When a Record is Not Much of a Record + Power Ranks
Happy New Year! With Ryan's feverish posting, I'm surprised I'm doing the first post of 2008, but here it is. Before I get into things, watching the BCS Bowls reminded me of how this whole thing got started, when we decided to make a website where we would post our IM conversations. We're only 4 days away from the 3-year anniversary of the formation of the original Is It Sports? site. If what we talked about on January 5, 2005 holds up, the "Tim Tebow is a future NFL Hall of Famer" supporters should take caution.
There were a lot of new NFL records this season, with Adrian Peterson (the one that wears purple, not the one battling for carries with Garrett Wolfe) breaking the single game rushing record, Brett Favre breaking a number of Marino's career marks, and the Patriots setting all kinds of records, including being the first 16-0 regular season team and breaking the scoring record. The Patriots also set some individual marks. When Tom Brady connected to Randy Moss for the go-ahead touchdown against the Giants, it was Brady's 50th TD pass of the season and Moss's 23rd TD catch, both new single season records....or were they? Brady deserves all of the credit in the world for getting to 50 TDs, a record that looked like it would never be broken when Peyton Manning shattered Dan Marino's record in 2004, but the prestige of Moss's record is a little murky....
The previous single season touchdown record holder was (not surprisingly) Jerry Rice, who had 22 TDs in 1987. Well, unlike some of the previously asterisked MLB records over number of games on the schedule, the NFL began its 16 game schedule in 1978, so its a no brainer that Moss deserves all of the credit right? Not so fast. If you remember back (and I was 4, so I really can't) there was a players strike that year and 1 game was completely canceled, but another somewhat forgotten fact is that the NFL then played the first 3 games of the season with replacement players until the strike was settled and the regular players returned for the 4th game in Week 5. That means that Rice got his 22 TDs in only 12 games, or only in 75% of the number of games that it took Moss to get 23. Now, I've never been a huge fan of the asterisk, but I think it's needed here. Something comparable to this was when Roger Maris broke Babe Ruth's HR record in 1961. Ruth had 60 HR in 154 games and Maris had 61 in 162. In this situation, I don't feel there should have been an asterisk because Maris only played in 5% more games and Ruth's projected 162-game HR total would have been 63, but with later season dryer and cooler weather, and with an average of just under .4 HR a game, there's no telling Ruth would have hit any more homers if he would have had 8 more games. Maris did only have 59 HR through 154 games, but I still feel its debatable who would have had more after 162 games, especially if Maris knew the record was 61 or 62 instead of 60, had Ruth played in 162 games.
The receiving TD situation is really not debatable, though. Rice averaged 1.83 TDs per game for a 13-2 (11-1 with regular starters) 49ers team that mowed down opponents in similar fashion to this year's Patriots. Rice scored a TD in every game that season, and did not even get to benefit from more favorable for passing September weather, so he would have definitely scored 1 or 2 TDs in each of the games he missed. His projected total for that year is 29.3 TD's, or 27.5% more than Moss. Moss only had 17 TD's through 12 games this season, 5 short of the record that Rice set in as many games. At that point of the season, Moss was projected to finish with 22.6 (23) TDs so the projection held true. I think the records should show Moss with the record at 23, especially since 1987 had such unusual circumstances, but Rice should also be listed with an asterisk for himself, indicating he accomplished his feat in only 12 games due to a strike. I think this should be the policy in any sport if a record is set in a strike shortened season and later broken, but not if someone's projected total in a strike shortened season would have broken a record that already stands (like how Matt Williams was on pace for 63 HR in 1994) because you just don't know what would have happened.
