What Should We Take Away from the White Sox Interleague Dominance?

The White Sox finally had their 11 game winning streak broken today at the hands of the hated cross-town rival Cubs, but they also finished up their interleague schedule for 2010. They finished the season an impressive 15-3, only 1 game shy of the all-time interleague record. Also, their interleague dominance this year helped move them from a disappointing season and definite trade deadline seller to right in the heart of the AL Central title race.

So what should we take away from this? I think this season can finish 1 of 2 ways for the White Sox, and there is an interesting precedent that was set for one of the scenarios just a few years ago...

First, let's look at the negative side of this. Before Interleague play started on May 21, the White Sox were in sorry shape, stuck in 4th place with a 16-24 record, 7.5 games back, and seen as a dysfunctional team that had a collection of random disappointing players and a manger and GM that didn't get along. Winning helps solve a lot of these problems, and as mentioned above, they got a lot of wins thanks to interleague play over the past month. The big question is can the winning continue? Thanks to the NL being absolutely awful, the White Sox benefited from a very easy schedule over the past month. They took 2/3 from Florida at home (35-40), 4/6 vs the Cubs (33-42), and swept Pittsburgh (25-49), Washington (33-43), and Atlanta (44-32). They also only went 8-8 against AL teams between the Florida and first Cubs series. You can make the argument that Atlanta was the only really good NL team they faced this year, and they were actually pretty hot themselves when they ran into the Sox buzzsaw. The Sox are now 39-35 and only 1.5 games out of first, but we have to keep in mind that they are 24-32 against the AL, who they will now have to face for their remaining 88 games this year. If they continue their vs.-AL pace for the rest of the season, they'll only finish 77-85 this year.

But....remember how I mentioned above that they were 1 game short of the best interleague record ever? Well, one team that holds that record is none other than the 2006 Twins. In 2006, before interleague play started, the Twins were a very similar 17-24, sitting in 4th place and 10.5 games behind the Tigers, who, along with the White Sox, had an incredible start to the season. The Twins went 16-2 in interleague play and (with some AL games mixed in between as well) were 45-35 by the time interleague play ended on July 2nd. Unlike the White Sox this year, the Twins incredible turn around didn't put them in division contention. They only picked up a half game on Detroit during that stretch. The rules were a little different though. On July 2nd, 2006, Detroit and Chicago had the 2 best records in the majors and both teams had a much better winning percentage than anyone currently in the majors has in 2010. The Twins didn't cool off when AL play resumed though. The momentum that they gained in interleague play carried them through July, August, and September, and they were eventually able to steal away the AL Central title from a fading Detroit on the last day of the season.

So, will the White Sox come back to reality when they face the AL or will they keep their momentum going like the 2006 Twins? One thing in the White Sox favor is that the 2010 Twins and Tigers aren't nearly as good as the 2006 Tigers and White Sox, so they don't need to have the kind of final 3 months that the Twins had to win the division. One piece of relief for Twins fans if the 2nd analogy holds up is that the 2006 Twins were swept in the ALDS while the Tigers, who blew the division, went all the way to the World Series as the Wild Card. But, it's also highly unlikely that the wild card will come from the AL Central this year. And the 2010 Tigers? If they take on the 2006 White Sox role, they should prepare to be disappointed....and they don't even have the fact that they are the defending World Series champs to fall back on...

Counterpoint: When 5 Division Titles in 8 Years isn't Impressive

It's been a while since I've written about baseball on the Times, but as you might know, not everyone on this site is a Twins fan. I'm from Chicago and have liked the White Sox since probably before I was born, if that's possible. The source of a lot of our posts on the original Is It Sports? site was banter back and forth about the Twins and White Sox, and a big reason why Ryan wanted me to join him writing for this site is to occasionally trash the Twins, and be the "heel" for his Minnesota readers. I'm not going to put a lot of emotion into this, just present some facts, because I'm definitely not bitter about last night's game or this season (I hate the Tigers too and I got my World Series this decade).

I heard a lot of people on TV and on the radio tonight throw out the stat that the Twins have won 5 division titles in the last 8 years, and it could have been 6 had they only won the 1-game playoff against Chicago last year. It sounds pretty impressive, but I think in reality the impressive part about the Twins over the past 8 years is their consistency....they are consistently above average. In fact, since they started their run of "above-averageness" in 2001, they have averaged a very respectable 88 wins a year, and have had only 1 losing season.

When you think about it, in some divisions, an 88 or 90 win season could never get you to the playoffs, but the AL Central has been a pretty weak division ever since it was formed. The Central has only had 1 World Series champion and 1 wild card berth since its first full season in 1995, and for the first half of the decade typically had at least 1 team with 100 losses. If you consider a 90-win season as a truly "good" team and not just an above average team, the AL Central has had 10 of them since 2001, while the AL East has had 16, and the 4-team AL West has had 14. The AL East isn't that different from the AL Central in the fact that they typically have had 2 terrible teams each year for the top teams of the division to feast on. However, the AL East is also capable of winning games out of the division, and every champion of that division has had at least 95 wins since 2001, while only 3 AL Central winners have reached that mark in 9 years. Also, 6 out of the last 9 AL Central winners have had a record worse than the AL wild card, and in 3 of those years (this year included) the winner was worse than the team that finished 2nd in the wild card race.

