Monday, December 12, 2011

What do the Twins care less about, winning or you?



The Twins had three free agents going into the winter meetings, and if I were to rank them in order of fan popularity, it would look like this:
Cuddyer
Kubel
Capps.
Those same three in order of how much they would help the Twins next year:
Kubel
Cuddyer
Capps
And lastly, the value in those three signing with another team (because of the draft pick to value ratio):
Capps
Cuddyer
Kubel

So basically, there was, in my opinion, no good reason for the Twins to re-sign Matt Capps. He was not popular with fans, and the draft picks he would have garnered would likely have been more important than having a closer. Michael Cuddyer is extraordinarily popular, and has a few tools in his toolbox. I can't understand why, if the Twins were dead set on sacrificing draft compensation, they did it for Capps to little advantage instead of Cuddyer. Of course, Cuddyer hasn't made his decision yet, but the Twins actually have a back up plan and a lowball offer, so the Twins have made it clear he isn't a priority.
I have no comment yet on Kubel, because I can't get a feel for the market for him, or the Twins intentions. But so far, the Twins are confusing me.

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Friday, July 22, 2011

What to do with Jason Kubel


Jason Kubel is back in the lineup tonight, and I am surprised that his situation hasn't been addressed to this point by the media or fans. His arrival puts a serious crimp in the roster, simply because there are too many players at the same position.
It isn't an issue yet, not until Denard Span comes back. Can you imagine the uproar should the Twins ship Ben REvere back to Rochester? Or keep him on the bench every day? Obviously, the Jim Souhan's and Nick Nelson's of the world want nothing more than to see Delmon Young dumped on the street (despite factual evidence that proves he is a better hitter in the 2nd half, and further objective analysis that Young's fielding is well above average this season).
All right, so Kubel is in the lineup now, which means a marked decrease in defense in right field. There is no doubt that Ben Revere's arrival has coincided with an improvement to the pitching staff's ERA as more flyballs were caught. He doesn't belong in the outfield, not when Ben Revere and Denard Span are there. Further, what happens when Justin Morneau is there? Then you put Cuddyer back in the outfield (though he isn't a great fielder anymore either), or do you try to juggle those three between 2 positions? Or have a nightmare outfield of Cuddyer, Kubel and Span? You can't move one to the DH, not with Thome there. And Mauer is moving to first regularly. And Plouffe is playing first frequently as well.
Basically, in a short while, we are going to have Young, Kubel, Span, Revere, Plouffe, Morneau, Mauer, Thome, Jason Repko, and Cuddyer competing for essentially left field, right field first base and DH.
Something has to give.
I have another issue with that order, beyond the fielding. Target Field has proven to be a deathtrap for all lefties not named Jim Thome. Kubel, Span, Revere, Morneau, and Mauer are all left handed. I think the only thing to do is to alleviate the lefthanded, outfield logjam in the hopes that it will bring some pitching back to the team. Kubel is a free agent after this season and likely won't ever be as valuable as he is now. I suggest, as I have suggested for about two seasons now, we trade Kubel, not as sellers, but in some sort of lateral move.
The Pirates are in contention this season, and should be doing all they can to go for the NL Central title this year. Their offense is woeful, and could use a dose of power to help move Andrew McCutchen around the bases. Kubel is a cheap, powerful bat that would fit well into the Pirates lineup. The Blue Jays have relievers that may be tantalizing to the Twins. Not only that, but the Pirates could certainly move a prospect to the Jays (or two). Want to make this a bigger move? How about including Kevin Slowey as well, and getting a greater return?
On top of that, I think Revere is proving that he isn't ready to hit at the MLB level. I think he could find his swing with time back in Rochester when Span and Morneau come back. Undoubtedly, something has to give, and it will likely not be something that everyone is going to be happy with.

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Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Trade High!


One thing my dad and I noted about the Twins when we were at the game on Sunday is how the Twins turned it around when they lost the hero of the first couple of months, Jason Kubel. In fact, Kubel went down on May 30th. Since the beginning of June, the team has gone 14 and 3, the best record in baseball.
The offense got better because it almost had to. Players that were struggling are starting to hit, and that's no doubt a major component to the team's success. More to do with the success, however, is the improved pitching staff. There have been two 1-0 wins in the past week. That says pitching a lot more than it says offense.
One thing that dramatically improved for the rotation was the walk rate, which is entirely the doing of the pitching staff. Something that also drastically improved is the batting average for balls in play. After having a BABIP of .291 (which is still around league average) through the first 2 months of the season. With Ben Revere or Jason Repko or Michael Cuddyer having to play the outfield, it is down to .271. Fewer hits and fewer walks lead to better pitching and more wins. More specifically, Scott Baker, one of the biggest fly ball pitchers the team has has seen his BABIP drop from .329 in May to .268 in June.
So what am I saying? The Twins offense, if playing well, doesn't need Kubel. The Twins defense (and by extension, the pitching staff) is much, much better without Kubel.
I don't have anything against Kubel, I really don't. He is having his best season in his career, it's a walk year, and frankly, he just doesn't fit. Target Field is doom for left handed bats, and the team has nothing but. He isn't good in the field, and there are players in the system who are. He can definitely be a great addition for someone out there, and I hope he is. And I hope he brings back a little depth.

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Saturday, April 18, 2009

The least likely cycle ever

Let's just look at Jason Kubel's cycle again, in all it's majesty. What is more unexpected... a Grand Slam to cap it, or Jason Kubel hitting a stand up triple? The natural cycle, capped with a Grand Slam. Incredible.

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Friday, December 26, 2008

Jason Kubel is eminently tradeable


I've been sitting on this lately. I didn't want to mention it because with the Christmas holiday, it was a time for togetherness and love. Now that Christmas is over, I'm going to bitch about it.
From LENIII at the Star Trib:
Haven’t heard anything new about their interest in the Cubs’ Mark DeRosa. For the Twins to land DeRosa, they probably would need a third team involved because the Cubs need a left-handed hitting outfielder and the Twins’ aren’t moving Jason Kubel
Now, I understand not wanting to trade Kubel for DeRosa. DeRosa wouldn't seem to be much return for a young slugger like Kubel. The problem I have is the insinuation that the Twins aren't willing to trade Kubel period. In my opinion, Kubel should be the MIST tradeable asset the Twins have.
Let's review:
Left handed slugger on a team that, if the roster stands as is, will have 5 other players that can bat from the left side. And those are the starters.
Mediocre fielding outfielder in a line up that has no intention of playing Denard Span every day, and one of the few righties, Delmon Young, in left when the manager doesn't want him in the field.
A still manageable contract.
In summary, as spare parts go, Kubel is the sparest. Not to mention that, he has talents that could be enticing to prospective trade partners, as well as the youth and contract that are often valuable commodities these days. It astounds me, really, that Kubel isn't involved in more rumors.

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Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Jason Kubel?

If someone had told me Jason Kubel would have been keying the offense to vital late season victories at the beginning of the year, I would have called that person crazy. After all, he was most notable before this season for running 13 minute miles and looking like Jack Black's ugly younger brother. But here we are. Go Twins.

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