The winner of the Victoria Times NCAA Tournament

As you may remember, because I touched on the topic a couple of days ago, I was planning on running the Victoria Times European Style NCAA basketball tournaments. Well, I did that, and I finished it off last night before I went to bed. I wanted it to be finished before the real thing started today, to see if anything interesting happened. Yes, some interesting stuff happened.
First, the secondary tournament, where I will touch on teams that made surprisingly deep runs. The greatest surprise were the Big Sky teams, Montana and Weber State. After busting out of the Champions tournament to  Saint Mary's in the first round, Montana defeated Indiana and Missouri before falling to Louisville. Weber State, in the Secondary tournament from the outset, defeated Creighton, Colorado State and Marquette, before falling to Georgetown. Of the last 6 teams in the Secondary tournament, only one of them, Louisville, was from a power conference. The other 5 were St. Mary's (who busted out of the primary to Valparaiso), Harvard (lost in the primary to Long Beach State), New Mexico (lost in the primary to Long Island), and Long Beach State, who lost in the Primary championship game to Kentucky. Louisville was the last surviving non regular season champion by a full 4 rounds, just because of the way it all played out.
The Primary, champions tournament was a mess. The final four of that dance was Middle Tennessee State (wins over Akron, Syracuse and Temple), Long Beach State (Davidson, Kansas, Harvard), Kentucky (Savannah State, Belmont, Valparaiso) and Drexel, (New Mexico, Wichita State, North Carolina). Additionally, Valpo beat Memphis and Texas-Arlington topped Ohio State. Just weird stuff, top to bottom in this contest. Kentucky eventually nipped Long Beach State in the championship game, a game that surely everyone plans on seeing in the final four this year.
The champion of the Secondary Tournament was... Long Beach State. They defeated Louisville rather handily (65-55) which meant to get an overall champion, LBSU had to rematch against Kentucky. Kentucky won that game as well, by two points more. Kentucky won by 14 in the first game, and 16 in the second. Too bad this post was so late, otherwise you could have used this post to help you pick Kentucky to win it all.

Talk about the bracket

First off, congratulations, Minnesota, on your bid to the NIT! Good luck against La Salle.

Now, the important thing is... The NCAA Brackets. This year was odd. The NCAA selection committee was much more transparent win their selection process, and the various pundits seemed to have similar teams in the tournament across the board. And then, the brackets came out, and, well... wtf. Iona was the big surprise, making the dance, of course, but then there were others, like Texas, BYU, Memphis as an 8, Harvard as a 12. Colorado as an 11. I mean, you pit Harvard and Colorado against each other, Harvard wins 7/10.  Now, the individual brackets.

SOUTH
Favorite: Kentucky. Obviously as the 1 seed, I like the Wildcats. I think that this is the bracket that smart people will out think themselves and pick a lot of upsets early (South Dakota State vs Baylor, most notably) but the first round, at least, will by and large be chalk. That being said, A lot of the concern with this bracket is that higher seeds AREN'T as strong as their reputation suggests, and could be bumped early. Thus, Kentucky, the only legitimately very strong team in the South will move on, somewhat easily.

Sleeper: UNLV. Baylor and Duke have scuffled a bit lately. UNLV will be a feisty opponent for these teams. I could see them reaching the Elite 8.

Biggest first round upset: Honestly, the biggest upset I see after a quick look at the bracket is Xavier over Notre Dame.

WEST
Favorite: Memphis? This is a nutso bracket. Poorly seeded, strong upset possibilities, and a team that has been blowing away conference opponents in a multi-bid conference by double digits as an 8 seed. So, yes. If there is a shot for an 8 seed to make a deep run, it's certainly Memphis. I can't really get behind anyone else.

Sleeper: Florida. I like Florida, because they have star players. I could see the Gators making a deep run like Memphis, but they simply aren't as good as the Tigers. Another team I could see reaching the Elite 8 by upsetting a 2 seed.

Biggest first round upset: Regardless of what happens, look for big things from Long Beach State. I have them in the Sweet 16, though the first round should behave fairly well.

EAST
Favorite: Ohio State. Playing like a team on a mission right now. I really like OSU if they can have a weekend to get healthy against inferior opponents, I really like their chances next week.

Sleeper: Um... Wisconsin? Honestly, they are the lowest seeded team I have in the Sweet 16 this year from the east. Strong seeding here.

Biggest first round upset: Harvard over Vanderbilt. Harvard was seeded very low. Vanderbilt NEVER wins in the first round. Upset made in heaven.

MIDWEST
Favorite: North Carolina. Just an FYI, the Heels lost today because they weren't playing at full strength. They are really good. My pick for the winner of the whole thing.

Sleeper: Temple. By default. I don't think they are that good, but I have them playing Ohio in round 2.The right side of the bracket is much easier to figure for me.

Biggest first round upset: Michigan really struggles against size and away from Crisler Arena. This game will feature both things, big dudes and an arena in not Michigan. First round upsets will abound, but it will sort itself out in the second round, unlike certain other brackets I know.

Enjoy the Dance, everyone!

Who needs it more tonight?

Tonight, both the Gophers and Boilermakers play vital games on their Big Ten schedule. Both teams have slid a bit lately and both surely need a win tonight as they enter the home stretch of the regular season. Which team needs a win more tonight?  Neither team is very good, and at this point, the only thing I can think that separates the two teams is that Purdue beat Minnesota. But which team needs to win more tonight? I argue that it's Purdue.
Despite the fact that ESPN's Bracketology has Purdue in and Minnesota out currently, I would say that the truly "must win" game belongs to Purdue. It has more to do with the opponent each team is facing, rather than the situation for the team. Surely, Minnesota needs to win a couple of more games, but it would be hard to say that a loss to the #6 team in the country, Michigan State, would make things much worse for them.
On the other hand, Purdue is playing Nebraska. If the Boilermakers start losing to teams like Nebraska or Penn State down the stretch, they are in a much less enviable situation. The Gophers likely need to beat Michigan State, Indiana or Wisconsin (as well as their season finale against Nebraska) to remain in contention, but losing in any of those three games specifically doesn't make things worse for them. Purdue, on the other hand, would play themselves out of the tournament, perhaps, if they lose to Nebraska today.
I would say that would mean Purdue needs a win more this evening, right? Of course, I would prefer both teams win this evening. Let's hope both squads can make it happen.

