The Victoria Times National Championship

With the actual college football season wrapping up tonight, I also wrapped up the Victoria Times NCAA football simulation (well, my version anyways. Steve is in Week 10 of his version). Please read this or this to see how the simulation is done, not to mention the motivations behind everything. There was another, three part post that consumed a more detailed rationale behind the idea of our simulation, and you can read that here. I would read the shorter stuff.
So let's get into this recap. Let me start with a few points of interest.
- This year, only 2 teams (Boise State and Tennessee) went undefeated in conference, while there were 4 two loss conference champs. Lots of tiebreakers this year.
- There were 11 different teams from last year's tournament, with the only holdover Boise State.
- The best conference was the California conference (first time it wasn't the Dixie), with the worst, far and away, the Mountain West
- A grand total of TWO BCS teams made the tournament, Stanford and TCU
- There was only one undefeated team, Boise State. Also, there were no winless teams. A lot more parity this season.

Now, the conference summaries. These are listed in an order so that the first 4 were in the same pod, the next 4 in the same, and the last 4 in the same, meaning they played each other in their non conference schedule. Here we go.

Dixie: 2010 champion - Alabama
2011: Georgia. Yes, the Bulldogs were certainly one of the strangest teams to become conference champion in a while, particularly when you consider that the conference they came from also is home to tonight's BCS title contender Auburn and Alabama, a team some people call one of the best teams in the country, even with their losses this year. It came down to a last minute field goal against Alabama to give Georgia the conference championship. Clemson is an interesting team to note, because they played both Auburn and Oregon... and won both games. They also lost at home to Kent State. Whatifsports is strange. Also, the engine at Whatif still doesn't like Georgia Tech.
Order of Finish: Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina, Clemson, Mississippi State, Mississippi, UAB, Georgia Tech, Louisiana-Monroe

Great Basin: 2010 - Boise State
2011: Boise State - Oregon is the national title contender out of this conference, but in this simulation, they lost on the road at Clemson to start the season, and then at home against Boise State late in the year, but still ended up in second. The bottom of the conference was very weak, with three 1-8 (2-10 overall) teams, helping sap the strength of this conference after sneaking past the top two.
Order of Finish: Boise State, Oregon, Utah, Oregon State, Nevada, Idaho, Washington, Utah State, Washington State, UNLV

Appalachian: 2010 - Virginia Tech
2011: Louisville. Yeah, in a year that the Georgia Bulldogs unseated the powers from Alabama, the Louisville Cardinals made it to the tournament, as a team that ended up with a first round bye no less. Virginia Tech, the traditional favorite here, was abysmal, losing their three non conference games, followed by three more in conference. Pitt looked to have the conference locked up, before falling by 1 at home to West Virginia in the last week of the season. Virginia managed to be one of the final undefeateds in the country as well. Kentucky was surprisingly bad.
Order of finish: Louisville, Pittsburgh, Virginia, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Miami (OH), Cincinnati, Marshall, Ohio, Kentucky

Great Lakes: 2010 - Ohio State
2011: Michigan State. This was another conference that saw it's fate decided in the last week of the season Ohio State lost at Michigan State (MSU had lost earlier in the season to Central Michigan). Michigan continues to be a resounding disappointment in this conference, finishing 7th, behind such luminaries as Central Michigan, Kent State, Western Michigan and Bowling Green.
Order of Finish - Michigan State, Ohio State, Central Michigan, Kent State, Western Michigan, Bowling Green, Michigan, Toledo, Akron, Eastern Michigan.

New England: 2010 - Penn State
2011 - Maryland. Worst to first! Another odd qualifier for the post season, but they defeated real life BCS competitor UCONN. All in all, though, this was a very weak conference, with nobody from the conference entering the conference schedule undefeated.
Order of Finish: Maryland, Connecticut, Syracuse, Temple, Navy, Boston College, Penn State, Rutgers, Buffalo, Army

Florida: 2010 - Florida
2011 - Florida State. The Seminoles went winless last year. WINLESS, and now they won the conference that Florida has dominated all year. The Gators lost their final contest of the season against Miami, as well as their contest with the Seminoles earlier in the season, which gave Florida State a better head to head record, and entrance into the post season for the first time.
Order of Finish: Florida State, Florida, Florida International, Central Florida, Miami (FL), Southern Miss, Tulane, South Florida, Troy, Florida Atlantic

