NFL Power Ranks: Conference Championships

Well, we're officially at the half-way point of the NFL pre-Super Bowl media circus, and I'm doing my best as usual to avoid it. I have literally steered clear of all sports channels for the past week, except to watch the occasional old NFL Films Super Bowl highlights video, and I even went to my first NBA game in 2 years on Thursday (Suns vs. Mavericks).

Let me start off by saying I love this Super Bowl matchup, this is the first Super Bowl in a long time where I won't be heavily rooting against a team because I don't like them. This is the matchup everyone has waited all season to see, and these 2 teams held the top 2 spots in my rankings for almost the entire season. One one side, you have the Colts, who are just all around good guys and definitely to "good guys" in the rivalry against the evil patriots over the past few years. On the other side, you have the Saints, who are making their first appearance after a history of being truly awful at everything. They are playing for a city which was devastated by a hurricane 5 years ago, and their quarterback, Drew Brees, is another great guy (and Purdue alum). New Orleans has never won a championship in any major professional sport.

So how did the conference championship games affect the ranks? the Colts win kept them at #1, while the Jets loss dropped them 4 spots back to #7. The Saints win catapulted them 5 spots to #3 and the Vikings loss dropped them 1 spot to #5. As a result of the games, The Cowboys moved up to #4 ahead of the 2 title game losers but fell behind the Saints. The Packers dropped a spot to fill the void left by the the Saints as they moved up, and due to weird strength of schedule changes, the Broncos and Bears, and Redskins and Chiefs flipped spots yet again.

So the ranks are predicting a Colts victory in the Super Bowl. Makes sense to me. Personally, I'm going to be rooting for the Saints this year. I appreciated the Colts when I lived in Indianapolis, but they already got a Super Bowl 3 years ago. I'm going to stick with my college loyalties and root for Drew Brees to become the 3rd Purdue quarterback to win the Super Bowl, and hopefully increase his chances of joining the other 2 (Griese and Dawson) in the hall of fame.

So.....
"Who dat? Who dat? Who dat say dey gonna beat dem Saints? Who dat? Who dat?"
(I hope the NFL doesn't sue....)

Full Ranks:
1. Colts - 72.34 - Even
2. Chargers - 71.39 - Even
3. Saints - 69.15 - +5
4. Cowboys - 65.71 - +1
5. Vikings - 65.42 - -1
6. Texans - 65.33 - Even
7. Jets - 64.46 - -4
8. Packers - 63.89 - -1
9. Ravens - 62.62 - Even
10. Eagles - 61.95 - Even
11. Falcons - 61.40 - Even
12. Patriots - 61.09 - Even
13. 49ers - 60.36 - Even
14. Panthers - 59.63 - Even
15. Steelers - 58.84 - Even
16. Titans - 52.35 - Even
17. Cardinals - 50.05 - Even
18. Bengals - 48.48 - Even
19. Browns - 44.97 - Even
20. Bills - 44.63 - Even
21. Broncos - 43.88 - +1
22. Bears - 43.47 - -1
23. Giants - 41.57 - Even
24. Dolphins - 38.68 - Even
25. Jaguars - 35.39 - Even
26. Buccaneers - 32.40 - Even
27. Redskins - 30.76 - +1
28. Chiefs - 30.63 - -1
29. Raiders - 27.79 - Even
30. Seahawks - 23.62 - Even
31. Lions - 15.37 - Even
32. Rams - 11.10 - Even

NFL Power Ranks: Week 6

Our 2nd #1 vs. #2 battle of the young season was decided once again in favor of the #2 team. However, unlike last time, when the #2 Vikings beat the #1 49ers, the #2 team was not leapfrogged by a team ranked below them. This means your new #1 team is none other than the New Orleans Saints. The Giants' loss caused them to fall to #6, and allowed each of the remaining 4 unbeaten teams to rise one spot. Speaking of unbeatens, Purdue QBs are now 16-0 this season, 11-0 as starters. The Falcons, who have 2 nice wins in the past 2 weeks, jumped ahead of the Giants for the #5 spot, and the Patriots destruction of the Oilers moved them up to #7, and back in the pack with the elite teams. I guess the Titans must have had a bye this week...

