Prepare for the Kevin Slowey show

I have been saying for a while that Kevin Slowey, a fly ball pitcher with a great K/BB ratio would have been a great addition to the Twins rotation last year, especially when the aggressively terrible Nick Blackburn held down a spot, and the underqualified Brian Duensing also managed to crack the opening day rotation. Slowey was branded as a bad influence on the team and a malcontent because he was smart enough to realize that moving him to the bullpen was a terrible thing for the Twins as a team and Slowey as a professional.
Well, you don't question the dumbass decisions Ron Gardenhire or the front office make without repercussions. Because old people with money are the principle source of revenue (see: season ticket holders in the really pricey seats) and they tend to listen to people like Sid Hartman and Jim Souhan, rather than stone cold logic or facts, there was no way that Slowey was ever going to be accepted as a valuable member of the Twins organization. So, Slowey was getting forced out.
To make the humiliation complete, the Twins sent him to Colorado, the place where flyball pitchers go to die. It looks like the Twins, in their bullheaded attempt to crush any insubordination had won this battle.
Alas, this was not to be. First off, let's point out that Kevin Slowey, given the chance to play against the AL Central and his away games at places like Detroit, Minnesota and Kansas City will be very successful. He has a decent outfield behind him which should bring down his BABIP, and he will start in the rotation, meaning no transition to the bullpen to throw off his chi.
Also, another aside from the whole Slowey fiasco. The Twins drove Slowey's value down to the point that all they could get was a never going to make it reliever. With a nominal some of cash, Slowey was sent to the Indians for Cleveland's 10th best prospect (according to Baseball America), Zach Putnam, a guy who is expected to join the bullpen right away. Colorado didn't drive down the value, despite having 35 starting pitchers on the roster, including Jamie fricking Moyer.
So, bang up job all around, Twins front office.

The Twins are making a mistake

I have railed continuously on the Twins and their offense. Ever since Terry Ryan skipped town and Bill Smith arrived, (not to mention the help of a lot of money) things have changed for the better offensively. Of course, where Ryan excelled, defense, the Twins have languished. I understand and appreciate both of these aspects of baseball fairly well from a statistical standpoint.
I don't understand pitching as well, but I do understand how it relates to the defense behind you, or rather, how defense affects pitching. With that introduction, I am fully confident in saying that the Twins are making a terrible mistake with their rotation.
I have long stated that Scott Baker is terribly underrated by the Twins, thanks in large part to the fact that his pitching style doesn't jive well with the team defense. His FIP, a fielding independent pitching, is on par with Carl Pavano and over his career was demonstrably better than Brad Radke. Radke and Baker were and are both fly ball pitchers (though Baker is slightly more so) and Baker has been MORE consistent, actually, than Radke ever was in his career, thought Radke had better individual seasons. The difference? Torii Hunter. Jacque Jones. When they left, Scott Baker's numbers started to skyrocket, but the numbers HE could control didn't get any worse. Things like his batting average for balls in play went way up, especially last year in the cavernous outfield at Target Field, with Jason Kubel designated to try to chase things down. But I'm not here to talk about Baker, because he has a spot in the rotation.
No, I'm here to talk about Kevin Slowey, who was cost a spot in the rotation for many of the same reasons that Baker's numbers are suffering. Slowey FIP is very similar to Bakers, except for a tough season in 2009 (even though he was 10-3, proving that W-L isn't a good measure of a pitcher) but he never had the benefit of pitching with Hunter in the outfield, so his classic numbers have never been as good as Baker's. The difference is that Slowey has better control but is more skewed towards a flyball pitcher, which compounds hings for him with the miserable outfield in Minnesota. His BABIP has always been way higher than league average thanks to the flyball issue, and he looks a lot worse than he performs.
Of course, now he is out of a spot in the Twins rotation, and the Twins are looking, perhaps, to trade him. While this is certainly the best for Slowey (and perhaps the best the Twins if there are no plans to improve the outfield defense) I would like to see the Twins do something to improve his value, other than putting him in the bullpen. Sure, the team may suffer, but at least scouts will see what he can do. I feel like he will be traded for a lot less than he is worth, and then succeed on a team that can play the outfield and everyone will sour on the Twins front office.
And really, who are we keeping in the rotation ahead of him? Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing wouldn't start for many other teams in the league. Blackburn has the contract, and I'm sure the team feels beholden to starting him. He doesn't strike anyone out, his control got away from him as walks are concerned as well last season, and when people do hit him, they hit him hard. Duensing is much more acceptable for a strictly baseball perspective. He actually puts together the same kind of FIP as Baker and Slowey, but throws to a lot more ground balls, which is the way to succeed in Minnesota. Still, he is bound to regress this year, as he outperformed that FIP by a full run, and his walks are bound to catch up with him eventually.
To conclude, the Twins are making a mistake having Slowey in the bullpen. In the long run, trading him is likely the only scenario that makes sense, because with the Twins outfield geared towards offense, he won't succeed here. Still, it would be nice if we weren't counting on Nick Blackburn as a long term solution in his stead. How to fix it short term? Maybe have Ben Revere on the roster for a month or two, have him play when Slowey is on the mound. I don't know if this is feasible though, but there has to be something.