So... What's great about this again?

I don't know if you remember this, but a few years back, the Great Alaska shootout was a really big deal. I remember Purdue started to make some noise, defeating Duke in the shootout in 2003. Those are big gets! In the years since, major conferences sent in quality teams to compete in the event. IT was one of the premier preseason tourneys, right up there with Maui and the preseason NIT.
This year, tonight's Championship game features Murray State and Southern Mississippi. I would like to say both teams have made impressive runs to get to this point. Murray State defeated Alaska-Anchorage and San Francsico. Southern Miss knocked off perennial stalwarts UC Irvine and New Mexico State. They couldn't even get the good team from New Mexico.
So what happened? It likely has something to do with a crush of tournaments that tend to have better sponsors and locations. If you had the choice of Puerto Rico or Anchorage in late November, what would you pick? But still, it's a nice little get for Murray State or Southern Miss if they win tonight.
I guess.

The Remastered Tournament's Remastered Results

Remember from before the Final Four, when I groused about how the NCAA Tournament doesn't really reward the top regular season teams? It was definitely borne out this year, when Connecticut, a team that finished 9th in conference, ended up winning the national title over a team that ended up second. I don't REALLY have a problem with a team that doesn't win their conference winning the national title, I have a problem with the path for those teams being just as easy as the teams that had dominant regular seasons.
Anyways, I created the tournament and ran it to completion, and there were some surprises and some that weren't as terribly surprising. The unsurprising: The Final Four of the primary, regular season champion tournament was Kansas vs Florida and Ohio State vs BYU, 4 of the top 5 seeds. One of the Final Four ended up in the Final Four in the secondary tournament as well, as Kansas squared off against Notre Dame, Kentucky and Louisville. No real major upsets getting all the way through, though Louisville (who lost to Morehead State in the real tournament in round one) was the 17th rated team in the RPI and was 4th team in the Big East. Naturally, they ended up winning the secondary tournament to face Ohio State, the eventual champions of the primary.
The path to get there shows me that what happened was exactly what I wanted to happen. Ohio State definitely had the easier path, iwth victories over Bethune Cookman, Belmont, Coastal Carolina, BYU and Kansas. Louisville had a longer and perhaps more challenging path, with victories against Iona, Oakland, Alabama, Belmont, Purdue, Kentucky, and Kansas. That is an absolutely grueling path, and if they would beat Ohio State, you would be hard pressed to argue that they didn't earn the national championship.
Of course, they did. Much to my surprise, it was the Louisville Cardinals who ended up winning the top prize in my remastered tournament. I like this idea, and whether you like it or not, I'm going to try it again next year.

What if the NCAA tournament was like European soccer?

After today's elimination of Kansas, there are no outright champions from any conference in the Final Four. The question then becomes, what is the point of winning a conference, if a team that finished NINTH in their conference still has a chance to win the national title?
So what can be done to perhaps reward a team that is more successful in regular season rather than simply rewarding teams that do well late? What if there was a UEFA style tournament at the end of the season? What do I mean? Well, in Europe, there are two primary championship tournaments, the Champions League and the Europa Cup. We could do this, or something similar, in college basketball. Here is what I envision:
The Championship tournament involves the 32 regular season champions, seeded based on RPI (We are making the Great West a post season eligible conference now). Then, we would have the larger secondary tournament. I don't have a name for this. Entrants to the secondary tournament would be seeded somewhat based on RPI rankings as well. Here is how it works:
All conference tournament champions get entrance in the secondary tournament. In order to make this a 68 team tournament, we will also add teams based on their place in conference, so that conferences 1-6 get 4 teams (either the conference tournament champ and teams 2-4 or if the regular season champ or team 2-4 won the tournament, then simply teams 2-5), conference 7-10 get 3 teams and 10-20 get 2 and 20-32 get 1. Also, to keep conference tournaments honest, if a regular season champ wins the conference tournament, they will get placed in secondary tournament upon elimination from the Championship tournament. How?
This is another highlight from the Europeans that I love. The draw. Let's say Ohio State makes it to the round of 16 in the primary tournament, but loses (just like they did this year). They get thrown in to the third round of the secondary tournament. There wouldn't be brackets, but a seeded draw for competitors. There would definitely be pick 'ems for people to play. Anyways, the top seeded teams would be drawn to play lower seeded teams every round in the secondary tournament.
At the end of the tournament, of course, we have the two tournament champions play each other for the national title. A team that gets hot late has a chance to win a title, like Connecticut this year, but the champion of their conference, Pitt, has a distinct advantage by playing against a smaller field and playing fewer games. Also, there is no squabbling about snubs. Everyone knows their place in the tournament. So what is our field? First, let's get easy and talk about the entire Champions bracket, again based on RPI. Below are the matchups for round one. Again, this is a regular tournament:
Kansas vs Utah Valley State, Ohio State vs Bethune Cookman, BYU vs Texas Southern, North Carolina vs McNeese State, Florida vs Murray State, Pittsburgh vs Florida Atlantic, Utah State vs Coastal Carolina, Arizona vs Northern Colorado, Xavier vs Fairfield, George Mason vs Vermont, UAB vs Wisconsin- Milwaukee, Princeton vs Long Beach State, Missouri State vs Bucknell, St. Mary's vs Kent State, Belmont vs Long Island, Oakland vs Charleston.
The entrants for the secondary tournament are listed below. If the conference regular season winner also won the tournament, they are in parentheses as a potential entrant into the tournament. I will draw the first two rounds probably tomorrow, and inform you what they look like before I start the arduous task of simulating the tournament, as usual using WhatifSports to find who might be the national champ in this format.
Big East
Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville, Connecticut
Big Ten
Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois (Ohio State)
Big 12
Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Missouri (Kansas)
Mountain West
San Diego State, UNLV, Colorado State, New Mexico
ACC
Duke, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson
SEC
Alabama, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Georgia (based on a head to head win over Mississippi State)
Pac-10
UCLA, Washington, USC
C-USA
UTEP, Tulsa, Memphis
A-10
Temple, Richmond, Duquesne
CAA
Old Dominion, Hofstra, VCU
Horizon
Butler, Cleveland State
Missouri Valley
Wichita State, Indiana State
WAC
Boise State, Idaho, (Utah State)
WCC
Gonzaga, San Francisco
Ivy
Harvard, Yale (Princeton)
MAAC
Iona, St. Peter's
A-Sun
East Tennessee State, Jacksonville (Belmont)
NEC
Quinnipiac, Robert Morris (Long Island)
Southern
Wofford, Western Carolina
MAC
Akron, Western Michigan
Summit
Oral Roberts (Oakland)
Big South
UNC-Asheville
Sun Belt
Arkansas-Little Rock
Big Sky
Montana (Northern Colorado)
Patriot
American (Bucknell)
Big West
UC-Santa Barbara
Ohio Valley
Morehead State
America East
Boston University
Southland
Texas-San Antonio
MEAC
Hampton
SWAC
Alabama State
Great West
North Dakota.

