Trading Denard Span?

Two things that you know about me, I think. 1) Most recently, I have been a staunch advocate for the Twins SELLSELLSELLing. 2) I am always a advocate of dealing from a place of strength to patch weakness. This was why I particularly liked the Delmon Young deal, even if it hasn't worked quite as well as anticipated. Matt Garza, one of a glut of pitching prospects we had at the time was decidedly not getting along well with the coaching staff. The team didn't have much by way of right handed bats, and Young was coming off a season in which he played all 162 games and was a top flight prospect. Dealt from strength to try and patch weakness.
This season, I have been pleading with the Twins to try and move Jason Kubel. He is one of many outfielders and one of many left handers on the team, and thus doubly expendable. As you have all probably heard by now, the Nationals are asking instead about Denard Span. Span also fits those two categories: outfielder, left handed. Because he is actually a good fielder and not a complete abomination like Kubel, it never crossed my mind that he might be a candidate to be moved.
But alas, the Nationals think he could be. I like Span. I like what he brings to the table as a hitter, a threat on the bases and as a fielder (especially if he was moved to a corner and Revere became the CF). The fact of the matter is, the Twins could get a lot more for Span than Kubel (or Michael Cuddyer).
The rumors I have heard involved Drew Storen, the Nationals closer (ooh boy) and Ian Desmond, their shortstop. Surely this rumored trade would be incomplete, but at least it addresses not one but two holes on the Twins roster: middle infield (and make no mistake... Tsuyoshi Nishioka, as much as I like him, has been terrible) and bullpen (I refuse to say a closer is an important role).
I don't think that those two gaps and those two players are quite enough for Span, only because there is the potential to lose Cuddyer and Kubel next year, as well as Jim Thome, which means there will soon be holes in the outfield, and losing Span would just create another.
So, I guess I would be OK with it if Span was traded, but it surely better be a good deal that patches holes for years to come.

The Chuck Knoblauch trade tree

This doesn't really have anything to do with anything pertinent, but it's a little bit of a cool exercise, if you think like me. It's also fun because now, the Knoblauch and Santana trees are merged. Everyone has pointed to the fact that the Johan Santana trade now is expanded because JJ Hardy (who was acquired for Carlos Gomez who came over in the Santana trade) was moved. But here's how Knobby's trade still affects the Twins.
Knoblauch was traded to the Yankees for Eric Milton, Danny Mota Cristian Guzman and Brian Buchanan.
Guzman and Mota left without a return.
Milton was traded to the Phillies for Nick Punto, Carlos Silva and Bobby Korecky. All have left or will leave via free agency.
Buchanan was traded to the Padres for Jason Bartlett
Bartlett was part of a package (with Matt Garza and Eduardo Morlan) for Delmon Young, Jason Pridie and Brendan Harris.
Young is still on the team, while Pridie was released.
Just yesterday, Harris was packaged with Hardy for relievers Brett Jacobsen and Jim Hoey. The fact that the Knoblauch still affecting the team is really something. Stats are fun.

Twins Trade predicto

Bill Smith has shown to have an itchy trigger finger when compared to Terry Ryan. He is more than willing to execute a big trade, has shown willingness to dish prospects if it helps the current team win that season. He has spun a few off season trades, including the Santana trade, Delmon Young and last seasons JJ Hardy acquisition. The Twins have also shown a reluctance to sign free agents until late in the offseason, hunting for deals. Anyways, the easiest thing to do is to look for what might be a trade that could be executed by the Twins this offseason, rather than figure out what other teams might do, and what scraps might be left over for the Twins to sign. Trades aren't a common occurrence, so here a couple possible matches.
1 - Twins hook up with the Orioles, with Jeremy Guthrie coming to Minnesota for JJ Hardy. It wouldn't be 1 for 1, but the principals are there. Guthrie is a solid, mid rotation starter coming off a good season in Baltimore. The Orioles have their eye on the Twins shortstop, according to many rumors. Both players are earning about the same salary, thought Guthrie is probably worth a bit more.
2 - Another deal that wouldn't be one for one, but could be a good match is one that involves superfluous lefty slugger Jason Kubel for malcontent reliever Jonathan Papelbon. The Twins will be losing at least one big name out of the bullpen, if not more. Probably more. The Red Sox are steadily losing David Ortiz to Father Time and have a ball park that favors lefties, unlike Target Field. Papelbon's one year wouldn't be enough for the Twins to sacrifice Kubel, so expect a right handed bat from Boston, especially if the Twins trade JJ Hardy.
That's it. That's what you can expect if the Twins make any deals. No big names being dealt or acquired, because I don't think the Twins have the players to trade to patch the holes that need patching. But moves will be made, don't fear on that. And don't be surprised if an impact free agent is signed way out in February.

