Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Feeling pretty mellow about the Santana trade

Sorry for not posting yesterday, I had a lot of stuff going on and ended up staying up for 22 straight hours as it was. But as a Minnesota blogger, I feel that I should mention that I'm not really apoplectic about the whole Santana deal. It is what it is.
The Twins offered Santana the largest contract they have ever offered anyone. They made a good faith effort to keep him. I think this move had something more to do with Santana than it did with the Twins penny pinching. Santana just wanted to move on, sick of a heretofore glacially paced front office staff, no defense, and not being able to hit.
I think all along Santana wanted to go to the Mets, and the Twins preferred moving him to the National League as well. The whole time, I suspect, they were playing the Yankees and Red Sox not against each other but against the Mets. If they really wanted the best deal on the table, they no doubt would have sent Santana to the Yankees. If it wasn't the Yankees, I would have made that trade too.
But no, the Twins wanted Santana on the Mets, as Santana wanted that as well. He seems to have a boyish enthusiasm for life and the game. I've never heard this in regard to a pitcher before, but apparently it was a big deal that he was able to hit. That's pretty awesome, and I actually have a lot of respect for him for making it that important for this deal.
As for the return, it was less than anyone expected, of course, but I think we were expecting too much. And besides, compared to other offers, it isn't substantially worse. Melky Cabrera isn't likely to get substantially better and Jacoby Ellsbury was highly overrated because of a few games down the stretch with the Red Sox, so Carlos Gomez, a speedy center fielder who is still 21 still has the potential to be better fit than both players, particularly if he can get his average up and take over the lead off role. If not, I think CF is Jason Pridie's to lose.
As for the pitchers, I don't think the Red Sox were offering anything special. John Lester battled cancer as recently as a year ago, and hasn't pitched much in the past couple of years. Who knows if he will ever return to form? The Yankees had offered the best prospect of any of the three deals in Ian Kennedy, who I think could be better than Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes. But the Mets offered up three prospects, in Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra. The Twins are essentially taking a flyer on Humber, a former first round draft pick who is on his last chance to prove himself and may do so in the Twin Cities. Kevin Mulvey isn't a dynamic, power pitcher, but the Twins don't seem to mind those (see: Radke, Silva) and is the most likely to break camp with the major league squad this year. Deolis Guerra, the last minute add-in could be the real prize. He's only 18, but is already drawing comparisons to Felix Hernandez who, if you haven't heard, is a pretty decent pitcher.
I think, having signed a couple of guys long term, and with the attention given to the offense this year, that the Twins aren't done. They need to resolve the Joe Nathan situation, either finally trading him (it's too late now, if you ask me. He was at peak value last year and now the Twins have shown they are willing to bend.) or try to resign him. And then trade him. They should get some more decent prospects out of that arrangement.
Next, there are two serviceable center field prospects still out there in Corey Patterson and Kenny Lofton. Putting either guys, both excellent with the glove, would be beneficial for a young pitcher learning to trust his defense. Lofton is a veteran who hasn't slowed down yet and would be ideal for the lead off role. Patterson seems to be cut from a similar cloth as Torii Hunter, good for about 15 homeruns, a .270 batting average and some plays in center field. The best part is that he will be 28, about when Hunter started to really turn it around and start hitting a lot better.
And now, the Twins have a preponderance of prospects, and likely more if Nathan is moved. There is nothing stopping them from making another move to patch another hole down the road. All told, I'm sad to see Santana go, but I'll move on.

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1 Comments:

Blogger thisisbeth said...

Looking at Mulvey's numbers, he's a bit intriguing, as well.

I'm not overly concerned either way. After so much drama, it's hard for me to command any sort of emotion.

1:07 PM  

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