Like I said, I will have the seedings for you all tomorrow. Doesn't this sound like a whole barrel of monkeys?

What we have in the Sweet 16

I don't know what to say about Purdue. I was so hopeful, they had so much promise... I can't see the end of the season as anything but a complete failure. How does a team that prides itself on defense, one that has two seniors as it's top players completely wet the bed and give up 94 points against a CAA team? What an abomination. If there is any bright side, I guess it's that Purdue basketball has more hope than Purdue football.
But anyways, here is what we have in the Sweet 16. This is the first time since 1999 that there have been 4 double digit seeds in the Sweet 16, and we are guaranteed at least one in the Elite 8 after Florida State and VCU take on one another. This is also the first time that 3 double digit seeds have made it to the Sweet 16 in the same bracket. Put it like this: If Kansas makes it to the Final 4, the highest seed they will have played will be #8 Illinois.
On to the Big East, who I have said all along is overrated. The two teams they sent to the Sweet 16 were the two that had the chance to play other Big East teams. There are as many teams from Richmond, VA, (Richmond and VCU) in the Sweet 16 as there are teams from the Big East. In fact, if you look at the teams still left in the dance, the conference with the most teams left is the ACC, which has three out of their 4 teams still remaining. Conferences with two teams left are the Big Ten, Mountain West, SEC and the aforementioned Big East. How did anyone forget the ACC?
So, even with their run last year, did anyone expect Butler to be the only team from Indiana left at this stage? Anyways, I had Wisconsin topping the Bulldogs, so it doesn't really matter much to me. I will continue to root for Wisconsin, because I had them in the Final Four. In fact, my Final Four is still intact. I guess that's one thing to keep me going.

The irregularly updated basketball time blog Day 2

- Oakland vs Texas - Marv Albert! Craig Sager! Another introduction of the TNT NBA crew on an unsuspecting America. Texas was obviously a better team, in my opinion, but Oakland, despite the lack of talent was not nervous, owing to a difficult schedule this season. It's another of the strong mid-majors that got hosed on seeding, however, with Belmont and Utah State being the others. I really think the at large play ins are going to screw a few good conference champions out of deserved high seeds and unfairly eliminate them early.

- Tennessee vs Michigan - If you asked me to pick a game that would be an enormous 8-9 blow out, it would not have been this game. Bruce Pearl isn't even sweating through his jacket because this game is so out of hand. Speaking of Pearl, it was generally indicated that he would not be back next season, regardless of outcome, which makes this game incredibly awkward for him and his team. Fortunately, that unpleasant feeling is just about over.

- Akron vs Notre Dame - I am unabashedly cheering for Akron, who is only down by 4. They have a lot of players on the team that have been in the dance before, a lot of veteran talent and are seemingly comfortable, as they are somewhat surprisingly within 4 at the half. Of course, Notre Dame always comes into the dance with both hands around their throat, so I guess this isn't a huge surprise to anyone. Go Zips!
Akron hung with the Irish in this game, much to everyone's surprise and my delight, but  they never really went on a run. It was a game with a lot of baskets being swapped, and in the end it became clear that Notre Dame was struggling because their open looks just weren't going down.

- Villanova vs George Mason - FINALLY a Big East team starts hot, and it's one of the teams that was universally panned coming into the tournament. George Mason was a trendy pick to do well in the tournament until they got an 8 seed opposite Ohio State. But Villanova is well rested after not doing a thing for about two months.
GUS FREAKING JOHNSON! The best part is that this game is going down to the wire, so we will see Gus at this Gussiest in the end. Villanova came out fast as I mentioned, but George Mason brought it to within one, and the Wildcats have to be doubting themselves at this point.
George Mason did it! HUGE win, made even huger by the fact that Gus Johnson was able to properly lose it mid game. The Big East is now 5-3 in the first round, with three games against joke conferences, leaving them 2-3 against real competition, which means that they are... average.

- Memphis vs Arizona - Barkley has been trumpeting Arizona the entire day, and they came out extraordinarily flat. I suspected the Pac 10 might be surprisingly well represented again this year, but then I had Arizona losing in the next round and UCLA losing in round one, so I guess I don't know what I was thinking. Arizona came storming back after the Memphis Tigers got out to a hot start and even have a three point lead at the half.
Memphis came storming back again to retake the lead. It just dawned on me that this would be Calipari vs Memphis if the Tigers hang on. Very cagey, selection committee (erp, Arizona gets Texas, not Kentucky... Been a long week). Now, about that whole Big East-Big East second round thing.... But really, this has been one of the better games of the tournament, as both teams are athletic, and neither has been out of it at any point.
Charles Barkley again echoed the same sentiment, saying that these were two of the most athletic teams in the tournament, and it's hard to argue with that. It came down to the end of the game and one of those athletic plays from Derrick Williams. I haven't seen him play before today, but I am impressed.