For the bottom 5, there isn't much to talk about. The Bucs, Rams, and Titans all suck pretty hard, and the Chiefs climbed up 3 spots by getting their first win over the Redskins. They are replaced in the bottom by the Browns. Maybe the most surprising thing this week is the Raiders' shocking win over the Eagles got them nowhere, but do I still feel they are a bottom 5 team? Probably.

The big gainers this week were the Cardinals for destroying a division rival and moving into tie or first, and Jaguars...which really confuses me since they beat the Rams. The biggest losers were the Ravens, who have lost 3 straight, and the Bengals, who got a reality check care of Houston (the Oilers? These AFL uniforms have me confused...)

BOLD PREDICTION
I noticed when doing these ranks that this has been kind of a boring season so far. I think 5 of the 8 divisions are already in the bag, and some teams are just pure awful. We are only 6 weeks into the season, and I am going to make the following predictions based on these ranks:
1. The top 7 teams are in a league of their own, and are playoff locks
2. the Bottom 11 teams have no chance in hell of making the playoffs, and will continue to be trampled by the top 21 teams.
3. That leaves the remaining 14 teams to battle it out for the final 5 playoff spots. That's what to look forward to for the rest of the regular season. So using these criteria, in the NFC, the Vikings, Giants, and either Saints or Falcons are winning the division, with the other getting the Wild Card. That means either the 49ers or Cardinals win the west, and the last wild card spot is a fight between the Packers, Bears, Eagles, and Cowboys. In the AFC, the Colts, Broncos, and Patriots are winning the division. The AFC North will be a battle between the Bengals, Steelers, and Ravens, and 2 of those teams will battle it out with the Jaguars, Texans, Dolphins, Jets, and Chargers for the 2 wild card spots.

Here are the complete ranks:
1. Saints - 87.58 - +1
2. Vikings - 83.93 - +1
3. Colts - 83.44 - +1
4. Broncos - 82.61 - +1
5. Falcons - 73.82 - +2
6. Giants - 72.75 - -5
7. Patriots - 72.26 - +5
8. Packers - 64.37 - +3
9. Bears - 61.90 - Even
10. Eagles - 60.49 - -2
11. Cardinals - 59.11 - +7
12. Bengals - 58.95 - -6
13. Steelers - 58.82 - +3
14. 49ers - 55.64 - -1
15. Cowboys - 55.04 - -1
16. Jaguars - 50.93 - +7
17. Texans - 50.40 - +5
18. Ravens - 49.47 - -8
19. Dolphins - 45.91 - +1
20. Jets - 43.96 - -5
21. Chargers - 41.98 - -4
22. Seahawks - 39.45 - -1
23. Panthers - 36.48 - +3
24. Redskins - 36.30 - +5
25. Bills - 34.49 - +2
26. Chiefs - 32.58 - +3
27. Lions - 29.80 - -3
28. Raiders - 29.37 - Even
29. Browns - 25.82 - -4
30. Buccaneers - 18.20 - Even
31. Titans - 12.62 - Even
32. Rams - 10.05 - Even

NFL Power Rankings: Week 4

Week 4 is never too exciting of a week in the power ranks. Sure, if there are a few 4-0 teams they will be scrambling for the top spot, but we are so early into the season that there is still too large of a spread among the winning percentages (1.000, .750, .500, .250, .000) and there is really no such thing as "recent success" since everything is recent. So right now all the teams that fall into those 5 winning percentage categories listed in the previous run-on sentence fit neatly into blocks in the ranks, but as the season progresses, the other factors of the formula, especially strength of division, offensive, defensive, and turnover stats, will cause some teams with lower records to leapfrog some teams with higher records.

With that said the undefeated team to crawl to the top of the mountain this week is the New Orleans Saints after their nice win over the previously undefeated Jets. The ironic thing here is when I first started doing these ranks in 2007, the Saints were ranked #31 after week 4 after an 0-4 start. Things can change quickly I guess...The Giants didn't do anything wrong to drop to #2, they just beat down an inferior opponent, which hurts your strength of schedule this early in the season. The Vikings also fell victim to the Saints' surge to first this week, dropping to #3, while the Colts are back in a familiar place at #4 after destroying Seattle. The Broncos fell to #5 despite beating the Cowboys. New England, San Francisco, and Chicago top the 3-1 group at 6, 7, and 8.