Jim Souhan, WTF

... is your problem with Delmon Young? I was all ready to piss and moan about the Twins, call Gardenhire a loser, all that, but then Jim Souhan presented his 6 things the Twins need to do to retool. Let me be the first to tell you, it is an unrelenting pile of....
Why don't I just break this down, FJM style? (but less funny and more angry)

They must alter their team chemistry and organizational philosophies to better enable them to compete against powerhouse teams in the playoffs

Sounds like Souhan wants the manager out! So long, Gardenhire!

Here are my point-by-point recommendations on how to react in the wake of the Twins' most embarrassing playoff loss in recent history:

I can't wait! We're already off to a good start!

1. DON'T BLAME THE MANAGER

Sh*t


If Gardenhire has a relevant flaw, it's that he is highly emotional and intense

And he's a poor tactician. And his teams come out flat in the playoffs. And he's a little overweight. Oh, sorry, that's not relevant.


Some of the greatest managers of all time enjoyed limited postseason success. Atlanta was right to revere Bobby Cox despite his team's playoff failures, and Minnesota should regard Gardenhire similarly.

Bobby Cox's postseason record: 65-63. Gardenhire: 6-21. Also, Cox has a World Series ring and 5 NL pennants, which is 1 more World Series ring and 5 more pennants than Gardenhire has. Cox has been to the World Series almost as many times as Gardenhire has won a postseason game. So, if Souhan means "Minnesota should regard Gardenhire similarly if they only care about how many times he gets ejected from baseball games," then I totally agree,

2. ACQUIRE POWER ARMS

Agreed.

The teams that have beaten the Yankees in the postseason -- the 2001 Diamondbacks with Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson, the 2002 Angels with their power bullpen, the 2003 Marlins with Josh Beckett, the 2004 Red Sox with Schilling and Pedro Martinez, the 2006 Tigers with Justin Verlander, etc. -- were able to strike out the Yankees' best hitters in the biggest situations.

Wait, you aren't going to base all of your strategy on beating the Yankees in one series are you? You're not about to propose some sort of ass-minded trade in order to acquire a pitcher that would probably lead to the Twins not making the postseason, in the attempt to beat the Yankees IN the postseason, are you?

Delmon Young is at his highest value, and the organization is down on Kevin Slowey. Could they offer those two plus a prospect and swing a trade for Zack Greinke? 

Dammit.

That might not be possible, but it's the right way to think. 

Delmon Young is the best right handed hitter on the team that plays in a stadium that favors right handed hitters. Kevin Slowey, when healthy, is a serviceable back of the rotation pitcher . You could trade Delmon Young alone for Greinke... if the Royals would be willing to take on Young and his salary for one season. They certainly wouldn't tkae Young AND Slowey. They would LOVE those prospects, though. And besides, the Twins next year, and listen very closely, will be BETTER with Young and Slowey than they would without those two and with Greinke on the roster.
Young led the team in RBI (BS statistic, I know) but was the top HR hitter from the right side of the plate, and had an OPS of .826, (between Vlad Guerrerro and Carlos Quentin, btw), and is still under team control for another year or two. you, Jim Souhan, are the only person I know that thinks that Young should be traded, let alone as part of a package for Zack Greinke.
Slowey, on the other hand, is being plagued by a very high BAbip, which is indicative of bad luck, and WILL be better next year, no matter what your gut tells you.
So in summary, Mr. Souhan, no, trading Young Slowey and a prospect is decidedly NOT the way to think.