- Hampton vs Duke - Another team that looks like they should from the beginning. Hampton looks scared, Duke looks confident and this is going very quickly, which is definitely good for the Pirates. Let's just hope it's only feelings that get hurt.
Hampton has 6 points in the second half. Poor, poor Hampton.
In describing this adventure, Kenny Smith said it was good for Kyrie Irving to see the court in a "game-like" atmosphere. Not in a game. Game-like. That's all you need to know.

- Florida State vs Texas A&M - This started exactly the way I thought it would. FSU's defense prevented A&M from scoring for the first 6 minutes. The problem was that the Seminoles weren't scoring themselves. Oops. This game is still tied, somehow.
 For the first time in about 13 years, the Seminoles got the win in the first round. I like the way they played defensively and they just seem long. Even if they don't beat Notre Dame on Sunday, It's going to be a pretty incredible game.

- Texas San Antonio vs Ohio State - Ohio State at this point is up 70-34. UTSA isn't even making that many mistakes, it's just total domination by Ohio State. It's pretty tough for a team to get up for this opening round game, but Thad Matta got OSU going. This kind of coaching and focus can't be good for the rest of their half of the bracket.

- Boston University vs Kansas - Hilarious that the game is so close. Sure, I've said all tournament that Boston got jobbed, being made a 16 seed, but still, Kansas SHOULD be annihilating them. That's why it's not right, because Boston should be getting embarrassed, undeservedly. But they aren't, so good for them.
Perhaps I spoke too soon. The Jayhawks turned it on in the second half and didn't look back. Definitely a situation of abundant talent overwhelming a less well conditioned team in Boston. Kansas moves on and will likely have something to talk about in practice tomorrow.

- Long Island vs North Carolina - North Carolina is simply too athletic. The Northeast Conference doesn't have that many good athletes, and probably got a reputation of a team that does, simply because their champion last year, Robert Morris, competed so well against Villanova in the tournament. Of course, North Carolina is already up, so this may also be a testament to the ACC, who has done well so far this year.
After I wrote this, LIU went on a run and kept it close at the half, but North Carolina then went out and took over in the second half. The first and perhaps last game of the tourney to put a team over 100, this was a demonstration in high powered offenses. Even Long Island scored over 70, but, you know, lost by 30. Seemed like every shot went down for both teams, though.

- St. Peter's vs Purdue - Purdue so far is dominant on defense, but they look like they are trying to force it. They know they are better, they know they haven't played well of late, and they are trying to make up for it. They need to stay within their game, and this will be a blowout instead of a mere victory
This game went pretty much exactly as hoped. Purdue was any sort of superlative when compared to St. Peter's but the one s that stood out were more athletic, bigger, longer and more cohesive. It's really kind of hard to say if Purdue is in a rhythm, because St. Peter's was really, really bad.  The defense looks to be there, however, so there are some good indications going forward.

- Marquette vs Xavier - For the first time, I have a compliment for a Big East team: Marquette looked GOOD. They definitely played like they were the favorite, and were helped by the fact that Xavier came out a little flat. They would be a tough team to face next round were they not facing Syracuse (assuredly) who will have a good book on them already.

- UNLV vs Illinois - I had UNLV winning this one, because I thought the Mountain West would represent themselves well. Illinois is blowing the Rebels out of the building. This and the Michigan game are huge for the Big Ten's reputation. It's almost as if the Big Ten was a tough conference that led to not many teams having great records. Penn State and Michigan State are the only two to lose, and both took it down to the wire so far.
The Rebels never really came back into it. I missed the end of this game though, because a police chase appears to have ended just outside my front door. There were dogs, and about 6 squad cars and an ambulance and it was crazy. I thought it was more entertaining the games, frankly. I want to know what happened.

- Georgia vs Washington - If conference strength continues to go to form, this will be a good win for Washington. I am so far impressed by Isaiah Thomas.
Georgia kept this game a lot closer than anyone expected. Or rather, than I expected. The SEC ended up going 1-3 on day one, while the Pac 10 is 3-0 (USC doesn't count because they didn't even get to the 64). Watch out for the Pac 10. Maybe Colorado will have a better shot next year out of the Pac 12.

- VCU vs Georgetown - Chris Wright is back and clearly healthy. This game is up and down and will be extremely entertaining down to the wire, if early indications are accurate. I don't think VCU will get gassed at this pace, because nobody seems tired in any games this season. This is a fun game too, because its the second CAA-Big East match.
Well, I was wrong. Georgetown was dominated by VCU down the stretch. The Big East looks really good now, don't they?! I like this result for Purdue, because it meant that they don't get a Georgetown team in rhythm and they DO get a team playing it's third game in 5 days. The game won't be easy, but it's a better match.

- Indiana State vs Syracuse - Hasn't really started yet, but the thing I have learned is that Indiana State has some ugly ass cheerleaders. Sorry ladies.
Syracuse let the Sycarmores hang around a little too long, but they ended up running away in the end. Indiana State wasn't a very good team, and one of the few teams (BYU the other) that didn't have a proliferation of tattoos. Interesting. Syracuse rebounds well, which is a good  sign for their future success. The Big East was 7-4 in the first round, and when you subtract the 1-3 seeds, they went 3-4, which ,as mentioned, is average. Two of those teams will lose this weekend, and the Big East will be left with at most 5 of their teams next weekend. What I'm saying though, is that Syracuse probably projects the best.

