 2012 (Houston from C-USA to Big East, Boise State from Mountain West to Big East, West Virginia from Big East to Big 12, and Syracuse from Big East to ACC)
- The SEC had 3 teams represent them in the tournament (Alabama, Florida, Tennessee) and the ACC got shut out
- If you use next year's alignments, the SEC and Big 12 (Oklahoma, Texas Tech, West Virginia) would each have 3 teams, the Big East would still have 2 but totally different representatives (West Virginia and Syracuse changing to Houston and Boise State), the ACC would actually have a team (Syracuse), and the Mountain West/Conference USA planned conglomerate would be shut out
- I only had 2 12-0 teams overall: Florida and Alabama
- I did not have a single 0-12 team, but I had 2 1-11 teams: North Texas and UCLA. North Texas got their only win over Army in what was the first game of the 731 from my entire sim.

Here are the results, conference by conference by conference.

New England - Champion: Syracuse
This was a crazy conference this year. Syracuse opened the non-conference schedule by getting absolutely crushed by Texas A&M and UTEP and lost their first conference game to UConn, which made them 1-3. Meanwhile, defending champs Temple started 8-0 and were looking unstoppable. Temple lost 3 in a row to Boston College, Syracuse, and Maryland and all of the sudden Syracuse was in 1st place. Syracuse celebrated that by getting destroyed by Penn State. Five teams had a shot to win the conference going into the last week and Temple even got a nice win at Penn State to set themselves up, but Syracuse got the job done against Maryland to win the conference
Order of finish: Syracuse, Temple, UConn, Penn State, Boston College, Buffalo, Army, Maryland, Rutgers, Navy

Appalachian - Champion: West Virginia
The Mountaineers took this conference by going 8-1 and 10-2 overall, losing only to Cincinnati in the final conference game (they had already clinched at that point) and to Miami (FL) in non-conference play. They made short work of Virginia Tech in a showdown game with them, but Virginia Tech also had slips against Louisville and Purdue in non-conference play. Ohio had an impressive 8-4 record
Order of Finish: West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Ohio, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Marshall, Virginia, Kentucky, Miami (OH)

Great Lakes - Champion: Michigan State
Unlike last year when they went 12-0, the Spartans took their lumps in non-conference play, going 0-3 against North Carolina, Boise State, and Alabama. They turned around and ran the table in this very weak conference, where their only real competition was Toledo (who went 8-1, but got blow out by Michigan State). Ohio State was terrible. They only went 4-8 overall and lost to Toledo 54-6.
Order of Finish: Michigan State, Toledo, Bowling Green, Michigan, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Ohio State, Akron, Kent State

Tobacco Road - Champion: Tennessee
Vanderbilt was initially the story of this conference, starting off with a 9-0 record. As the season went on, it became apparent that a Week 11 showdown between Tennessee and Vanderbilt was looming, and both teams actually lost in Week 10 before playing. Tennessee beat Vandy, and went on to win the conference with a 8-1 (10-2) record. It should be noted how horrible Memphis could be at times. The ended up going 3-9 but they were shut out 4 times and also lost the biggest blowout of the season, a 75-3 beating from Tennessee
Order of Finish: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke, Western Kentucky, East Carolina, NC State, Memphis, Middle Tennessee

Midwest - Champion: Iowa
This is another conference where it became apparent early on that Iowa and Wisconsin would have a showdown with the winner likely winning the conference. The only difference was Iowa went 3-0 against a relatively tricky non-conference schedule while Wisconsin suffered blowout losses to Florida State and Oklahoma State. When they met in Week 11, Wisconsin picked up the easy win. However, in the final game of the season, Wisconsin got stunned by Notre Dame and Iowa won, putting them both at 8-1 conference record, and since Iowa was 11-1 and Wisconsin was 9-3, Iowa got to go to the tournament. Purdue had a promising start, shockingly winning that game at Virginia Tech that I warned about last year, but they only ended up finishing 5-7, losing to Ball State and Northern Illinois along the way. Minnesota was awful, going 2-10, but somehow they beat Notre Dame in their only conference win.
Order of Finish: Iowa, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Ball State, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northern Illinois, Minnesota

Florida - Champion: Florida
Florida, who were only 6-6 in real life, ran the table in this conference and had a perfect 12-0 season. They had their fair share of close wins along the way, never really looking like a dominant team. However, whatifsports always picked them to win in the end.
Order of Finish: Florida, Miami (FL), Florida State, UCF, Southern Miss, Florida International, South Florida, Troy, Tulane, Florida Atlantic