The teams in the bottom 5 seem to be right at home. The Rams sank to a new level of suck this week, dropping into last behind idle Carolina, while the Browns and Titans stayed put after a tough loss for the Browns, and a horrendous loss for the Titans (thanks for screwing my fantasy team this week, Tennessee Defense). We have a new entrant into the bottom 5, the Chiefs, who fell behind Tampa for losing in more pathetic fashion this week.

The big gainers this week were Chicago, who is starting to look like how some people predicting them this year, Jacksonville, who seem to be bouncing back, and Miami, who got a big first win over Buffalo. The big losers were the Raiders, who seemed to be ranked too high to begin with, the Jets, and Packers, who were both victims of 4-0 teams this week and dropped 5 spots each for it.

Here are the complete ranks:
1. Saints - 87.02 - +3
2. Giants - 85.25 - -1
3. Vikings - 84.80 - -1
4. Colts - 83.17 - +3
5. Broncos - 81.94 - -2
6. Patriots - 69.19 - +3
7. 49ers - 69.02 - +3
8. Bears - 68.75 - +8
9. Ravens - 67.88 - -3
10. Jets - 65.54 - -5
11. Bengals - 63.95 - Even
12. Eagles - 60.61 - Even
13. Packers - 59.72 - -5
14. Falcons - 56.85 - +1
15. Cowboys - 54.69 - -2
16. Jaguars - 54.26 - +6
17. Chargers - 50.47 - -3
18. Texans - 49.23 - +1
19. Redskins - 48.95 - -1
20. Steelers - 48.23 - +1
21. Dolphins - 36.77 - +6
22. Lions - 35.87 - -2
23. Cardinals -35.86 - +2
24. Raiders - 30.54 - -7
25. Seahawks - 29.86 - -1
26. Bills - 28.63 - -3
27. Buccaneers - 19.15 - +1
28. Chiefs - 18.73 - -2
29. Titans - 16.75 - Even
30. Browns - 15.36 - Even
31. Panthers - 11.89 - +1
32. Rams - 10.30 - -1

Thanks, Joe

Purdue 62, Indiana 10. It was a great way to finish a career, winning the Old Oaken Bucket for the 10th time in 12 years in front of the Boilermaker faithful on a cold day at Ross-Ade Stadium. This was the last game for Joe Tiller, and despite a pretty awful final season, he can ride off into the sunset with yet another victory over the hated Hoosiers, by the largest margin since 1893.

Purdue fans are obviously disappointed that Purdue had its worst season under Tiller this year, only finishing 4-8 and missing a bowl for only the 2nd time since he took the team over in 1997 and shocked the college football world by leading Purdue to a 8-3 record and its first bowl appearance since 1984. A lot of people felt that he may have given up on the team the past few seasons, that his loyalty to his assistant coaching staff was actually hurting more than helping, and his poor record against ranked teams and the "big boys" (Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Notre Dame) in years when those teams weren't in the gutter, but there's no need to discuss this today. We need to remember why we are disappointed that Purdue is not going bowling this time: because Tiller made it a year in year out tradition in West Lafayette. Sure, its not like he took them to the Rose Bowl every year, but he actually made the football team consistently competitive for the first time since the days of Jack Mollenkopf.

Tiller brought the exciting spread offense from Wyoming to the Big Ten, a conference long known for its ground game. The style was openly questioned when he arrived, with many wondering if it would take hold in a cold weather conference against much more talented defenses than what he saw in the WAC. But he had a secret weapon up his sleeve, a young man named Drew Brees. In his early years at the school, backed by a tough Colletto-recruited defense, a passing attack never before seen in the Big Ten was unleashed on the conference, leading to a huge upset victory of #4 Kansas State in the 1998 Alamo Bowl, putting the program, Tiller, and Brees on the college football map. The Brees era culminated in 2000 with Purdue's first Rose Bowl appearance since 1967 when Brees led the team to 2 clutch victories over both Michigan and Ohio State.