What do the Twins need?

The Twins, at present, find themselves but a half game in front of the Tigers in the American League Central. This can be attributed to many things: bad pitching, bad managing, a lack of depth and most importantly, injuries and the hot streak put together by the Tigers. Seeing as the Twins can't do anything about those two key factors, the injuries and the Tigers, we can only look at the first three options. Many, including the Twins front office don't share the "bad managing" opinion, so we are left with these two problem areas to address: bad pitching and a lack of depth.
The pitching, for the most part, isn't AS bad as everyone thinks. They are 8th in the majors in ERA, and Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn are the two starters with ERAs above 4. Baker, if his last start is an indication, is coming around. Blackburn signed a contract extension, and it's unlikely any moves involving him will be made. The strange hing about all of this is that there haven't been any major injuries on the rotation freeing up a spot. The only way a move gets made is if there is an injury, or if Blackburn goes down with an "injury".
Even if that happens, what do they do? The case has been made that the Twins need a legitimate ace, and not another third starter. The best two on the market are going to be Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt. Lee would be here for three months. Would you want to give up Wilson Ramos for three months of Cliff Lee? Furthermore, there was a proposal on local radio today positing a Slowey/Ramos swap for Lee, which is the most absurd piece of garbage I have heard. Essentially, you are swapping one of the better pitchers in the rotation and the most valuable trading trip for 1 or 2 extra wins. Lee would replace Slowey in the rotation, a net gain of maybe a win or two as I mentioned, and the glaring Blackburn shaped hole would still be there. Add to that the fact that we would be left without Ramos, Slowey and probably Lee for next season. Roy Oswalt would like a contract extension if he gets traded. That in itself is prohibitive. It would all but ensure Carl Pavano and Michael Cuddyer's departure, due to a lack of funds. Great, now Kubel is playing the field, and we're STILL short a man in the bull pen.And that's without discussing who the Astros might want.
The best fit for the Twins might be the Orioles' Jeremy Guthrie, a good young pitcher with a couple of years left. That would certainly entice the Twins to part with some of their top prospects... but the O's have Matt Wieters, and Ramos would be blocked there too. I think that yes, the Twins should try to bolster their rotation, however I think they have their hands tied.
The bullpen is another issue. They will be getting Clay Condrey back eventually, and there are always arms available to pick up an inning or two at the end of games around this time of year. Last year, the Twins picked up Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay, with season saving results. I would be surprised if the Twins didn't manage to add an arm from a team falling apart down the stretch again this year. The Star Tribune has mentioned Michael Wuertz of Oakland as a potential fit. Relatively speaking, bullpen trades are easy.
So too is infield depth. With the injuries to Hudson and Hardy, the stream of crap coming into the lineup from Alexi Casilla to Matt Tolbert to Nick Punto to the not yet ready Trevor Plouffe has been unbearable. It's compounded, of course, by the fact that Gardenhire will always put one of them in the 2 spot when Hudson isn't in the lineup. There are a lot of candidates to take over in the middle infield, and a handful of them are pushed around every summer. With the Cubs looking ready to blow things up, how would Ryan Theriot look in a Twins uniform? I think he would make a good addition, especially if we assume that Danny Valencia will take over at third.
Expect a few trades from the Twins this offseason, as there are some holes that are more easily fixed in the middle of the season. I bet they will make a move for a third baseman, despite the lack of a true need, especially if Mike Lowell is the only option there. Just don't expect a blockbuster this year.

Gomez versus Young

It’s old news by now (I wrote this last Friday, but I assume…) that the Twins traded their fourth-outfielder/center fielder Carlos Gomez the Brewers for shortstop JJ Hardy. This should make my friend E happy. She likes JJ Hardy. That’s neither here nor there, though.