Great Plains - Champion: Oklahoma
This was a very interesting conference. Defending National Champs Oklahoma State started the season 5-0 absolutely running up scores on teams, while Oklahoma lost to Florida in non-conference play and Arkansas lost their conference opener to Tulsa. Then, Oklahoma State got upset by Iowa State and started putting up smaller scores each week. Oklahoma continued to win until getting beat by Arkansas in Week 10, who already had 2 conference losses at that point. That set up a virtual elimination game in Week 11 between Arkansas and Oklahoma State, with the winner being able to win the conference title with an Oklahoma State win over Oklahoma in Week 12. Arkansas ended up winning the game and were in position to steal the conference title, but Oklahoma ended up beating Oklahoma State 59-55 in a crazy 2 OT shootout. On a side note, Nebraska somehow went 2-10 overall, losing to Arkansas State at home and blowing a 20+ point 4th quarter lead to Tulsa. I think Bo Pelini got fired in the simulation world.
Order of Finish: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Tulsa, Kansas, Arkansas State, Kansas State, Nebraska

Dixie - Champion: Alabama
Yawn. Yet another boring 12-0 finish for Alabama. Clemson started 6-0 until losing 41-13 to the Tide, and only finished 7-5 overall. Georgia Tech finished 2nd with only a 6-3 conference record.
Order of Finish: Alabama, Georgia Tech, Georgia, Mississippi State, Clemson, Auburn, UAB, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Louisiana-Monroe

Gulf Coast - Champion: Houston
This was yet another crazy conference, where 6 teams were in the hunt for most of the season. Houston lost big at Texas early, but then turned it around and won at LSU the following week. LSU got beat by Louisiana-Lafayette in what may be the biggest upset ever in my sim. LSU also lost to SMU and Stanford in non-conference play. SMU was extremely good, finishing 10-2 overall and actually had a shot to win the conference if Houston had lost in the final week because Houston lost a crazy 5 OT shootout to Baylor in non-conference play, 64-62.
Order of Finish: Houston, SMU, LSU, TCU, Texas A&M, Texas, Louisiana Tech, Rice, Louisiana-Lafayette, North Texas

Mountain West - Champion: Texas Tech
Just like last year, this conference was just awful again. Texas Tech, Baylor, and BYU ended up finishing 7-2 in conference but BYU only finished 7-5 overall, eliminating them from the tiebreaker with the other 2 teams, who finished 8-4. Texas Tech beat Baylor in the final week of the season to win the conference.
Order of Finish: Texas Tech, Baylor, BYU, Colorado, Wyoming, Colorado State, UTEP, Air Force, New Mexico State, New Mexico

Great Basin - Champion: Boise State
Just like last year and seemingly every year, this conference came down to one game, Boise State at Oregon, which Boise won 37-20. However, unlike last year, both teams were not undefeated in conference play going into the game. Oregon was 8-0 while Boise slipped up against Nevada in Week 11. Boise State also lost to Alabama, but luckily for them Oregon also had a non-conference loss to 4-8 Ohio State, which allowed the head-to-head tiebreaker to take effect.
Order of Finish: Boise State, Oregon, Washington State, Nevada, Washington, Utah State, Oregon State, Idaho, Utah, UNLV

California - Champion: USC
Since we aren't the NCAA, USC has no sanctions and was allowed to participate in the tournament. They pretty much dominated the conference play but surprisingly lost to Fresno State on the road the week before beating Arizona to clinch the conference title. Not much else to say about this conference other than Fresno State and Arizona did surprisingly well, while UCLA was bad this year, but probably not 1-11 bad. Defending conference champ Hawaii was only 2-10.
Order of Finish: USC, Arizona, Stanford, Fresno State, California, San Diego State, San Jose State, Arizona State, Hawaii, UCLA