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On to the NFL Ranks. Something interesting that happened this week was a lot of teams mailed it in and benched a bunch of starters to rest up for the playoffs. The ranks, of course, do not take this into account. For a BCS style system in college, this isn't an issue because college teams can't afford to take a week off. So, some teams took a hit this week, but I still think these can be looked at heading into the playoffs (I'll continue the ranks through the Super Bowl). The biggest gainers this week were 3 non-playoff teams that finished the regular season relatively strong and have something to build on for next year: Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Houston. The biggest losers were teams that had nothing to play for: New York Giants, Seattle, and Tampa. I am a little confused though as to why Tampa and Pittsburgh took the week off, playoff implications aside, because both teams have been playing like crap lately and could likely be done in the first round this weekend. So if you make picks based on the ranks for this weekend, it looks like #4 Jacksonville over #14 Pittsburgh, #5 San Diego over #8 Tennessee, #7 Washington over #13 Seattle, and #12 Giants over #18 Tampa. I guess we'll see how it turns out, and how much the teams didn't try this week blurred the ranks...
1. Patriots - 83.25 - +1 - AFC #1
2. Colts - 79.82 - -1 - AFC #2
3. Packers - 72.45- +3 - NFC #2
4. Jaguars - 71.03 - Even - AFC #5
5. Chargers - 68.92 - Even - AFC #3
6. Cowboys - 67.48 - -3 - NFC #1
7. Redskins - 67.34 - +3 - NFC #6
8. Titans - 62.76 - +1 - AFC #6
9. Eagles - 61.20 - +5
10. Texans - 59.60 - +5
11. Browns - 59.10 - +5
12. Giants - 56.93 - -5 - NFC #5
13. Seahawks - 54.96 - -5 - NFC #3
14. Steelers - 54.21 - -3 - AFC #4
15. Vikings - 52.68 - -3
16. Bengals - 52.48 - +2
17. Bears - 49.40 - +4
18. Buccaneers - 49.11 - -5 - NFC #4
19. Cardinals - 47.52 - Even
20. Panthers - 45.08 - +2
21. Saints - 43.08 - -4
22. Broncos - 41.18 - +3
23. Lions - 39.18 - Even
24. Bills - 36.79 - -4
25. 49ers - 36.23 - -1
26. Ravens - 34.48 - +3
27. Jets - 31.28 - Even
28. Falcons - 26.86 - +4
29. Raiders - 25.32 - -3
30. Chiefs - 24.47 - Even
31. Dolphins - 23.19 - Even
32. Rams - 21.16 - -4
There were a lot of new NFL records this season, with Adrian Peterson (the one that wears purple, not the one battling for carries with Garrett Wolfe) breaking the single game rushing record, Brett Favre breaking a number of Marino's career marks, and the Patriots setting all kinds of records, including being the first 16-0 regular season team and breaking the scoring record. The Patriots also set some individual marks. When Tom Brady connected to Randy Moss for the go-ahead touchdown against the Giants, it was Brady's 50th TD pass of the season and Moss's 23rd TD catch, both new single season records....or were they? Brady deserves all of the credit in the world for getting to 50 TDs, a record that looked like it would never be broken when Peyton Manning shattered Dan Marino's record in 2004, but the prestige of Moss's record is a little murky....
The previous single season touchdown record holder was (not surprisingly) Jerry Rice, who had 22 TDs in 1987. Well, unlike some of the previously asterisked MLB records over number of games on the schedule, the NFL began its 16 game schedule in 1978, so its a no brainer that Moss deserves all of the credit right? Not so fast. If you remember back (and I was 4, so I really can't) there was a players strike that year and 1 game was completely canceled, but another somewhat forgotten fact is that the NFL then played the first 3 games of the season with replacement players until the strike was settled and the regular players returned for the 4th game in Week 5. That means that Rice got his 22 TDs in only 12 games, or only in 75% of the number of games that it took Moss to get 23. Now, I've never been a huge fan of the asterisk, but I think it's needed here. Something comparable to this was when Roger Maris broke Babe Ruth's HR record in 1961. Ruth had 60 HR in 154 games and Maris had 61 in 162. In this situation, I don't feel there should have been an asterisk because Maris only played in 5% more games and Ruth's projected 162-game HR total would have been 63, but with later season dryer and cooler weather, and with an average of just under .4 HR a game, there's no telling Ruth would have hit any more homers if he would have had 8 