So basically my theory is this: for the last 9 years, the Twins have consistently put up an above average to relatively good season, and if there isn't anyone else in the division that is at least relatively good, they win the division, only to get trounced in the playoffs because they weren't all that good to begin with. Let's briefly run through each season:

2001: The Twins put up their first winning season (85 wins) since 1992 despite talks of the team being contracted, but fall short to the Indians, who win the division with only 91 wins, only to lose to 116-win Seattle in the ALDS.

2002: This was by far the most exciting Twins team of their run this decade. They bucked the contraction talks and surprisingly won the AL Central, and then upset another 00's perennial playoff loser, the A's, in the first ALDS, before being stopped 4-1 by the Angels in the ALCS. The Twins won 94 games that season, their 2nd best of the decade....but had an extremely weak division with 2 100-loss teams and an 81-81 2nd place team behind them.

2003: The Twins win the AL Central again with just 90 wins (15 of them over 119-loss Detroit), 3 games worse than the 2nd place wild card team, Seattle. They take game 1 from the 101-win Yankees in the ALDS, but then score only 3 runs the rest of the series to get bounced 3 games to 1.

2004: The Twins win the AL Central again, this time with 92 wins (same as the Angels, who win the West). No one else in the division is close to them, much like 2002. The Twins put up a better fight against the Yankees, but lose 3 games to 1 in the ALDS again.

2005: The White Sox and Indians rise from mediocrity, which causes the Twins to fall back to 83 wins in 3rd place. The White Sox get the highest win total for the AL Central of the decade with 99 wins, get home field in the playoffs, and only lose once in the playoffs, winning the division's only world series title.

2006: It's another strong year for the AL Central, and the strongest for the Twins. 3 teams win 90 games and the Tigers appear to be the team of destiny for most of the season. The Twins got hot at the end while the Tigers choked, giving the Twins the division title with 96 wins and Tigers the only AL Central wild card spot ever. The Twins carried their momentum right into a 3 game sweep against Oakland, the A's only playoff series win of the decade, while the "downtrodden" Tigers pulled an amazing upset of the Yankees, sweep the mediocre A's in the ALCS, but then lose the World Series to St. Louis.

2007: The Indians put up a 96 win season and win the Central, while the Twins have a losing record. The Indians polish off the Yankees in the ALDS, and take a 3-1 lead in the ALCS before choking it away to Boston. The Indians nearly made it 3 AL Central pennant winners in a row, and none of those were the Twins...

2008: The AL Central is flat out bad, and both the White Sox and Twins win only 88 games before the White Sox take the 1 game playoff to win the division. The White Sox record after 162 games is 1 game worse than the AL wild card 2nd place Yankees. The White Sox lose 3 games to 1 to the surprising Rays...hmm, seems like this would have been a perfect spot for the Twins.

2009: The AL Central is even worse than 2008, with no one seemingly wanting to hang onto first. The Tigers completely blow the division in September, while the Twins catch them to force another 1 game playoff between 2 86-76 teams, 9 games worse than the AL wild card, 1 game worse than the 2nd place AL wild card Rangers, and only 2 games better than the 4th place AL wild card Rays. The Twins win the game, and will face a Yankees team that they finished 17 games behind in the regular season. Good Luck.

So basically, of the 8 teams that made the playoffs from the AL Central since the Twins won the 1st of 5 divisions in 2002:
1 team won it all (White Sox 05)
1 team lost in the world series (Tigers 06)
1 team was a win away from a pennant (Indians 07)
1 team lost an ALCS 4-1 (Twins 02)
3 teams lost an ALDS 3-1 (Twins 03, Twins 04, White Sox 08)
1 team got swept in an ALDS (Twins 06)

So with the exception of last year, which easily could have been the Twins if the 1 game playoff had gone differently, if an AL Central team makes the playoffs other than the Twins, they mean business and will make a legitimate run at the pennant. If no one else in the AL Central is a serious contender, the Twins above average consistency carries them to the playoffs, only to lose without making waves. I was thinking about this heading into the 1-game playoff last year and this is why I was really surprised the White Sox actually won. I have a lot of confidence the Twins will continue this trend starting tonight in New York. So congrats on the 5 division titles in 8 years, Twins, but I bet the White Sox, Indians, or Tigers will be ready the take your playoff spot as soon as they put together a true World Series contender, and hopefully bring some respect back to the division.

Some Random Thoughts

Well, Ryan is off to Alabama, so I, Steve, am back babysitting the Times. After a strong weekend performance last time I kind of fizzled as the week went on, so here are just some random sports thoughts I've had since then. Just for fun, I'm going to use the flower bullet points that every sports site desperately needs to have....