Well the tournament is set here are the results:
First Round
#8 Oklahoma vs. #9 Tennessee - Tennessee wins 19-13 - The playoffs kicked off with a scoreless first quarter. Each team traded field goals and Oklahoma took a 10-3 lead into the half. The game entered the 4th quarter tied at 13 but Derrick Brodus tacked on 2 more field goals for the Vols to give them the win. Landry Jones had a disappointing game for the Sooners, throwing 3 INTs
#5 Houston vs. #12 Texas Tech - Houston wins 41-3 - Good old fashioned Texas shootout here. The teams traded TDs until Tech kicked a field goal to be down 27-24 in the 3rd Quarter. Houston took a 34-24 lead into the 4th but Texas Tech responded with 2 TDs to take a 38-34 lead with 2:29 to go. However, the Cougars have Case Keenum, who successfully led Houston on a game winning TD drive, capped off with a Michael Hayes rushing TD with 13 seconds left. Keenum threw for 365 yards and 2 TDs
#6 Boise State vs. #11 Syracuse - Boise State wins 52-17 - Not surprisingly, this game was all Boise. The Orange came out early and punched the giants in the mouth, holding a 10-0 lead half way through the 2nd quarter. The Broncos responded by scoring 52 unanswered points which included 2 punt return TDs before Syracuse got a garbage time TD in the 4th. Doug Martin from Boise ran for 85 yards and 2 TDs.
#7 West Virginia vs. #10 Michigan State - Michigan State wins 30-23 - Another game with a slow first half, the Mountaineers took a 10-3 lead into the 2nd half. In the 2nd half, Kirk Cousins got the offense going and Michigan State took a 13-10 lead before West Virginia tied it going into the 4th. That's when things got exciting. Michigan State took a 23-13 lead with only 6 minutes to go after an Edwin Baker TD. West Virginia fought back and tied it with 1:56 to go. Cousins then led the Spartans on a game winning TD drive, connecting with Edwin Baker with 53 seconds to go.

Quarter Finals
#1 Alabama vs. #9 Tennessee - Alabama wins 67-16 - Alabama was just awesome here. After an opening FG by the Vols, the Tide answered with 24 points (3 Trent Richardson TDs). Tennessee finally scored a TD to make it 24-10, and Alabama again responded with 3 TDs to take a 40-10 lead early in the 3rd. Not to be outdone, Trent Richardson scored 2 more TDs. In total, Richardson ran for 235 yards and 5 TD, and AJ McCarron had 424 yards passing and 2 TDs
#4 Iowa vs. #5 Houston - Houston wins 44-27 - The cougars came out strong, taking an early 21-0 lead with 3 Case Keenum TD passes. From that point Iowa was trying to play catchup all day but only got within 11 points. Keenum threw for 312 yards and 4 TDs. In a losing effort, Iowa's Marcus Coker ran for 134 yards.
#3 USC vs. #6 Boise State - Boise State wins 45-41 - The Broncos came out on top of a great passing showdown between Kellen Moore and Matt Barkley. Boise took a 10-3 lead into the 2nd. USC bounced back with 3 TDs (2 of them long Curtis McNeal TD runs) in the 2nd to take a 24-17 lead going into the half. In the 3rd, USC increased their lead to 34-24. In the 4th, Kellen Moore came alive, throwing 2 quick TDs to put Boise ahead 38-34. USC responded with yet another McNeal TD run to take a 41-38 lead. Boise capped off the game with another Moore TD pass to DJ Harper. The Broncos D was able to get a turnover on downs in their own territory to hold the lead and get the win. Moore had 314 yards and 5 TDs. Barkley had 316 yards and 2 TDs. McNeal ran for 192 yards and had 3 TDs.
#2 Florida vs. #10 Michigan State - Florida wins 24-14 - The Florida D kept Kirk Cousins in check, and John Brantley managed to throw for 337 yards and 3 TDs. Cousins was only able to lead the Spartans on 1 scoring drive, because the other Michigan State TD was a punt return.

Semi-Finals
#1 Alabama vs. #5 Houston - Alabama wins 28-23 - Just like in the previous round, Trent Richardson was out of control. He ran for 139 yards and 2 TDs and had a receiving TD. Houston kept it close though. They actually took a 16-14 lead into the 4th quarter, but the Tide quickly scored 2 TDs to go up 28-16. Keenum managed to score another TD to make it 28-23 and Houston even got the ball back with 1:33 to go, but their final drive came up short on a hail mary in the endzone, putting Alabama in the championship game.
#2 Florida vs. #6 Boise State - Florida wins 31-29 - This was another exciting back and forth game. Florida started with a 14-7 lead but Boise answered with a Doug Martin TD. After the TD, they missed the extra point, leaving Florida ahead 14-13. Both teams scored TDs and FGs to leave Florida ahead 24-23. With 5:20 to go, Jeff Demps caught a TD from Brantley to put Florida up by 8 (thanks to the missed extra point). Boise responded with a Tyler Shoemaker TD with 2:29 to go, but their 2 point conversion attempt failed. The missed extra point cost Boise the game. There was a lot of offense in this game. Moore threw for 371 yards and Brantley for 335. Florida also ran the ball well. Chris Rainey had 141 yards and Jeff Demps had 104 yards 2 TDs, and a recieving TD.

