Thursday, November 22, 2007

Worse than losing Torii Hunter? How about losing Santana

For years now, Torii Hunter has been my favorite Twin, but I've realized lately that it was time for him to go, especially at the price the Angels are giving him. What is certain now, however, is that if the Twins are concerned with winning in the next couple of years, Johan Santana is absolutely indispensable now.
The Twins are opening a new stadium in 2010, and I'm sure they would like to have an exciting product on the field on opening day. For the past half decade, the Twins have had two players that breed excitement both here and in other markets, and they were Torii Hunter and Johan Santana. Sure, the Twins have had Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, but 75% of teams have a low key hitter batting around .300 with 35 home runs, meaning Morneau really isn't all that different from anyone, and Joe Mauer doesn't have the dynamic personality that one wants from a premier star. Sure, he's popular in his hometown and definitely with the teenage girls, but he just doesn't have the personality to make his high batting average seem all that exciting.
Like it or not, Torii Hunter had fire in his belly, and was noticed. I can't tell you how many dogs and cats I know that were named Torii. No other Twins name, save for Kirby, even comes close. Johan Santana doesn't have the same intensity, but given his Cy Youngs, he certainly gets the same publicity. There's no doubt he would provide the excitement the Twins need to open the stadium.
From a strictly baseball standpoint, he is the best pitcher in the game on a team that had no offense before Hunter walked out the door, which increases his value as it is. Next, there is no rotation, but a bounty of high end prospects. These guys could certainly be dealt for the bats the Twins need, with the remaining pitchers succeeding under the tutelage of Santana. If the Twins decide that now is the time to open their pocketbooks (do people still use pocketbooks?), I certainly hope that some of that cash is directed to Santana.
Of course, the Twins have offered Santana a contract, which he countered with a request equal to Barry Zito's contract last year. There was no per year increase in value in his counter offer, but the Twins are balking at giving Santana 7 years and fielding trade offers now. Originally, the trade offers were promising and exciting, but now they seem to be fraught with prospects that seem as though they should have panned out by this point (Lastings Milledge comes to mind (according to my spell check, there is a word "Lastings")). Moving Santana now would be sending a horrible message to the fan base, namely, "You built our stadium, and now we're done trying to win".
If Santana goes, there is only one player of consequence left on the roster that could potentially leave via free agency, and that's Morneau. Sure, he says he would love to stay in Minnesota and that he and Joe Mauer are best friends, but athletes sing that same tune all the time, especially when a team is winning. Ask him again when the team is rebuilding during a contract year, and see how quickly he buys a house in Seattle. Heck, Mauer may be inclined to get off the sinking ship too if things aren't looking up. He did sign on to play football at Florida State, after all, so he may have the itch to get out of town. More than likely, I see him remaining the Twins version of Mike Sweeney, however.
And that's the final reason that Santana is indispensable. Not only would losing Santana make next season a tough go, but it would cripple the franchise for at least a decade. I'm not optimistic.

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Monday, November 12, 2007

Is this it for the Twins?

Well friends, it may be almost over here in about 24 hours. We hear in Minnesota have grown accustomed to seeing a winning team taking the baseball diamond every year for the past 6 or so years, but that magical ride could come off the tracks in about 24 hours. Yes, baseball's free agency period is beginning tomorrow, and while it used to pass under the radar here in Minnesota (either we wouldn't be losing any major pieces or the ones we brought in were nothing to sneeze at, see: Tony Batista) this offseason will spell the fate of the Twins for the next 5 years or so.
Torii Hunter is all but gone, which makes a decision on Johan Santana's future essential to the Twins now. New GM Bill Smith must do something before the season starts. The way I see it, he has two options. Trade Santana now and get some ready to play outfielders and other prospects to open the new stadium in 2010 or resign him to the most expensive contract in Minnesota Twins history. There is, of course, a third option I'm not mentioning but has been mentioned by many that also follow the game. Trade some pitching prospects for some bats and win in 2008. I'm less than enamored with that idea.
There are problems, of course, with all of the ideas. The first plan is essentially a signal that the Twins are rebuilding. Of course, this is fine if the team eventually does rebuild. Will Justin Morneau want to continue to wear a Twins uniform after he plays through another struggling season? Perhaps not. The other issue? Folks in Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Tampa can tell you that rebuilding sometimes never happens. After living with the Twins through the 90's, you'd better believe this is something I'm intensely fearful of.
The second plan would cost a lot of money, and I'm not sure that Carl Pohlad would spend much more than that. Sure, we'd have Santana and Mauer locked up, but again, would he want to fork over the cash for Justin Morneau? Michael Cuddyer? Nick freaking Punto? Perhaps not. At least the Twins wouldn't be bad, but they would mirror the team we have now. More or less irrelevant, but still pesky.
The third, unfathomably bad idea would be to trade away our prospects and then let Santana walk away at the end of the year. Think about that. We have no better than a 1 in 30 chance to win the WS this year and we're putting all of our eggs in this basket. The next year without Santana, without those vaunted prospects, we would have a pitching rotation that would have Twins fans clamoring for Rich Robertson.
The worst part is, of course, that the Tigers (who acquired Jacque Jones today) and Indians seem to be at a crest in their ups and downs, and the White Sox are much more capable of spending the money it takes to field a consistent winner. If things go poorly for the Twins, at least we'll have company with the Royals.

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