And that's it for the IUBTB! Not a chance this is happening tomorrow, but the Twitter will be alive and well

The irregularly updated basketball time blog

- Clemson vs West Virginia: 80 points in the first half is insane! But Clemson started hot, and West Virginia was good from behind the arc as well when they came back, but I think Clemson would be well served to keep going inside in the second half. I would like to see Clemson play UAB, West Virginia and Kentucky in three games. Academic powerhouses all.
And now the wheels are falling off for Clemson. Was it the quick turn around from game to game, or was it the fact that this is Clemson, and this is what they do?
West Virginia ends up winning the game, and someone legitimately named Dalton Pepper sealed the deal. I don't know A) how you can argue with that kind of a name? B) everyone in West Virginia doesn't have that name

- Butler vs Old Dominion: In a way, this has been like an NBA game. Each team goes on 5 minute runs, spread the floor WAY too much and Charles Barkley keeps showing up at half time.
This game is really just flying by, and in my flipping I don't see much of it. Every time I look, it seems like ODU is the clearly dominant team, but Butler is keeping it close.
Butler still never impressed me as the game went on, but they managed, somehow, to win the game. I don't know how, I don't know why, but they tipped in the game winner and should probably lose by 40 to Pitt on Saturday, but will probably win by 10.

- Morehead State vs Louisville - It took over 6 minutes for Louisville to score in this one. That's not good. Two Big East teams off to slow starts, but if West Virginia can get it together, then maybe Louisville can as well. Kenneth Faried is an animal. Everything as promised.
The first major stunner of the tournament! The Morehead Eagles tip the Louisville Cardinals. We get more of future superstar Faried on Saturday against either Vanderbilt or Richmond. There are always chic upset - picks, but frankly, it's games like this that throw everyone's brackets off. Also, the Big East is overrated as usual. More importantly, the Big East TOURNAMENT is overrated. Keep in mind, this is a team that reached the finals of that tournament.

- Penn State vs Temple: In watching this game so far, it is very clear who the best team in Pennsylvania is. Pitt. This is a tight battle that actually feels like a battle. The ODU-Butler game seemed like a game that ODU dominated but Butler won. No team here has the advantage, and either seems like they would be a tough matchup on Saturday.
And the Owls weasel their way to victory with a weird looking shot from an even weirder looking dude.

- Kentucky vs Princeton: It seemed at the beginning that Kentucky was going to completely destroy Princeton, but the Tigers stormed back to make it a 1 point game at the half. It's a standard veteran vs freshmen game, where Princeton is only in this because of their experience and chemistry.
this one comes down to the end. You can tell that Princeton played their game with a score like 57 all. Still, it's not a good sign for the SEC that their champ is struggling with an Ivy League school. And don't tell me that the Ivy League is strong this year. The co-champs, Harvard, got destroyed by Oklahoma State in the NIT

- UNC Asheville vs Pittsburgh - Absolutely no reason Asheville should be in this game. Pitt keeps turning the ball over, and Asheville is down only 5 late in the 1st. Of course, it is tough for Pitt to hang on to the ball when they play with both hands around their throat
This game should be embarrassing for Pitt. Yes, they are up 11 on Asheville midway through the second half, but really, you would think that a number one seed would make teams nervous, and Asheville isn't playing nervous at all. The Big East hasn't looked great today.
Well, Pitt pulled it out. Despite my rantings on Pitts mediocrity in this one, they were clearly the more talented team and managed to wear Asheville down, and doubled their advantage. I'm clearly still not imressed. Of course, it's hard to believe that they would have opened up their entire bag of tricks vs a 16 seed.

- Richmond vs Vanderbilt - This game has upset written all over it. I don't know many people that even have Vanderbilt winning. Every few minutes, they talk about Richmond's upset victories through their history. Well, so far Vanderbilt is the more physical team, and I really like the way they have looked today. Heck, they even destroyed a Richmond Spider's nose with an elbow underneath. If Vanderbilt gets through, you have to like their chances to even get to the Sweet 16.
If there was a theme to this game, it was "Richmond, hitting the running floater in the lane!" The Spiders are getting good penetration but avoiding contact now, and they keep hitting all these little floaters. I think now we are seeing why Vandy didn't do so well in the regular season, but they can certainly still turn things around and take back the lead.
Well, I was wrong. The trends held, and popular consensus was accurate. Richmond always gets upsets, Vanderbilt always loses and everyone picked this upset correctly. Congrats, nobody's brackets were busted.

- San Diego State vs Northern Colorado - Northern Colorado reminds me of North Dakota State a few years back. Spirited in their first year in the dance, giving their competition a scare. San Diego State, thankfully for them, doesn't look at all flustered. Yet
The Aztecs keep inching out further and further ahead. UNC is shooting very poorly, and while San Diego State hasn't done much better, they are getting more opportunities thanks to their size and athleticism. Not as close as the scoreboard indicates.
In the end, a high seed actually looked like a high seed. UNC is the first team today to actually look bad.

- Florida vs California Santa Barbara - Not only did Florida get criminally overseeded, but they also drew one of the weakest 15 seeds out there. Seriously, I think a team like Boston U impresses me more than UCSB. Florida is getting a ton of open looks, thanks in large part to the Gauchos' inability to communicate on defense. IT says something that Florida only has 12. They will win easily, however.
Florida has already opened a 20 point lead. Looks like the first real end to end domination of the tournament.
This one is at the half, but it might as well be over. Speaking of the half, how about that half time show? Charles Barkley seems a lot more informed than I would have ever thought. Also, I totally bet he is going to hang out with Gumbel after the show.
Let's just say, thank goodness this one ended. There was even a broken wrist for UCSB, so nothing went well there.

- BYU vs Wofford - Still way too early to have much of a valid opinion. I already feel like too much attention is going to be paid to Jimmer Fredette, especially from his own team, and may try to force it through him. Also, Wofford has 3 Minnesotans. So, Minnesota prep stars, go to small schools in South Carolina if you want to go to the Tournament, rather than the Big Ten school right next door.
Wofford is leading this game, and the lack of an inside presence for the Cougars has nothing to do with it. Wofford is hitting a lot of open shots, but from the perimeter and midrange, which can't be kept up. BYU just needs to score, score score.
Hey, BYU started to score. They only ended up with 69 so far, so the pace was clearly not dictated by the Cougars. Fredette ended up with 29, which is probably good, since everyone else on the team has 40. Wofford definitely looked like they belonged though, so good for them.

