Previewing the Twins Part 2

Yesterday, we looked at the Twins on offense, but there are clearly more question marks in the pitching rotation. Right now, it looks like the Twins are going to go with a rotation like this.

1 Livan Hernandez
2 Francisco Liriano
3 Scott Baker
4 Boof Bonser
5 Kevin Slowey

It's a very young rotations with a big dose of Livan Hernandez. I don't think there is such thing as a small dose of Livan Hernandez. But I digress. Then, there is the exceptionally talented Francisco Liriano and his injury concerns. The strength of the rotation could eventually come from the back end, with three guys who have at least made the starts the past seasons and are young enough that they are improving. This could end up either very good or very bad.
Livan Hernandez has historically given up a lot of home runs but at the same time struck out a lot of dudes. In fact, that's the way Johan Santana operated while with the Twins. Of course, Hernandez gives up more home runs and strikes out fewer guys than Santana, but with a slick fielding outfield and a manager that won't let him get to 200 innings, we may see some of Livans stats improve. Or, he could continue regressing and make us all wonder if he was just signed to take the "token overweight Hispanic pitcher" mantle from Carlos Silva.
People always say that after teams get a good look at a pitcher, particularly one as filthy as Francisco Liriano, they start catching up, making him more human. But what happens when they ee him for half a season, then have him take a year off? What happens then? If Liriano truly is healthy and has his stuff back, I figure Liriano to be electric and bewildering, If Liriano isn't healthy and needs to spend time on the DL, the Twins may need to consider signing Jeff Weaver. Speaking of bewildering.
In his first real, full season with the Twins, the pride of Shreveport, Scott Baker seemed to have the stars align. He's not a power pitcher for Liriano, instead relying on control and his brain. Therefore, his true ceiling may not even be realized this year as maturity will be a great asset to him. I suspect he will only be better, with an ERA near 4. Not bad for a third starter.
Boof Bonser is not matched in skill at pitching by skill in being named like, as well as looking like a porn star. In his first full season with the big league roster, he demonstrated a bit of a loss in control, and as a result, his number suffered. Perhaps getting in shape will help out this season. I mean, it can't be good pitching to that first batter winded from the trot from the dugout.
I expect Kevin Slowey to regress a bit this year. He'll have that "opponents figuring him out" problem, but he, like Baker, will only improve with time. I expect an ERA near 5, but we all need to realize that that's OK and not be too hard on him. He's terribly young, and will be the 5th starter. It's going to be OK.
The Twins have the 4 spots in the bullpen with names pretty well handled. Long relief? Matt Guerrier = long relief. Pat Neshek = Set up man. Joe Nathan = Closer. Dennys Reyes = LOOGY. Other than that though, I'm not completely sold on the pen. Juan Rincon is getting progressively shaky. Jesse Crain had more issues than Liriano. Glenn Perkins has some lingering injury concerns. That being said, the best plan of action out of the bullpen is to TRADE JOE NATHAN. The closer role is so ridiculously exaggerated by traditionalists (which, sadly the Twins front office appears to be) that Nathan is sure to pull in more than he is worth, the opposite of a certain other pitcher we recently traded. Neshek can certainly move into the closers role. Everyone will be happy. Especially me, and I'm self centered.

Thats the rotation. Theres a bit of a basketball tournament forthcoming, and I want to get to talking about that tomorrow, but we'll look at the Twins place in the rest of the league, as well as the rest of the league itself starting Monday.