The Championship Game
#1 Alabama vs. #2 Florida - Florida wins 37-13 - The semi-finals set up an interesting #1 vs. #2 national championship between the only 2 undefeated teams. As far as the result goes, wow. The Gators, who were only 6-6 in real life this year, are the national champs of my sim. This game was no contest. After an early Trent Richardson TD, the Gators answered with 37 unanswered points led by the unstoppable rushing attack of Chris Rainey (130 yards, TD) and Jeff Demps (110 yards, 2 TDs). John Brantley also threw for 380 yards and a TD. From our past experience, for some odd reason usually teams that do well in our sim end up being national title contenders the folowing year (like Oklahoma State, who won my sim last year) so maybe the Gators will be back in the national title picture next year.


So, just like last year, these sims are time consuming, but a lot of fun! I'm looking forward to doing this again next year. Go put some money on the Gators to make a BCS bowl.

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Sunday, January 10, 2010

Meet your new National Champions: The college football simulation

Well, here it is. My college football simulation and the results. Please look to yesterday's post to get all the details. now, let's take a look at some interesting trends I noticed, then we'll go conference by conference and look at the results. One thing I should note is that the title game (our made up version) is actually at the Superdome this year, not that it's particularly relevant. Anyways, some trends.
- Every conference had a 9-0 in-conference team, making conference tie breakers unnecessary. That was nice.
- The "Dixie" conference was the strongest this year, as they were last year.
- The Great Lakes and Mountain West were tied for the bottom spot.
- 5 BCS teams didn't even make the tournament, including Georgia Tech, who finished 9th in their conference. The ones who made it? Ohio State, Florida, Alabama, Texas, Boise State.
- Speaking of surprisingly poor teams, Florida State, Illinois, Maryland and Iowa State all finished last in their respective conferences.
- There were 5 undefeated teams overall, Penn State, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Alabama and Texas.
- There were 3 winless teams overall, Miami (OH), Florida State (!) and Washington State.

That said, let's take a look at the results!

New England: 2009 Champion - Penn State
2010 - Penn State. The Nittany Lions were the first to claim their conference this season as a group behind them struggled to 5-4 records in conference. Penn State became the #2 seed. Due to tiebreakers, a couple of surprises, Temple and Syracuse, ended up 2nd and 3rd.
Order of finish: Penn State, Temple, Syracuse, Boston College, Rutgers, Connecticut, Army, Buffalo, Navy, Maryland.

Appalachian: 2009 Champion - West Virginia
2010 - Virginia Tech. The Hokies won the conference for the 2nd time in 3 years in what was a very top heavy conference. They defeated both West Virginia and Cincinnati (who also lost to Pitt) to win. 2 out of conference losses to Rutgers and North Carolina State knocked Virginia Tech down a peg, and they were the 10 seed. Just like every year, Pitt finished 4th.
Order of finish: Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Ohio, Kentucky, Virginia, Louisville, Marshall, Miami (OH).

Great Lakes - 2009 Champion - Ohio State
2010 - Ohio State. The Buckeyes have yet to be challenged in this conference. For the first time, however, someone other than Western Michigan earned 2nd. That team was Michigan State. Perhaps someone other than Ohio State will win it sometime. Come on, Bowling Green! The Buckeyes were the 11th seed, owing to a 10-2 record and an abysmal conference.
Order of finish: Ohio State, Michigan State, Central Michigan, Kent State, Michigan, Bowling Green, Akron, Toledo, Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan.

Tobacco Road - 2009 Champion - Tennessee
2010 - North Carolina. This is usually the most confusing conference to sort out, but this year, thanks to the Tar Heels ability to win out in their conference, and the general parity in the rest of the conference, they were able to win by 2 games. A loss at Michigan State to open the season meant they were knocked down to the 6 seed.
Order of finish: North Carolina, Middle Tennessee State, Tennessee, East Carolina, North Carolina State, Memphis, Duke, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Western Kentucky.