- Connecticut vs Bucknell - UConn looks confident, and are hitting from every where. 14 points before the first commercial. Bucknell looks awkward and gangly, but have actually scored a whopping 7 points.
UConn is also putting the beat down on their opponent. This doesn't remind me at all of their Big East run, however, simply because they were never up 15 in the first half during that run.
This game was ugly.I think Bucknell was probably seeded on previous season's reputation, but they simply were not very good.

- Belmont vs Wisconsin - Lots of talk about this being a potential upset game as well. I feel bad for Wisconsin, because it seems like they always draw an underseeded team. I thought Belmont could have been a 10 or 9 seed easily. The Badgers, though tied, already look deflated.
Hey! Wisconsin is playing like Wisconsin. They started to run away from the Belmont Bruins as they settled in. They're much bigger and locked down defensively to wear down Belmont. If Wisconsin is comfortable, I can't see them losing for a while.

- UCLA vs Michigan State- This one is still early, but a lot of people are looking forward to it. I hope everyone realizes that both of these teams are way down this year.
Hey, Michigan State played like the team they were all season, rather than tournament Michigan State. After the raging comeback from the Spartans, there probably have to be some questions about UCLA, but if they can play like the team that destroyed MSU in the first half, they should do well against Florida who only scrimmaged on Thursday.

- Gonzaga vs St. Johns - Finally, a slow starting Big East team pays for it! The Big East didn't look great all day, but they managed to get a second wind vs more or less inferior opponents to take games late. Not St. John's! They couldn't win all season away from Madison Square Garden and ended up paying for it in Denver. Charles Barkley was railing against the Big East all day, and I'm hoping he's right.

- Cincinnati vs Missouri - This was a battle between two teams that are always disappointing in the tournament. Only one team could suck! It happened to be Missouri today. I hated this game, because I picked Missouri and it was over early. It might be the Big 12 that rears it's ugly head as the weak power conference this year.

- Kansas State vs Utah State - Or not. The Aggies kept climbing back to within 7 or 8 and people kept saying that they were staying in it, but really, they weren't. People were just hoping that one of the late games would actually be good, and a lot of people picked Utah State. So Kansas State is playing Wisconsin. I wonder how many people actually picked that? It seemed as though everyone picked at least one of those teams to lose. Only one trendy upset came through though, and that was Richmond's win.
Also, kudos to Kansas State for being the first to wear something other than white as the higher seed.

A Purdue-centric look at the tournament

I said that when the bracket came out, I was extremely happy with the way the bracket set up for my Boilermakers. They come out flat in games where there isn't much reason to have energy, like against the Hawkeyes in Iowa and the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, when they squared off against a team that was playing for something while Purdue wasn't. I don't expect their recent slide to continue, is what I am saying.
The first round game against St. Peter's shouldn't be a problem if they come out like we all know the Boilers can play. Purdue is a much bigger, more athletic team.I am looking forward to this game in primetime, showing what the Boilers can do.
The second round will be interesting. Georgetown is completely imploding. They were doing well early in the season, but when star Chris Wright went down, the team did too. But now they are well rested and Wright may come back in time for the tournament. Still, if they are out of rhythm, they may lose to their first round opponent (USC or VCU, we'll find out tonight) and Purdue will have an easy time with whomever they end up playing. If Georgetown wins and gains a little momentum, I would grow a little concern.
In my brackets, I have Purdue playing either Florida State or Notre Dame in the Sweet 16. I think Purdue can play a little more athletically than either team, but Notre Dame can bomb from outside, and if they get hot, they could be tricky. The Seminorles are a completely opposite team, relying on an inside presence, and with Purdue having both Jajuan Johnson and a E'Twaun Moore playing inside and outside respectively, as well as several complimentary players (generally on the outside) that could match up with either team. I think a game against Florida State would be a better game for the Boilers than Notre Dame, but maybe playing against traitor Scott Martin would provide a little spirit for the team.
I don't want to get too far ahead of myself, but I feel like things are set up for what I have been saying all year. It will be disappointing if the Boilers don't reach at least the Elite 8.

The 2011 Tournament

Holy smokes, this is the worst bracket I think I have ever seen. Once you get to the 3rd seed, I think it's a complete crap shoot. I just went by gut on all my picks (and I watch a LOT of basketball, so this isn't just fluff) and I had:
- 8 double digit seeds winning in the first round
- 5 upsets in the 2nd round
- A 10 seed (Michigan State) in the Elite 8
- a 5 seed (Kansas State) in the in the Final 4.
- 3 1 seeds (Kansas, Duke, Ohio State) in the Final 4.

I don't care for my bracket, because there is so much parity past the 2nd seeds. Here were my guiding forces:
- The SEC is complete garbage. I had Florida losing no matter who they played in the 2nd round.
- The West Coast conferences did extremely well last year, so I picked Pac 10 and WCC's Gonzaga to excel a little bit better than their seeds may have suggested.
- The Big East is solid, but the reason the conference tournament was so wild is because the top teams aren't elite. They tend not to do well in the Big Dance, and Pitt and Notre Dame, the conferences highest seeded teams are the worst offenders.
- I like the Big 12 and the ACC to be surprisingly successful this year from the middle of their conference. I think North Carolina is a little too immature and may take teams lightly like they did at the beginning of the season.

But in my opinion, the bracket is putrid. The lower seeds are almost as good as the higher seeds in far too many cases for me to be comfortable with any early round picks, but I think this will be a good year for the top seeds.

