For the love of all that's sane...

Ryan's not going to discuss the Johan Santana trade. I'm certainly not here to discuss who "won" the trade, or who "lost" the trade. Let me bring up two facts:
1. You're not going to trade a super-star for two super-stars. While this is the only possible trade that would pacify most Minnesota fans, it wasn't going to happen.
2. It's way too soon to decide all that stuff.

As a Twins fan, I’m sad Santana is no longer with the team. On the other hand, the writing was on the wall, probably starting back in late July/early August when the Twins traded Luis Castillo. There was so much gossip, so many rumors, and so much drama, that it’s almost a relief that it’s over--provided the trade goes through. (And it will. There’s no way that the Mets spend so much time and energy to not work out a contract, unless Santana and his agent go insane and ask for $40 million per year for 60 years…) I really have little opinion of the trade. I don’t know enough about the kids involved to know, and it seems no one is quite decided, although most seem to think the Mets got a pretty good deal. I thought about doing an analysis of the players involved, but I need to see them in the Twins system before I can say anything. I’ll get back to you in August. I still won’t analyze the trade, most likely, but I’ll have a better idea of who these kids are.

Ryan also said he wasn’t going to talk about the Super Bowl. I stand by my assessment from last week. Undefeated is pretty awesome, and I’d love to see it. Two factors keep me from rooting for the Patriots: I’m a big fan of the underdog, and Boston fans are insufferable. On the other hand, New York fans are insufferable, too. Pretty much no matter what happens, there will be insufferable east coast fans, and an amazing end to a season for one team. I’m not expected to pick a winner, am I? Oh, fine. Patriots. Final score: 27-14. (I really hope someone uses my completely random prediction to make a bet. Because I completely made them up based on zero analysis of the teams, their seasons, and whatever else one analyzes to predict football scores.)

In other news, I watched the NHL All-Star game Sunday. It was a fun game. With a different goalie in the first period, the West would’ve had a nicer chance at the game. It was 5-1 East winning, after the first period, but ended up being a very intense end of the game, for a final of 7-6. It makes one wonder if a different goalie in the first for the West could’ve changed the game, although my untrained eye saw the West feeling each other out as a team in the first, and the East jumping right in with teamwork. Hey, kids, teamwork counts!

Really, Ryan. Kirk Cameron? :shakes head: How ‘bout this absolutely hilarious picture from the NHL All-Star weekend?