Purdue went through a bit of a rebuilding in both 2001 and 2002 on both sides of the ball, but Tiller still managed to bring them to the Sun Bowl both seasons. He entered 2003 with an experienced Kyle Orton and an incredibly talented defense, in what I felt was his most talented team (but was lacking a natural born leader like Brees to win the conference again). Tiller's offense again allowed Orton to tear up the Big Ten, and the defense was one of the best in the nation, with 7 of them being drafted to the NFL after the season. Purdue entered 2004 with big expectations, and they delivered early in the season, reaching as high as #5 in the rankings until a heartbreaking loss to Wisconsin and an Orton injury, which derailed their season.

The Curtis Painter years weren't quite as successful for Joe, marked by Painter's inconsistent play and a crumbling defense that couldn't seem to stop anyone (but improved this season, slightly). Tiller still managed to lead the team to 2 bowl games and 3 wins over Indiana, and Painter is still one of the all-time Big Ten leaders in numerous passing categories.

So thanks for the memories and making Purdue relevant again, Joe. Your offensive style has changed the Big Ten forever, and many of your former players that were drafted are having excellent NFL careers. Hopefully your hand-picked replacement can keep the new tradition of winning at Purdue that you started alive and well. You will never be forgotten, especially by the over 50,000 Purdue Alumni that had you as their head coach for their entire time at Purdue, and I'm one of them.

Our First Real Mailbag

Originally posted on Is It Sports? Yes, we finally got an e-mail to answer as a mail bag question, and yes, it was from our friend Jesse, who happened to be my roommate at the time, but he still at least read the site! I'll put my horrible comments in blue. I would have killed for the Niners to have gotten Rivers looking back at things, and Ryan nailed the Bears taking Orton. I don't know why we talked about Braylon Edwards so much back then...

Q: Do Steve or Ryan honestly believe that Brees is a "franchise player"? What team do you guys think he will be playing for next year? What NFL QB is Brees most comparable to? Just lookin for your guys' opinions

- Jesse B, Ann Arbor, MI

A: Steve: Well the Chargers franchised him so they would get a compensatory draft pick if they traded him Steve: now its looking like they're going to try to trade Rivers to the 49ers for the first overall draft pick so they will most likely be keeping Brees
Ryan: I think he is a franchise type player, I just don't think he's the answer for the Chargers, and I dont think they are going to trade Rivers to the 49ers
Steve: I'd rather see the 49ers get Alex Smith from Utah with that first pick, but I'm pretty sure Rivers will be going somewhere for a first rounder pretty soon
Ryan: ere is my logic for both parts a) the team effectively gave up on him already. I see him moving on with experience and the ability to lead as a veteran for a team that desperately needs a veteran quarterback (Washington)? and b) the Chargers arent trading Rivers, the 4th pick last year, unless they get quality now (which the 49ers dont have) or assurances that they get someone quality in the draft this year (which this year's draft doesnt have)
Steve: I'm still willing to bet Rivers goes and they stick with Brees
Ryan: if rivers goes its not until next year
Steve: the Chargers don't operate with a whole lot of logic though Steve: so who knows
Ryan: and i bet the 49ers take Braylon Edwards
Ryan: as for what quarterback he reminds me of... Drew Bledsoe
Ryan: just the sluggish start to his career, and then after another crappy start he throws 70 passes (70!) and then leads the Pats on a 7 game winning streak.. a year later they are playing the Packers in New Orleans
Ryan: so, the sudden turn around, i think is what reminds me most of Bledsoe
Ryan: the 70 was in one game, against the vikings, and the pats won
Ryan: to clarify
Steve: I think as an NFL quarterback he reminds me most of the final years of John Elway's career Steve: The focus of the offense is mostly on the run, but he's a quarterback that can still get the job very effectively done if you focus too much on stopping the run
Ryan: changing gears ever so slightly.... has there ever been a more inevitable pick than Kyle Orton going to the Bears in the coming draft?
Steve: well it would be a really good pick for the Bears, so I have doubts that it will happen for that reason alone
Ryan: now, Orton hasnt really proven himself to be a pressure QB, so I think a quarterback who cracks under pressure and fumbles like its his job belongs on the Bears of the past 15 years
Steve: yeah even longer than that probably...haha Steve: actually.... Steve: Jim McMahon is a good comparison for Brees too