Victoria Times Bracketology

As is my custom when Tournament time approaches, I have put together a bit of bracketology. Keep in mind, I don't use even close to the same formula the actual bracket pickers use, and I'm no Joe Lunardi (I put this together in an hour and a half, he is paid handsomely to make this his life). The added 4 teams to this tournament led to a few alterations to the seeding. The 11 teams from the Big East also are a pain. Anyways, here are the seeds. Overall #1 is Kansas, then Ohio State, Duke and BYU.
Southwest (San Antonio) - 1 Kansas vs 16 (Florida Atlantic vs Bethune Cookman), 8 Illinois vs 9 Temple, 5 Utah State vs 12 Georgia, 4 Louisville vs 13 Harvard, 3 Georgetown vs 14 Long Beach State, 6 Missouri vs 11 UCLA, 7 West Virginia vs 10 St. Mary's, 2 Purdue vs 15 Coastal Carolina.
East (Newark) - 1 Ohio State vs 16 (McNeese St. vs Texas Southern) 8 Kansas State vs 9 Belmont, 5 Florida vs 12 Memphis, 4 Syracuse vs 13 Missouri State, 3 Wisconsin vs 14 Fairfield, 6 St. John's vs 11 Florida State, 7 Washington vs 10 UAB, 2 San Diego State vs 15 Kent State
Southeast (New Orleans) - 1 Duke vs 16 Murray State, 8 Texas A&M vs 9 Michigan State, 5 Villanova vs 12 (Clemson vs Butler) 4 Kentucky vs 13 Oakland, 3 North Carolina vs 14 Vermont, 6 Connecticut vs 11 Minnesota, 7 UNLV vs 10 Marquette, 2 Texas vs 15 Montana
West (Anaheim) 1 BYU vs 16 Wisconsin-Milwaukee, 8 Cincinnati vs 9 Old Dominion, 5 Vanderbilt vs 12 (Penn State vs Maryland) 4 Notre Dame vs 13 Charleston, 3 Arizona 14 Bucknell, 6 George Mason vs 11 Virginia Tech, 7 Xavier vs 11 Tennessee, 2 Pittsburgh vs 15 Long Island

Kind of a weird tournament. Three teams from Wisconsin? And right now, many are saying the Big Ten might get 5, but using my formula, they get seven. Interesting what happens when people take objective looks at the data, isn't it?

Villanova: Your national Champions!

On the heels of the NCAA determining that they will only add three teams to their set up, I finally got around to finishing up my simulation of the 347 team (all of the teams, actually) basketball tournament, where seeding was based on RPI and etc. I used Whatifsports as usual, and played the first two rounds at the higher seed, with all other games at a neutral site. I already spoiled the end, but I will gladly tell you that the elite 8 consisted of Kansas, Murray State, Virginia, Florida State, Mississippi, Villanova (the eventual winner, of course), Texas and Syracuse, with Kansas, Florida State, Villanova and Texas making the final four.In the end, Villanova defeated Kansas 77-71, Never mind that this was a contest between two teams who, in the real world, both lost in the second round. Actually, none of the final four teams made it out of the second round. Syracuse was the only elite 8 team that even made it to the Sweet 16 in the real world.
To get to their national simulated championship, the Wildcats had to square off with and defeat, in order: Louisiana-Lafayette, Vermont, Illinois, Richmond, Wake Forest, Mississippi, Florida State and Kansas. That particularly grueling path saw them take on 5 teams that actually made the dance, which is certainly more than I had guessed.So congratulations Villanova, Whatifsports thinks you are good for something. Of course, this also proves that more teams in a tournament almost never means you get a better team as the champion. But let's not spoil the moment.

OK So maybe there is an East Coast Bias

At the beginning of the tournament, the Big East and the Atlantic Ten were all conferences to watch. The WCC and the Pac 10 were poorly regarded (even by this site). So far in the tournament, of the 8 teams from the Big East, we are left with only three teams. The A-10 is left with 1 of their three remaining teams after Richmond and Temple were upset. Meanwhile, bot the Pac-10 and WCC are 6-0 in the Dance. So, uh, our bad.
The only thing assuring that an A-10/Big East team will remain at the end of this round is the fact that Xavier is playing Pitt. Meanwhile, Missouri could be West Virginia and Gonzaga could top Syracuse. In fact, the way things are going... Gonzaga WILL beat Syracuse. I'm not one to ignore trends.

More in depth bracket talk

This year I am sticking with two brackets. One involves my gut, the other a bit more math. Below, I will break down the bracket and give you my gut reaction and what the math says. "Sleepers" simply means first round upset.

MIDWEST:
Sleepers:
Gut - Georgia Tech
Math: Georgia Tech, Northern Iowa
E8
Gut - Kansas over Georgetown
Math: Kansas over Georgetown

The Midwest was almost exactly the same in both brackets. I did have Georgia Tech and Maryland in the S16 with my gut, and Michigan State and Ohio State with the math.

WEST
Sleepers:
Gut - Florida State, UTEP, Florida
Math - UTEP
E8
Gut - Pitt over Vanderbilt
Math - BYU over Syracuse

This is the toughest to pick. God bless you if you do well here. In the math, as you can see, BYU made a run all the way to the Final Four, with UTEP in the Sweet 16. I have FSU beating Syracuse if they make it that far. I think if Syracuse gets out of the first weekend, then they will be tough to stop.

EAST
Sleepers
Gut - Wofford, Washington, Missouri
Math - Washington, Missouri
E8
Gut - Kentucky over New Mexico
Math - Kentucky over New Mexico

Don't sleep on New Mexico. As you can see by the math putting BYU in the Final Four, that's a tough conference, the WAC. Also, Marquette is one of the most overseeded teams in the tournament.

SOUTH
Sleepers
Gut - Louisville, Utah State, Old Dominion
Math - Siena, Old Dominion
E8
Gut - Baylor over Louisville
Math - Duke over Villanova

Wow, is this one tough too. According to my calculations, Old Dominion should have actually been seeded HIGHER than Notre Dame. Amazing.  My gut has Purdue simply squaring off against some easy competition and losing to a Louisville team because of the "Purdue turns to crap every third game" pattern. Louisville is also a bad matchup for Duke, and Siena is egregiously underseeded.

In the Final Four, I picked Kentucky over Kansas every time, because, well, that's just what I think (and what the math thinks) will happen. Good luck, and happy bracketeering!

Initial NCAA Gut reactions

1) Kentucky will win. They have all the requirements. Experienced coach, all star player (who even has an idiotic dance!) and a persistence atop the polls this year.