more games. Maris did only have 59 HR through 154 games, but I still feel its debatable who would have had more after 162 games, especially if Maris knew the record was 61 or 62 instead of 60, had Ruth played in 162 games.The receiving TD situation is really not debatable, though. Rice averaged 1.83 TDs per game for a 13-2 (11-1 with regular starters) 49ers team that mowed down opponents in similar fashion to this year's Patriots. Rice scored a TD in every game that season, and did not even get to benefit from more favorable for passing September weather, so he would have definitely scored 1 or 2 TDs in each of the games he missed. His projected total for that year is 29.3 TD's, or 27.5% more than Moss. Moss only had 17 TD's through 12 games this season, 5 short of the record that Rice set in as many games. At that point of the season, Moss was projected to finish with 22.6 (23) TDs so the projection held true. I think the records should show Moss with the record at 23, especially since 1987 had such unusual circumstances, but Rice should also be listed with an asterisk for himself, indicating he accomplished his feat in only 12 games due to a strike. I think this should be the policy in any sport if a record is set in a strike shortened season and later broken, but not if someone's projected total in a strike shortened season would have broken a record that already stands (like how Matt Williams was on pace for 63 HR in 1994) because you just don't know what would have happened.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
On to the NFL Ranks. Something interesting that happened this week was a lot of teams mailed it in and benched a bunch of starters to rest up for the playoffs. The ranks, of course, do not take this into account. For a BCS style system in college, this isn't an issue because college teams can't afford to take a week off. So, some teams took a hit this week, but I still think these can be looked at heading into the playoffs (I'll continue the ranks through the Super Bowl). The biggest gainers this week were 3 non-playoff teams that finished the regular season relatively strong and have something to build on for next year: Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Houston. The biggest losers were teams that had nothing to play for: New York Giants, Seattle, and Tampa. I am a little confused though as to why Tampa and Pittsburgh took the week off, playoff implications aside, because both teams have been playing like crap lately and could likely be done in the first round this weekend. So if you make picks based on the ranks for this weekend, it looks like #4 Jacksonville over #14 Pittsburgh, #5 San Diego over #8 Tennessee, #7 Washington over #13 Seattle, and #12 Giants over #18 Tampa. I guess we'll see how it turns out, and how much the teams didn't try this week blurred the ranks...
1. Patriots - 83.25 - +1 - AFC #1
2. Colts - 79.82 - -1 - AFC #2
3. Packers - 72.45- +3 - NFC #2
4. Jaguars - 71.03 - Even - AFC #5
5. Chargers - 68.92 - Even - AFC #3
6. Cowboys - 67.48 - -3 - NFC #1
7. Redskins - 67.34 - +3 - NFC #68. Titans - 62.76 - +1 - AFC #6
9. Eagles - 61.20 - +5
10. Texans - 59.60 - +5
11. Browns - 59.10 - +5
12. Giants - 56.93 - -5 - NFC #5
13. Seahawks - 54.96 - -5 - NFC #3
14. Steelers - 54.21 - -3 - AFC #4
15. Vikings - 52.68 - -3
16. Bengals - 52.48 - +2
17. Bears - 49.40 - +4
18. Buccaneers - 49.11 - -5 - NFC #4
19. Cardinals - 47.52 - Even
20. Panthers - 45.08 - +2
21. Saints - 43.08 - -4
22. Broncos - 41.18 - +3
23. Lions - 39.18 - Even
24. Bills - 36.79 - -4
25. 49ers - 36.23 - -1
26. Ravens - 34.48 - +3
27. Jets - 31.28 - Even
28. Falcons - 26.86 - +4
29. Raiders - 25.32 - -3
30. Chiefs - 24.47 - Even
31. Dolphins - 23.19 - Even
32. Rams - 21.16 - -4
posted by Steve | 10:01 PM
1 Comments:
Interesting stuff, certainly.
In 1927, Ruth had 540 at-bats (and 137 walks, meaning pretty close to 677 plate appearances). In 1961, Maris had 590 at-bats (94 walks, approximately 684 plate appearances).
I'm too lazy to do the math, but couldn't the comparison be made on the number of TD receptions in the final 12 games, also counting the fact that Moss played three more games so more allowance needs to be made for fatigue. I don't know that you should count the stats when the games were played, but Rice didn't play. If he had been hurt those first three games, no one would be arguing... /devil's advocate.
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