Midwest - 2009 Champion - Iowa
2010 - Wisconsin. Last year, Iowa won the conference, surprising many. This year in the real world, the Hawkeyes were incredible, even winning a BCS game. Could the same thing happen for the Badgers next year? They went undefeated for the season, but due to a shoddy conference had to play in the first round as the 5th seed. Notre Dame continues to hilariously struggle.
Order of finish: Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern, Northern Illinois, Notre Dame, Indiana, Purdue, Ball State, Illinois

Florida - 2009 Champion - Florida
2010 - Florida. The Gators have won their namesake conference every year that we have had the simulation, one of three teams to do this (Ohio State and a team still to come are the others). This year they had legitimate competition, however, as they beat Miami to give them their only loss on the year. Florida lost a non-conference game to Alabama and were knocked down to the 7 seed. Somehow,
Order of finish: Florida, Miami (FL), Central Florida, Southern Miss, South Florida, Tulane, Troy, Florida International, Florida Atlantic, Florida State.

Great Plains - 2009 Champion - Missouri
2010 - Oklahoma. The Sooners were the beneficiary of a key home game against what might have been the actual best team in conference, just like they were on the wrong end of that last year. They handled Nebraska easily at home, and despite not having Sam Bradford, were able to win the conference easily. Other than Nebraska, the other teams played surprisingly weak. The Sooners were the 3 seed in the tournament.
Order of finish - Oklahoma, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Arkansas State, Kansas State, Arkansas, Kansas, Tulsa, Iowa State

Dixie - 2009 Champion - Alabama
2010 - Alabama. The strongest conference last year was the strongest again this year. Alabama was never really challenged during the conference schedule, which just served to show how strong the Crimson Tide was. There was a lot of infighting, and Georgia ended up 2 games back, but 2 games ahead of the next team, Mississippi. They ended up the #1 seed.
Order of finish: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Clemson, South Carolina, Auburn, Mississippi State, Louisiana -Monroe, Georgia Tech, UAB

Gulf Coast - 2009 Champion - TCU
2010 - Texas. Texas always seems to have a problem with a random team, usually Louisiana Tech for some reason. Not this season. They even won at TCU to make it clear they were the best team in conference. Well, as much as a 9-6 game can be clear. But those two teams were the class of the conference. Some day LSU will be competetive here.
Order of finish: Texas, TCU, LSU, Louisiana Tech, SMU, Houston, Louisiana - Lafayette, Texas A&M, North Texas, Rice

Mountain West - 2009 Champion - BYU
2010 - Texas Tech. The Red Raiders missed out last year when they probably had their best team in the schools history. Somehow, this year, they won on the road at BYU and ended up taking the conference. The Mountain West continues to be a weak conference and is yet to put anyone in the tournament who isn't the 12 seed, which Texas Tech was again.
Order of finish: Texas Tech, BYU, Air Force, Colorado, Baylor, Colorado State, Wyoming, New Mexico, UTEP, New Mexico State

Great Basin - 2009 Champion- Boise State
2010 - Boise State. The Broncos struggled out of the gate, with losses to TCU and BYU, but ended up besting a stable of good teams who ended up beating each other to the point that the closest team, Oregon State, was two games back. Interestingly, Oregon went 0-2 against teams from Idaho, which not many BCS teams could ever say. Boise State was the 8th seed.
Order of finish: Boise State, Oregon State, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Idaho, Utah State, Washington, UNLV, Washington State

California - 2009 Champion - USC
2010 - USC. USC has won this conference every year we have done the simulation. They went 8-4 this year in the real world, but had a generous schedule in the simulation and a rather weak conference allowed them to make their way back to the tournament. Last year's 1 seed ended up being the 9 seed this year, however, thanks to non conference losss to Boise State and TCU.
Order of finish: USC. Stanford, California, Fresno State, San Diego State, Arizona, UCLA, Arizona State, San Jose State, Hawaii

This has certinaly taken a lot longer to write than I expected. Just a little bit more! Hopefully you are still reading. Lets take a look at the games:
Peach Bowl - #8 Boise State beats #9 USC 32-30 on a last second field goal. Jeremy Avery ended up with 2 TDs and 122 yards writing.
Gator Bowl - #5 Wisconsin over #12 Texas Tech 24-17. Another close game but John Clay ran all over the Red Raiders for 183 yards.
Citrus Bowl - #11 Ohio State tops #6 North Carolina in what is technically an upset. Brandon Saine led the well in a stout ground attack.
Liberty Bowl - #7 Florida narrowly escaped #10 Virginia Tech 27-24. The Hokies missed a last second field goal to send it to overtime. Ryan Williams still rushed for more than 200 yards in a losing effort.

On to the quarterfinals....
Orange Bowl - #1 seed Alabama left no doubt, destroying Boise State 36-14. Mark Ingram had 201 yards and three TDs.
Cotton Bowl - Essentially a home game for the #4 Texas Longhorns, they played like it, nipping Wisconsin 27-10. Jordan Shipley caught 2 touchdowns.
Sun Bowl - Ohio State and their committee based ground game continued their run, topping #3 Oklahoma 28-14.
Fiesta Bowl - A rematch of last years semifinal, Florida avenged their loss, winning 19-10 over #2 Penn State.