2) Lowest seeded Round 1 winner: 13 seed Woffoad. Lowest seeded Round 2 winner: Georgia Tech

3) Final Four: Kentucky, Kansas, Pitt and Baylor (?!) I think there will be revisions.

4) So many people have talked about Siena beating Purdue, I'm to the point that I am back on the "Purdue wins easily" bandwagon.

More well thought out proclamations coming on Tuesday. Just wait. And don't fill out your brackets before then.

Beware the media hype

A lot of analysts like to say things and make proclamations based on quick glimmers of a team or things they have heard. Of course, if someone has spent time watching a team over the course of a season, I would think that person would have the capability to make a more accurate assessment of the team.
I can't imagine that anyone has watched the Murray State Racers all that much, however I did take the time to go to a game and see them in person, as well as watch them on TV a couple of times. The common perception is, given their record, that the the Racers will be a prime candidate to upset a higher seeded team. No doubt, they are no fluke and are a quality small conference team, however I am not convinced they are the right team to consider when looking for upset specials.
The Racers didn't win most of their games because they were a better basketball team, but rather because they had the better athletes. Most of their games this season, including games against less than elite teams, were very close for much of the first half. In the end, though, their opponents wore down and they were able to pull away late. The problem with whatever team they will be playing in the NCAA Tournament is that they will not only be good basketball teams, but will also have excellent athletes that won't wear down down the stretch. Murray State is a young enough team that they will be back in the tourney in coming years. They will develop a more refined game, and will then start to win in the tournament. For the time being, however, don't expect the Racers to make a splash this year.
Conversely, my Boilermakers are an elite version of the Racers. Undersized, but a team full of athletes. They have been running down their opponents all season, generally as a second half team. On this team full of athletes, I'm not entirely sure why anyone would think missing one player who isn't the point or the center should keep them from making a deep run in the tournament, especially since they will have the benefit of being a 2 seed. But that's a post for another time.

Projecting the bracket

What did I do late on a Saturday night? Why, I projected the NCAA bracket, of course. Without further ado, using my own special formula, here is my projected bracket: (this projects Akron as the winner of the MAC, which means that, miraculaously, Kent State slips in as an at large) The last 8 out, in Lunardi style, were Mississippi State, Texas Tech, Illinois, Wichita State, St. Mary's, Arizona State, Charlotte and Seton Hall. Let's see if this copy paste's like I want it to. The city inside every pair of games would be where the games are played in the first 2 rounds

	MIDWEST		EAST
1	Kansas		Kentucky	1
16	Jackson State/Lehigh		Robert Morris	16
	Oklahoma City		Milwaukee
8	California		UTEP	8
9	UAB		Missouri	9
5	Wisconsin		Michigan State	5
12	Connecticut		Georgia Tech	12
	Spokane		Spokane
4	Vanderbilt		BYU	4
13	Kent State		Marquette	13
3	New Mexico		Butler	3
14	Akron		Woffod	14
	San jose		San Jose
6	Texas		Texas A&M	6
11	Cornell		UNLV	11
7	Richmond		Xavier	7
10	Florida State		Clemson	10
	Buffalo		Providence
2	West Virginia		Villanova	2
15	UC Santa Barbara		Morgan State	15
	WEST		SOUTH
1	Purdue		Syracuse	1
16	Stony Brook		North Texas	16
	Milwaukee		Buffalo
8	Wake Forest		Virginia Tech	8
9	Louisville		Rhode Island	9
5	Baylor		Tennessee	5
12	Florida		Old Dominion	12
	New Orleans		New Orleans
4	Temple		Ohio State	4
13	Oakland		Murray State	13
3	Pittsburgh		Georgetown	3
14	Weber State		Sam Houston State	14
	Jacksonville		Providence
6	Gonzaga		Northern Iowa	6
11	Dayton		Siena	11
7	Utah State		Maryland	7
10	Oklahoma State		San Diego State	10
	Jacksonville		Oklahoma State
2	Duke		Kansas State	2
15	Coastal Carolina		Jacksonville	15

 

That wasn't so bad. Share your thoughts in the comments.

NCAA gut feelings

Lets say, for a minute, that the NCAA tournament is laid out in a similar fashion to what is seen from Joe Lunardi. Well, maybe not exactly like Joe Lunardi, but his team.

1) Ohio State is a Final Four team, thanks in large part to Evan Turner, a player that can take over a game.

2) The WAC is deceptively athletic, and it's champion will, if not win their 1st round match up, they will put quite the scare into their opponent. In Lunardi's game, it's Utah State vs Gonzaga. Sure win for USU.

3) The WCC is almost comically overrated, on that same token. Gonzaga or St. Mary's are losers waiting to happen.

4) It really depends on who Murray State plays. If they play a major conference opponent, they are done. If not, they could score an upset. IF they get in the tournament.

5) Northeastern, if they win the CAA is a good upset candidate as well, given their ability to hit from deep. Always key in the tournament.

6) Don't be fooled by middling major conference teams who have home wins against strong teams or make runs in their tournaments to get in. It happened with Georgia a few years ago. I think maybe Louisville,

Those are my 6 points to look for when filling out your brackets. Maybe I'll do a day one live blog or something.

Time to focus on the positive

You could say that it's a good year already for Purdue fans. I suppose that's true if you aren't a Colts fan. Back in West Lafayette, the local CBS affiliate would show Chargers games simply because of Drew Brees, favorite son of the Boilermakers. Well, I like Brees, but truth be told, I'm a Colts fan and really was never a fan of Purdue until AFTER I got there. Just because I am a fan now doesn't mean I have to adopt their history. I grew up a Gophers fan and saw Purdue nip Minnesota in pretty much every sport, every year.
Well, of course, like a good student/alumnus, I am now black and gold blooded, and their every victory brings me joy and every defeat leaves me empty. The good news is, after the Indianapolis loss, I get to turn to college basketball, which is really a truer love for me than almost any sport.
All of that is a wordy introduction into the fact that Purdue is in a virtual 4 way logjam at the top of the Big Ten. They beat Michigan State last night in East Lansing in convincing fashion. Suck it, Bennett.