Feeling pretty mellow about the Santana trade

Sorry for not posting yesterday, I had a lot of stuff going on and ended up staying up for 22 straight hours as it was. But as a Minnesota blogger, I feel that I should mention that I'm not really apoplectic about the whole Santana deal. It is what it is.
The Twins offered Santana the largest contract they have ever offered anyone. They made a good faith effort to keep him. I think this move had something more to do with Santana than it did with the Twins penny pinching. Santana just wanted to move on, sick of a heretofore glacially paced front office staff, no defense, and not being able to hit.
I think all along Santana wanted to go to the Mets, and the Twins preferred moving him to the National League as well. The whole time, I suspect, they were playing the Yankees and Red Sox not against each other but against the Mets. If they really wanted the best deal on the table, they no doubt would have sent Santana to the Yankees. If it wasn't the Yankees, I would have made that trade too.
But no, the Twins wanted Santana on the Mets, as Santana wanted that as well. He seems to have a boyish enthusiasm for life and the game. I've never heard this in regard to a pitcher before, but apparently it was a big deal that he was able to hit. That's pretty awesome, and I actually have a lot of respect for him for making it that important for this deal.
As for the return, it was less than anyone expected, of course, but I think we were expecting too much. And besides, compared to other offers, it isn't substantially worse. Melky Cabrera isn't likely to get substantially better and Jacoby Ellsbury was highly overrated because of a few games down the stretch with the Red Sox, so Carlos Gomez, a speedy center fielder who is still 21 still has the potential to be better fit than both players, particularly if he can get his average up and take over the lead off role. If not, I think CF is Jason Pridie's to lose.
As for the pitchers, I don't think the Red Sox were offering anything special. John Lester battled cancer as recently as a year ago, and hasn't pitched much in the past couple of years. Who knows if he will ever return to form? The Yankees had offered the best prospect of any of the three deals in Ian Kennedy, who I think could be better than Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes. But the Mets offered up three prospects, in Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra. The Twins are essentially taking a flyer on Humber, a former first round draft pick who is on his last chance to prove himself and may do so in the Twin Cities. Kevin Mulvey isn't a dynamic, power pitcher, but the Twins don't seem to mind those (see: Radke, Silva) and is the most likely to break camp with the major league squad this year. Deolis Guerra, the last minute add-in could be the real prize. He's only 18, but is already drawing comparisons to Felix Hernandez who, if you haven't heard, is a pretty decent pitcher.
I think, having signed a couple of guys long term, and with the attention given to the offense this year, that the Twins aren't done. They need to resolve the Joe Nathan situation, either finally trading him (it's too late now, if you ask me. He was at peak value last year and now the Twins have shown they are willing to bend.) or try to resign him. And then trade him. They should get some more decent prospects out of that arrangement.
Next, there are two serviceable center field prospects still out there in Corey Patterson and Kenny Lofton. Putting either guys, both excellent with the glove, would be beneficial for a young pitcher learning to trust his defense. Lofton is a veteran who hasn't slowed down yet and would be ideal for the lead off role. Patterson seems to be cut from a similar cloth as Torii Hunter, good for about 15 homeruns, a .270 batting average and some plays in center field. The best part is that he will be 28, about when Hunter started to really turn it around and start hitting a lot better.
And now, the Twins have a preponderance of prospects, and likely more if Nathan is moved. There is nothing stopping them from making another move to patch another hole down the road. All told, I'm sad to see Santana go, but I'll move on.

Because you haven't heard enough...

It's true. You haven't heard enough about Johan Santana and that he might be traded by the Minnesota Twins. It’s probably been at least 30 seconds since the last headline about the situation. Frankly, that’s just too long, so I’m going to add to the fray.

The big problem now is that with the relatively recent decision by some small-market teams to use their farm systems to create winning teams, young prospects have been valued all through professional baseball. Even the large-market teams that can afford the superstars are realizing the value of their prospects. This is making the Santana trade very difficult, because his value is hard to judge. How many prospects is a superstar worth? It's not an equal comparison. You might as well ask how many oranges is an electric pencil sharpener worth.

I’ve heard this argument from fans of teams to whom Santana may be traded: "Wait until Santana hits free agency next year! Then we can get him without giving up any prospects!" I think those fans are slightly deluded. For sake of argument, let's pretend that it's the Kansas City Royals going up against the Florida Marlins and Tampa Bay "Devil" Rays. Let's say the Twins worked out a deal to get four of the Royals prospects/rookies for Santana. Now it's up to the Royals to give Santana a contract he likes (say six years for $140 million), he'll accept the trade (what with the no-trade clause), and the deal is done.

Let's say they wait until November, when Santana becomes a free agent. Now the Royals offer Santana the contract the would've offered him now. But then the Marlins come by and say, "We'll give you six years for $150 million." The Rays pipe up and offer seven years for $160 million." The Royals now have to decide whether it's the years or the money that are interesting Santana. Will six years for $170 do it, or seven years for $170? What is it he wants?” In the end, they could end up paying more for Santana next year than they would've paid those prospects for the years of his contract. (Monetarily, anyway.) And with a strong starting pitcher, they might have a World Series ring or two--while he wouldn’t be solely responsible for it, he could be the final push to get it.