• Beth did a great job breaking down the dollars per win yesterday in her post, and I'm glad she pointed out that even though they spent the most, my team, the White Sox, are the lone AL Central team to win a World Series since the AL Central was formed in 1994. I've actually been keeping track of something similar to the numbers she presented (with more math...have you seen my NFL Power Ranks?) but I've never actually done a post on it even though I've been meaning to for over 3 years. Maybe I'll finally get it done before this season starts...

• We're finally getting closer to getting out of the low point of the year for sports. After the Super Bowl, there isn't much going on unless you're infatuated with All-Star games, like NASCAR, or are obsessed with regular season basketball and hockey. Even this weekend, the conference tourneys have finally started, but its all the mid-majors. All that really does is give ESPN a reason to show even more Quinnipiac-Monmouth match-ups because a lot of their employees went to schools like that....

• Speaking of mid-majors, is it possible that some line has been crossed where they are now overrated? It seems like Gonzaga and George Mason ruined it for everyone. Everyone is looking for the next team to make a decent run in the NCAA, and now its showing up in the top 25 rankings. 2 weeks ago, #18 Drake beat #8 Butler in a bracket buster game here in Indy. My question, basically, is how did they get so high? Sure they don't have many losses, but those losses are to teams like Wright State, Bradley, and Missouri State. Looking at schedules alone, I would have said Butler is the better team because their 2 conference losses to Wright State and Cleveland State are to teams with pretty good records, and they beat Ohio State pretty bad at home, but OSU is only 4-8 on the road and a fringe tourney team. Drake was the first ranked team they played all season, and they lost at home. How exactly do people think they're the 12th best team in the country? Drake is ranked #21. Their most impressive match-up before Butler may have been St. Mary's, a WCC team with only 5 losses....but they lost to them. They beat Iowa, but everyone beats Iowa. I would have thought that the past few years when Gonzaga got a much higher seed than they deserved and got dumped early would teach the pollsters a lesson, but I guess not. We'll see how they do this year.

• Caught up in the mix of the Favre retirement, Warren Sapp quietly retired on the same day. Favre and Sapp were considered "rivals" in the old NFC Central, so it was fitting. What's my take on it? Well, I'm a 49ers fan, so I will never forgive Sapp for trying to tear Jerry Rice's head off in one of the most blatant face mask penalties of all time on opening day of the 1997 season, which caused Rice to plant his foot awkwardly and tear up his knee. That '97 team was good enough to be Super Bowl champs, but that was a huge setback they never could really recover from. So good riddance, Warren, and I hope that video surfaces when it's your turn to be voted on for the Hall of Fame. The guy whose career you tried to end has nothing to worry about when it's his.
  

What's the deal with the Royals?

The other day, Steve and I were chatting about the current state of the AL Central (he has Octavio Dotel fever). The Tigers seem to be scary, adding Edgar Renteria, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. They don't seem to have any obvious holes, except maybe in the outfield, and now have a young 300 pound superstar. Sure, they mortgaged their future, but when the Tigers suck in 4-5 years again, at least they will have some good playoff runs to look back on.
The Indians haven't really done anything, and why should they have? They have a solid young core that won the division last year (only a year later than I anticipated) and are only getting better.. They may be the best team in baseball that nobody talks about.
The White Sox, the team giving Steve the fever, have quietly been stockpiling some young talent as well, to go along with some of their veterans. They added Orlando Cabrera, Nick Swisher and Carlos Quentin to the team and will likely be scoring 8 runs a game, which is good, because they will give up about as many. How long until the pitching squad is addressed on the South Side?
Then there are the Twins who have made a few interesting acquisitions, namely the Matt Garza for Delmon Young swap. Who saw that coming? It addresses a primary concern for the Twins. They can't hit. They also signed a third baseman and a slick fielding shortstop to replace Jason Bartlett in Mike Lamb and Adam Everett. It's nice to see a GM who addresses issues instead of hordes prospects. There still is the big gorilla in the room, Johan Santana, who will probably be traded before Spring Training. That could change everything.
But what about the Royals? I've heard their name brought up in rumors regarding anyone from Torii Hunter to Bartolo Colon. Interesting. I didn't think the Royals were just one player away, or that a couple of veterans would suddenly catapult Kansas City into contention. Are they? After closer inspection of the Royals roster, I have discovered that, in fact, no, they are nowhere near contention. Even with Jose Guillen. Their pitching staff is anemic. They have Gil Meche and Brett Tomko as veterans, and Brian Bannister and Zach Greinke as up and coming starters, but are totally devoid of a bullpen. Besides. Brett Tomko? Seriously? On the offensive side, they have all manner of vaunted prospects, like Alex Gordon, Mike Teahen and John Buck, but they never seem to work out. The Royals have innumerable holes.
So why are they working so hard to patch them? In my opinion, it would make more sense to develop and KEEP young talent, rather than trade it for younger talent. It makes more sense that they should try to show that it's ok to stay in Kansas City. Don't be offering up David Dejesus. Try to keep him.
But what do I know? Dayton Moore is apparently a good GM, and to convince David Glass that they should be spending money is certainly a feat in itself, but I wonder if he's not doing so a little recklessly.