The Final four!
Rose Bowl - Alabama and Mark Ingram made like the real National Championship, winning 31-13 over Texas to secure a trip to the National Championship.
Sugar Bowl - Ohio State and Florida is another rematch of a real life title game. It played out similarly, with the Gators winning easily, 27-7.

And in the national championship, it was a rematch of this years real life SEC Championship. It was the same score as the Sugar Bowl as well. Despite only 17 yards passing, Tim Tebow got his vindication, winning 27-7 for the Victoria Times National Championship.
Next year, we have the new pods, new conferences that everyone will play. Those pods: Dixie-Great Basin - Appalachian and Great Lakes in pod one, New England, Florida, Gulf Coast and Midwest in pod 2 and Tobacco Road, California Great Plains and Mountain West in pod 3. It was a lot of work, and would be a lot easier if this was just instituted already. So what did I learn?
- Schedules are very important to a teams' result. Not just who they play, but WHERE they play.
- There are so many teams in Division 1 that we will never be able to get all of the best teams in a tournament. On the other hand, every game can still be important.
- While I agree a tournament would be fun, I would hate to see anything that didn't follow this blueprint.

I hope you enjoyed this stunningly long post. If you want to know more about your team and what happened, or who they play next year, let me know and I'll fill you in!

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Saturday, December 06, 2008

Why Not Virginia Tech/Cincinnati For the National Title?

Ok, ok hear me out. Virginia Tech and Cincinnati seem bound for a very low-rated Orange Bowl showdown in a few weeks. I was talking with Ryan about how these 2 teams floated to top of the pile of crap that was the ACC and Big East this season, or so I thought. This college football season has been all about the Big 3 in the Big 12, Alabama, Florida, USC, Penn State, and even Utah, while the Big East and ACC teams all have at least 2 losses and are pretty far down on the BCS standings. Just to try to prove my point about the 2 conferences, I took a look at the 2 conferences' records versus non-conference BCS teams (and Notre Dame, since they are capable of an automatic bid as well), expecting them both to be pretty bad. Well it turns out they are the only 2 conferences that have winning records against non-conference BCS teams.

The ACC had a ton of parity this year, and in a sport where 1 loss could put you out of the title hunt, it was seen as mediocrity. The ACC actually played the most aggressive non-conference schedule of anyone, playing 23 games against BCS opponents and finishing an impressive 15-8. The national title game is going to be SEC Champ Florida vs. Big 12 Champ Oklahoma, but the ACC was 6-4 vs. the SEC and a perfect 4-0 vs. the Big 12. Granted, Florida beat 2 ACC teams and none of the big 3 played an ACC team, but that's still pretty impressive. Conference Champ Virginia Tech beat a Big 12 team, Nebraska, on the road in their only game against a BCS team.

The Big East was 9-7, thanks to 2 wins over Notre Dame. They also played pretty respectably against the Big 12 and SEC, finishing 3-2 and 1-1, respectively. Conference Champ Cincinnati's adventure against a Big 12 team, at Oklahoma, didn't go so well....A 52-26 loss.

The other conferences had narrow losing records, with the Big 12 finishing 7-8, Big Ten 6-7, Pac-10 6-8, and what everyone seems to think is the toughest conference, the SEC, finishing 6-9. Outside of Florida, the ACC had their way with the SEC this year which led to that poor record. Some other things to note is the Big Ten didn't play the SEC and the Big East didn't play the PAC-10. USC was 3-0 against non-conference BCS teams, which makes the Pac-10 only 3-8 without them (and I was at one of those wins, when Purdue choked away a game to Oregon). The 2 atrocious Washington schools didn't help the Pac-10 out very much. I'll paste the complete grid below (clicking on it enlarges it if its hard to see).

So, it seems like Florida and Oklahoma are the 2 best teams in the country, and should be playing for the national title. Even though their conferences didn't do as well against BCS teams as the ACC and Big East, they took care of business against those conferences with Florida getting those 2 wins over the ACC and Oklahoma beating Big East Champ Cincinnati soundly (and Washington....big surprise?). But could you imagine if the national title game was chosen by having the champions of the 2 "strongest" conferences based on record outside of their conference play each other? Maybe the BCS and the polls aren't such a bad thing after all.