3. GET YOUNGER AND FASTER

The impression this offseason is that the Twins need to cut payroll, which means that the team will get younger. Faster? Who cares.

Facing a Yankee team with a weak-armed catcher in Jorge Posada, the Twins found themselves with only one starter who could run, center fielder Denard Span.

Oh right, rebuilding the entire team is focused exclusively on defeating the Yankees, never mind that with your plan, the Twins would be about 14 games behind the Royals, who now have Delmon Young and Kevin Slowey.

While Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy were comforting because of their sure hands and experience, by the end of the year neither had produced much offensively or shown range in the field. The Twins, who won't be able to afford bringing everyone back, should get younger, cheaper and faster up the middle.

Orlando Hudson is 32 and coming off a Gold Glove season. JJ Hardy is 28 (if that's old, then I'm screwed) and hit ,300 with 4 HRs over the last month of the season. But you know, facts.

One possibility is starting Alexi Casilla at short and Luke Hughes at second, with Trevor Plouffe and Matt Tolbert waiting their turn.

/Cough cough choke

Casilla would give them speed and range and would produce more runs than Hardy. Hughes would lack range but add pop to the lineup.

So wait, you are troubled by the lack of range, but want to add Hughes who you say would lack range? And his "pop" involves 10 home runs at triple A. And the whole "runs produced" idea that you cite with Casilla? Yeah, runs are essentially produced by the hitters behind you, since they have to, you know, drive you in. The only time you would have created a run solely by yourself is if you hit a home run, which Casilla doesn't do. Casilla would need someone with a big bat behind him to create a run, like Delmon Young.

Oh wait.

Hudson won't be back. Hardy will be only if he's willing to take a large pay cut.

This is from his 4th point, which is to be smart about free agents, and I generally agree with this. The only thing I have to say is that Hardy is arbitration eligible, so his salary is likely to be unchanged, or at the very least increase slightly. Anyways, no way he gets a pay cut.

5. BRING BACK JIM THOME

Yeah OK. You always start so good, but right now you have Luke Hughes starting at second and Delmon Young taking the Royals to the World Series.

The Twins might have to overspend to keep Jim Thome.

So so so so so.... wait a minute. Wait. Just a minute. Hold on. So.... You want to let go of JJ Hardy for nothing to get his payroll off the books even though he is an above average fielder and power from an unusual spot in the defensive outfield (AND HE BATS RIGHTY), but you advocate overpaying for Jim Thome? Jim "one of 15 lefties on the team" Thome? Jim "will have to split time with Jason Kubel" Thome? Oh right, Delmon Young is gone, so the all lefty line up can play all the time. You're right. No problems here!

6. CROSS YOUR FINGERS

.... and hope nobody listens to you.

What do you think of Slowey now?

While I among of Ron Gardenhire's most outspoken critics, I feel that my credibility would be ruined if I didn't state when I actually agreed with his moves. His faults lie in game to game strategy, development of young hitters, favoritism, bullpen management, and a menagerie of other flaws, but one of his greatest strengths is his insistence on protecting his players from injury. Justin Morneau has been kept out of the lineup because of concussions concerns, and yesterday Gardenhire pulled Kevin Slowey, fresh off an elbow induced missed start in them middle of a no hitter thanks to his high pitch count.
It was a very tough decision, no doubt, but one that was absolutely the correct one to be made. The best part was that he acknowledged the situation. Gardenhire stated that he "would have booed him too" for pulling Slowey in the middle of the no-no, indicating that he struggled with the decision. It was one he made with the health of Kevin Slowey in mind, and it's impossible to argue with it.
Oh, and all you that were in favor of knocking Slowey out of the rotation, or trading him to Seattle in order to get Cliff Lee... still feel the same? We're going to have Slowey now for a few more years, thanks in part to Smith not trading him and Gardy being unwilling to ruin his arm in an effort to gain a mere statistic.