What factors are involved in the decision-making of prospects versus a veteran? First, prospects/rookies aren't that expensive (if Santana were traded, it's likely the entire Twins rotation could cost the Twins approximately $2 million, at $400,000 each for Baker, Bonser, Slowey, Perkins, and Blackburn (or whoever is picked up in the trade)). The earliest they can become expensive is when they reach arbitration, which is after three years (or certain cases, two years). The earliest they can file for free agency is after six years. So years 3-6 (or 4-6), can be more expensive, but since they're not in the midst of a bidding war, the prices are still often relatively cheap. Thus, for the six years of Santana's proposed contract, the prospects and rookies would be relatively cheap--and if the prospects are young enough who don’t make the majors immediately, they could well be cheap after Santana's contract is over. Finally, there are no guarantees with prospects. A trade could be 5-for-1, and if all 5 fizzle, it could be a bust trade for the team getting more players. That's why superstars generally command multiple prospects: usually one or two of the prospects will pan out well enough to equal the value of the loss of the superstar.

Those that say the Twins are asking too much for Santana may be right. Those that are saying that they can get Santana cheaper next year, well, they could be right, too. But are they certain? And are they willing to risk it? It’s a gamble.

I’m not a football fan, but I’m torn in regards to the Super Bowl. On one hand, seeing a team go undefeated is pretty amazing, and it would be fun to watch. On the other hand, I’m wired to root for the underdog in most cases, and it would be awesome to see the Giants pull out an amazing victory. How insufferable would Boston fans be if they won? I dread it very much.

Worse than losing Torii Hunter? How about losing Santana

For years now, Torii Hunter has been my favorite Twin, but I've realized lately that it was time for him to go, especially at the price the Angels are giving him. What is certain now, however, is that if the Twins are concerned with winning in the next couple of years, Johan Santana is absolutely indispensable now.
The Twins are opening a new stadium in 2010, and I'm sure they would like to have an exciting product on the field on opening day. For the past half decade, the Twins have had two players that breed excitement both here and in other markets, and they were Torii Hunter and Johan Santana. Sure, the Twins have had Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, but 75% of teams have a low key hitter batting around .300 with 35 home runs, meaning Morneau really isn't all that different from anyone, and Joe Mauer doesn't have the dynamic personality that one wants from a premier star. Sure, he's popular in his hometown and definitely with the teenage girls, but he just doesn't have the personality to make his high batting average seem all that exciting.
Like it or not, Torii Hunter had fire in his belly, and was noticed. I can't tell you how many dogs and cats I know that were named Torii. No other Twins name, save for Kirby, even comes close. Johan Santana doesn't have the same intensity, but given his Cy Youngs, he certainly gets the same publicity. There's no doubt he would provide the excitement the Twins need to open the stadium.
From a strictly baseball standpoint, he is the best pitcher in the game on a team that had no offense before Hunter walked out the door, which increases his value as it is. Next, there is no rotation, but a bounty of high end prospects. These guys could certainly be dealt for the bats the Twins need, with the remaining pitchers succeeding under the tutelage of Santana. If the Twins decide that now is the time to open their pocketbooks (do people still use pocketbooks?), I certainly hope that some of that cash is directed to Santana.
Of course, the Twins have offered Santana a contract, which he countered with a request equal to Barry Zito's contract last year. There was no per year increase in value in his counter offer, but the Twins are balking at giving Santana 7 years and fielding trade offers now. Originally, the trade offers were promising and exciting, but now they seem to be fraught with prospects that seem as though they should have panned out by this point (Lastings Milledge comes to mind (according to my spell check, there is a word "Lastings")). Moving Santana now would be sending a horrible message to the fan base, namely, "You built our stadium, and now we're done trying to win".
If Santana goes, there is only one player of consequence left on the roster that could potentially leave via free agency, and that's Morneau. Sure, he says he would love to stay in Minnesota and that he and Joe Mauer are best friends, but athletes sing that same tune all the time, especially when a team is winning. Ask him again when the team is rebuilding during a contract year, and see how quickly he buys a house in Seattle. Heck, Mauer may be inclined to get off the sinking ship too if things aren't looking up. He did sign on to play football at Florida State, after all, so he may have the itch to get out of town. More than likely, I see him remaining the Twins version of Mike Sweeney, however.
And that's the final reason that Santana is indispensable. Not only would losing Santana make next season a tough go, but it would cripple the franchise for at least a decade. I'm not optimistic.