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Wednesday, January 05, 2005

The BCS Mess and Lil’ John…A Taste of Things to Come

Originally posted on "Is It Sports?" This is where it all began, our first Is It Sports? post, written by both Ryan and Steve.

Ryan: heres a question for you... if we have so many bowls, cant we eliminate the motor city bowl and have the top mac team play the top wac team instead of them playing 6th or 7th teams in crappy bowls?
Steve: yeah might as well
Steve: I never understood the MAC champ vs. Big Ten #7 thing
Steve: going to a bowl game in Boise would suck too
Ryan: exactly
Ryan: especialy if you are say, boise
Ryan: the only playoff i would endorse is one that features just the conference champions
Steve: like all 11?
Ryan: yeah... works for the big ten
Steve: that would be interesting
Ryan: 10 games and 18 bowls
Ryan: because you cant eliminate bowls
Steve: where would the tournament games be played?
Ryan: and the 4-5 game is always the rose bowl, pac 10 vs big ten
Ryan: same sites as the top 10 bowls
Steve: so who would get the byes then?
Ryan: top three non big ten pac ten teams according to the bcs
Steve: so that would always be the ACC, SEC, and Big 12 champs probably
Ryan: more than likely
Ryan: unless a utah slips in there
Steve: so this year it would have been...
Steve: 1. Oklahoma
Steve: 2. Auburn
Steve: 3. Utah
Steve: 4. USC
Steve: 5. Michigan
Steve: 6. Virginia Tech
Steve: ...or Louisville or Boise State?
Ryan: just go with espn polls for ease
Ryan: louisville va tech boise
Steve: ok so that makes Pitt 9
Steve: and Toledo 10
Steve: and North Texas 11
Steve: so the first round would be Louisville vs. North Texas
Ryan: so, Louisville N Texas
Ryan: va tech toledo
Ryan: boise pitt which would be huge
Steve: I thing Boise would definitely take them
Ryan: yeah, but it would still be a big game
Steve: show how much the Big East sucks
Ryan: then assuming the seeds, ok and boise, auburn and va tech, utah and louisville
Ryan: all quality games... and as it would play out, you would get to see the national champ play 2 undefeated teams no matter what
Ryan: well, barring upsets
Steve: yeah Utah/Louisville would be interesting
Ryan: it would be a shootout
Steve: yeah
Ryan: but i really dont have a problem with the bcs, to be honest with you... you are ALWAYS going to have problems no matter what
Ryan: wa wa, you left us out of the tournament
Steve: yeah its a 117 team league
Ryan: at least there is finality to this
Steve: Notre Dame would be pissed
Ryan: well, give notre dame tyhe big east playoff berth if the deserve it, or make them join a conference for christ sake... the big ten.. they play half of us anyways
Ryan: but i would really prefer the bowls.. .thats the way its always been, and a playoff truly doesnt accomplish anything
Ryan: bowls celebrate winning programs and i think in college football, a program is more valuable than one team
Ryan: so im glad oklahoma and usc got in and auburn didnt, because usc and oklahoma will be good next year, and auburn wont
Steve: I can't believe how much ass USC kicked
Ryan: especially after tech thumped cal
Steve: I know
Steve: Cal must have been pouting
Ryan: i think "sucking" is the term
Steve: yeah
Steve: I just hope Leinart comes out so he doesn't screw over the Niners
Ryan: the heisman is cursed, you know
Steve: yeah, but I think Ken Dorsey's arm is too
Ryan: yeah... florida... what a quarterback hotbed
Ryan: did you see rex grossman in his 7 snaps this season?
Steve: awesome
Steve: well Dorsey went to Miami
Ryan: last i checked miami is still in florida
Ryan: the only good miami is the one in ohio
Steve: I thought you meant like UF
Ryan: well, you got weinke too... remember him?
Steve: because I was going to bring up Danny Awful
Ryan: jesse palmer
Ryan: the last decent quarterback to come out of that state went to UCF
Steve: Rob Johnson
Steve: yeah Culpepper
Ryan: that is not saying much
Ryan: Marshall has produced two qbs more recently than the entire state of florida
Ryan: and i dont care what you say, pennington is a much better quarterback than culpepper
Ryan: pennington to moss at marshall did something culpepper to moss never did..... win
Steve: yeah thats a point
Steve: I don't dislike Pennington
Ryan: i would rather have pennington and santana moss than culpepper and randy moss
Steve: randy's a headcase
Ryan: yeah.... unrelated... do you read espn magazine? simmons article in that one?
Ryan: its about kobe.... he makes a fleeting reference to wrestling that was pretty funny
Steve: oh yeah I read that one online
Steve: how he should become a bad guy?
Ryan: yeah... i liked the part where he smacked nicholson with the chair
Steve: haha yeah I liked that too
Steve: you should read his pyramid scheme article from 3 years ago
Steve: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/020108a
Ryan: i think we could start posting some of our im conversations online on some sort of website and it would catch on
Steve: haha yeah

And there you have it, the conversation that led to this site. All of these conversations are held on AOL Instant Messenger but we're going to change our screen names to our actual names and color code them for your convenience.