I knew going into the offseason—which sucks, by the way—that the Twins were going to trade either Gomez or left-fielder Delmon Young. Cuddyer was still under contract (and, in fact, the team picked up his option for the 2011 season), and is a bit older and has faced some (freak) injury issues. (I think it’s important to point out the “freak” injuries versus the chronic injuries. Freak injuries involve broken bones/dislocation when something unusual happens. Joe Crede’s back problems are chronic. Michael Cuddyer dislocating his finger, and then having his foot broken while on re-hab is more freakish. Although two dislocated fingers—albeit, different fingers—in one season borders on chronic.) This will bring down his value slightly, and he’s higher valued on the Twins for his clubhouse presence. For a team that is often littered with young, unexperienced players, there is value in veteran leadership. While Joe Nathan is older, he was also traded to the Twins, whereas Cuddyer has only known the Twins, from the draft day forward. Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer have moved out the definition of “young players”, but both have a few years to go until they reach the age of 30. I could keep arguing, but let’s just put it down as a positive that Cuddyer stays. Span is the leadoff hitter the Twins have been waiting for for years. He’s solid defensively (although not quite up to Gomez’s incredible level). Span was staying.

Both Gomez and Young were wanting to be full-time players, but both were young. Both had moments of brilliance, and both had moments of frustration. Gomez was clearly stronger defensively, while Young was not exactly carrying a gold glove—unless it was literally gold—in left field (caveat: many have commented that because of the lights at the Metrodome, left field was the hardest position to play there. I’m not saying that Young is great, but he might be a little better than Minnesota got to see). One of them was going to go. It turned out last Friday to be Gomez to the Brewers.

I think I know why they traded away Gomez rather than Young.*

* Totally kidding. It’s a crack-pot theory that amuses me.

Young came to the Twins in a trade with Tampa Bay. Twins fans know how good Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett have been since leaving Minnesota. (Eduardo Morlan, the final guy the Twins sent to the Devil Rays, is still an unknown quantity.) The pieces that the Twins got in return—Jason Pridie, Delmon Young, and Brendan Harris—have not been up to par. Pridie has not played much with the Twins, but his minor league career does speak about his future as a fourth outfielder. He’s four months older than Delmon Young, but has only 11 major league at-bats (Young has 1,741). We got a solidly average (but cute!) player in Brendan Harris. He’s okay everywhere in the infield (except, perhaps, catching and pitching; I would venture he’d be well below average in those two positions), but nothing that you’d write home to Dad about. So, the Twins traded away a pretty good shortstop and a pretty good pitcher for a couple of average guys and one young unknown. (I still believe Young has a chance to break out. Then again, I’ve believed every year for the last two or three years that the Royals might finally break out of their funk, so take it for what it’s worth.)

Carlos Gomez came to the Twins in a trade with the Mets. Gomez was the centerpiece of the deal for Santana. The Twins just lost Torii Hunter and needed a center fielder. Remember back when Denard Span was a bust and at that point our best option was Pridie (remember how key getting Pridie in that trade was?!) The other guys in the trade include the unknown commodity of Deolis Guerra (who’s not yet 21), Kevin Mulvey (who was mediocre despite my feeling that he’d be the best prospect and later “traded” to the Diamondbacks in a trade of waivered players for Jon Rauch), and Phillip Humber, who was designated for assignment after many poor performances. Really, none of the four players turned out to be anything to write home about (yet). However, with the trading of Gomez, now we can say that Johan Santana was traded for Rauch (who has acquitted himself well for the Twins so far), JJ Hardy (unknown commodity), and the elusive Deolis Guerra. That trade might look better by the end of the 2010 season. We can only hope.

One last, unrelated, thought. Rafael Palmeiro won the first base Gold Glove in 1999—despite playing only 28 games at first base. No one would’ve considered giving Michael Cuddyer a Gold Glove for first base this year…and he played 34 games at first. Of course, Palmeiro had a .996 Fielding Percentage, and Cuddyer had a .986, so clearly he didn’t deserve it.

Timberwolves update: They’re now at 1-8, or a 11.1% winning percentage. As was pointed out in a Twitter post, the fans can relax, because there are only 73 games left this year!

Wild Update: Conversely, the Wild have improved their record to 7-10-0, for a 41.2% winning percentage.