Thursday, February 18, 2010

Joe Mauer

Rick Anderson announced that, based on his performance at the end of the year last year, Scott Baker would be Opening Day starter. Those who follow Scott Baker closely—which is probably limited to me—will recall that this is the third year in a row Mr. Baker has been designated the Opening Day starter for the Twins. Those keeping track at home will recognize that Mr. Baker has yet to make an Opening Day start for the Twins, due to injury and then illness (2008) and injury (2009). I hope his injury issues are now over, and he will be able to start Opening Day for the Twins for years to come.

Probably one of the bigger minor stories in baseball this off-season is the status of Minnesota Twins catcher Joe Mauer. I say minor, because the story is mainly whether he’ll get a contract extension. His current contract is set to run out the end of this year. I didn’t think it was that big of a story. Certainly it bears some monitoring by the local media—teams aren’t likely to let a player like Mauer walk in free agency, not when they can get more than a couple of draft picks by trading him, so they’re likely to work out a contract before the season starts, or trade him before the season starts. So, what’s the status? Hard to say. The Twins are usually quite silent on these grounds, and Mauer’s agent is also the type to keep the battle from happening in the public sphere. Nonetheless, I know that when the Colorado paper publishes (online) a blog post dreaming about Joe Mauer, it’s bigger news than I thought.

Brent Briggeman writes “Think about it, the small-market Twins haven’t had any luck signing their hometown superstar to a long-term deal.”

He’s partially right. The Twins, despite increased revenue from being in their own stadium, are not a big market team. They will not have the resources of the Red Sox or the Yankees. However, I would argue that the new stadium does move them out of the confines of “small-market” to more of a mid-market team. They’re still going to have to watch the budget, and depend heavily on scouting and drafting (and trading the right players at the right time for the right prospects), but the days of not being able to afford much other than other team’s cast-offs are mostly over.

But the Twins haven’t always depended on rookies and cast-offs entirely.

Brad Radke stayed his entire career in Minnesota; he may not have been a super-star, but he was in the Cy Young voting and sought after by big market teams (the Red Sox reportedly made him a nice offer in 2004, the year he signed his last contract with the Twins), but chose to stay in Minnesota. That wouldn’t be done if the contracts weren’t fair. Joe Nathan is considered one of the elite closers in the league, and he’s been under contract by the Twins since he became a star. Justin Morneau won the MVP in 2006, and is under contract for what would be considered his prime years. And while it’s almost 20 years old, the Twins did keep around a pretty good center fielder by the name of Kirby Puckett. (In the 90s, they had few guys worth keeping around, so there is a dearth of superstar contracts by default.) In short, they’re pointing out that the Twins weren’t willing to pay either Johan Sanatana (who wanted to pitch in a bigger theater than Minnesota anyway) or Torii Hunter (whom the Twins did make a reasonable offer to, but the Angels made a longer one—one that many feel that the Angels may live to regret towards the end). I wouldn’t say that they haven’t had any luck signing any of their superstars. It’s just that they’ve lost two.

Secondly, the proposed offer that the writer brings up is for a top pitching prospect, a top catching prospect, and an infielder. The Twins got four prospects out of Santana—a pitcher who can only play once every five games--so I really can’t see them coming away with less prospects for Mauer—a player who can play three out of four games.

Now, it’s crazy to think that the Twins would make a trade of this caliber without a pitching prospect being included, so that part of the proposed offer makes sense (and no doubt this would also include a lower-level pitching prospect, too, because that’s often the Twins style as well). Middle infield is presently a concern for Minnesota, so that makes sense. A team can always use more catchers, although that’s not a present need of the Twins (immediate need, sure, but they have a couple of strong prospects in lower levels). But the need the Twins presently have is major-league-ready outfield prospects. I don’t know if the Rockies have any of those, but the Twins right have now have Jason Kubel as their back-up outfielder. If Denard Span ends up ill or injured, the Twins are faced with deciding between Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young, and Nick Punto in center field—or calling up Jacque Jones. If that doesn’t scare you, you’re probably not a Twins fan.

But none of that is the main problem I see with this proposal. In the first place, Joe Mauer wants to win. He’s going to consider the team that gives him the best chance to win. The Rockies and Twins will probably have similar payrolls from here on out. If the problem the Twins might be facing is having one player eat up ¼ (or more) of their payroll and therefore not being able to surround him with other high-caliber players to support winning, the Rockies will face the same problem. The advantage of him staying in Minnesota is that his grandparents can still attend every home game; Colorado would have to bring something else to the table. (I’m not saying that Mauer will base his decision on his grandparents’ ability to watch him play, but rather all things being equal, that would be a deciding factor.)

It’s not a bad article. People like to dream. It would be fun for me to dream how Tim Lincecum could be a Twin. But that doesn’t mean it’s based in reality.

Timberwolves update: They have a 0-3 record since I last reported. They’re now at 13-42, or a 23.6% winning percentage. The have the worst record in the West, but New Jersey has the worst record in the NBA, 5-49.

Wild Update: The Wild have a 30-27-4 record, for a 49.2% winning percentage. Both their goalies are back in health! They’re now on Olympic break, and have five players in the Olympics. The Finns (Mikko Koivu, Antii Mietinen, and Niklas Backstrom) beat Belarus 5-1—Koivu had three assists. The Czechs (Martin Havlat and Merek Zidlicky) beat the Slovaks (former Wild Marian Gaborik and Pavol Demitra

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