You don’t have to read the entire conversation up there if you don’t want to, but we kicked around some pretty interesting ideas, namely our solutions to the college bowl system and compared Marshall’s ability to produce quality quarterbacks with the entire state of Florida. Marshall won. Decisively.

There are a few other things talked about in that convo, all of them sports related. The thing is though, we aren’t sure how much or little of our time will be spent on sports. Hence “isitsports”. We aren’t sure either. Note the conversation below:

Ryan: ok... given the conversation we had last night, and the abundant time on my hands, i have determined something
Steve: what's that?
Ryan: well, i was thinking today about how intimidating most rappers are, then i realize how unintimidating lil jon is... and then it dawned on me that with the release of "ok" by Nivea, featuring lil john, he only needs to make one more song to complete his career, and at the same time, finish the joke the entire rap industry is playing on him.... but my idea is a song called "what?!" by DMX and Lil Jon
Steve: why would it complete his career?
Ryan: well, all his major phrases have been turned into songs then... yeah, lets go, ok, what
Ryan: what else does he have left?
Steve: haha ok
Steve: nothing much
Steve: you know how PDiddy had that Vote or Die thing?
Ryan: right
Steve: I saw a pic in magazine of Lil John passed out on the floor drunk wearing a shirt that looked just like Diddy's that said Crunk or Die!
Steve: I thought it was hilarious
Ryan: oh lil jon... how we'll miss you when youve completed the circle
Ryan: and after watching a couple hours of music videos, ive realized that nelly is the least intimidating rapper
Steve: he'll be one of those guys that in 10 years people will look back and be like what the hell were we listening to back in 2004?
Steve: yeah Nelly is pretty much crazy
Ryan: well, hes out to make money, not to build his image
Ryan: he is the modern ll cool j
Steve: yeah I guess

The earlier conversation was about one of my new interests, rap feuds. By the way, I’m from suburban Minneapolis; Steve is from south side Chicago.

Other than being ironic in a musical sense, it provides the biggest disconnect between us. Sure he is a Republican and I’m currently in between parties, he’s looking forward to a successful engineering career, and I’m, well, lazy. Needless to say, we are different people. The only thing we consistently disagree on is his insistence that the White Sox don’t suck and the Twins do. I’m sure you, the reader, will hear all about that over the coming however long we feel like writing this. For the time being, however, I’m going to have to say we won’t be putting 4 page IM conversations in our posts. – Ryan

Ryan pretty much summed me up. Like he said, I am from the south side of Chicago but I’m really only a fan of the White Sox, Bulls, and Blackhawks. I’ve always been a Cubbie hater and the Bears…well are just fun to make fun of. My NFL teams are the 49ers (2-14 I know, I know, but you gotta stick with your teams) and Raiders. Since I’m an engineer, just try to bear with my crappy writing skills.

In our conversation about Marshall vs. the state of Florida, I made my first of what might be many mistakes. Brad Johnson, who went to Florida State, is the QB I was thinking about, and even though he won a Super Bowl, I think he probably belongs on that list as well. Rob Johnson went to USC. Yeah, that Rob Johnson. You might remember him as the guy that got beat out for a job by a 56 year-old midget from Canada. The Johnson boys split time with the 2002 Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers, but their biggest contribution to that team was not screwing up…well Rob did, and that’s why Brad was the starter. I’ll never forget Brad’s legendary touchdown pass to himself when he was on the Vikings, and let’s not forget that he’s about to lose his job to an unproven and/or twice failed son of a Super Bowl winning quarterback, and might wind up as the starter on the (gulp) Cardinals. But the moral of the story here is that QB’s from the Big 3 colleges in Florida don’t live up to the hype they receive. I can’t believe I forgot about the best Heisman winner to ever play in the NBA, Charlie Ward. I’m sure there are plenty more where that came from as well. With Chris Rix and Brock Berlin entering the draft this April, NFL teams might want to look, but not touch. - Steve

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