Beware the media hype

A lot of analysts like to say things and make proclamations based on quick glimmers of a team or things they have heard. Of course, if someone has spent time watching a team over the course of a season, I would think that person would have the capability to make a more accurate assessment of the team.
I can't imagine that anyone has watched the Murray State Racers all that much, however I did take the time to go to a game and see them in person, as well as watch them on TV a couple of times. The common perception is, given their record, that the the Racers will be a prime candidate to upset a higher seeded team. No doubt, they are no fluke and are a quality small conference team, however I am not convinced they are the right team to consider when looking for upset specials.
The Racers didn't win most of their games because they were a better basketball team, but rather because they had the better athletes. Most of their games this season, including games against less than elite teams, were very close for much of the first half. In the end, though, their opponents wore down and they were able to pull away late. The problem with whatever team they will be playing in the NCAA Tournament is that they will not only be good basketball teams, but will also have excellent athletes that won't wear down down the stretch. Murray State is a young enough team that they will be back in the tourney in coming years. They will develop a more refined game, and will then start to win in the tournament. For the time being, however, don't expect the Racers to make a splash this year.
Conversely, my Boilermakers are an elite version of the Racers. Undersized, but a team full of athletes. They have been running down their opponents all season, generally as a second half team. On this team full of athletes, I'm not entirely sure why anyone would think missing one player who isn't the point or the center should keep them from making a deep run in the tournament, especially since they will have the benefit of being a 2 seed. But that's a post for another time.