Gulf Coast: 2010 - Texas
2011: TCU. Finally, a conference that makes sense. Texas A&M made a charge for the top spot, but a head to head loss against the Horned Frogs was all the difference. There were a lot of strange upsets in this conference, including LSU losing to both Louisiana-Lafayette AND North Texas. TCU's one loss was to Houston.
Order of Finish: TCU, Texas A&M, Louisiana Tech, Houston, Texas, LSU, SMU, North Texas, Louisiana-Lafayette, Rice

Midwest: 2010 - Wisconsin
2011: Iowa. The conference that is nearest and dearest to our hearts at the Victoria Times was tumultuous and nonsensical. It was a strong conference, second strongest, in fact, in the country. At the end of various weeks, there were 5 different conference leaders at various points in the year, with Wisconsin, Northern Illinois, Illinois, Northwestern and the eventual champ, Iowa all having the top spot at some point. Iowa defeated Wisconsin in the final week of the season to get a trip to the tournament. Purdue and Minnesota, schools of note here, ended up in 8th and 10th, respectively. Yes, that's out of 10.
Order of Finish: Iowa, Wisconsin, Northern Illinois, Notre Dame, Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Ball State, Minnesota

Tobacco Road: 2010 - North Carolina
2011: Tennessee. Looking at the teams involved in this conference, one could only label it one thing... a Dumpster fire. Tennessee won the conference by a greater margin than any other conference champ, with the next placed teams, North and East Carolina, a full three games back of the undefeated (in conference) Volunteers. 5 teams ended the season 3-9. Dreadful.
Order of Finish: Tennessee, East Carolina, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Duke, Vanderbilt, Middle Tennessee State, Memphis, Western Kentucky, Wake Forest

California: 2010 - USC
2011: Stanford. This was the first time USC didn't win this conference, and they were deplorable this year. Stanford was the last team to lose their first game during the regular season, a stunner at home to Fresno. They had the conference pretty well managed, though, impressive given that this was the top conference in all the land.
Order of Finish: Stanford, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Arizona State, San Diego State, Fresno State, USC, UCLA, San Jose State

Great Plains: 2010 - Oklahoma
2011: Oklahoma State. This conference was pretty wild. It ended with a three way tie at the top that had to be broken by point differential, leaving Oklahoma State at the top, over Arkansas and Oklahoma. This wouldn't have been an issue had Missouri not upset the Cowboys in the final week of the season. Every team that was involved in the final tiebreak ended the season 9-3, making the Cowboys one of the lower seeds in the tournament. Nebraska had a surprisingly poor season
Order of Finish: Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas State, Tulsa, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa State, Arkansas State

Mountain West: 2010: Texas Tech
2010: Baylor. The Mountain West in real life is an upstart conference with strong teams (that are now pretty much scattering across the country). In the sim, it has been one of the weakest conferences the past couple of years. Texas Tech, who won the conference last year were susceptible to big home losses, including one to the eventual champs Baylor, who also lost their fair share of bad games, including conference contests against Colorado and Wyoming. It was just a strange conference.
Order of Finish:  Baylor, BYU, Texas Tech, Colorado, Colorado State, Air Force, Wyoming, UTEP, New Mexico State, New Mexico

And now on to the National Championship tournament, which is played using various bowl games (the oldest of them get playoff games, the older (or BCS) games get contests later on down the line) with the National Championship game being hosted by the Appalachian conference, and played in Washington, DC this year. On to the games.

Peach Bowl: #8 Michigan State 24, #9 Iowa 14. The Big Ten placed a team in the quarterfinals! Not so bad after all! Despite Ricky Stanzi's 227yds through the air, the Spartans dominated this one.

Gator Bowl: #5 TCU 37, #12 Florida State 34: This game was a lot closer than I think anyone would have anticipated, coming down to a late touchdown for the Horned Frogs to overcome a fierce performance for Florida State.

Citrus (Capital One) Bowl: #11 Baylor 45, #6 Tennessee 20: So much for that dominant conference record, Tennessee. Baylor got a huge day from QB Robert Griffin and surprisingly moved on to the quarters.

Liberty Bowl: #10 Oklahoma State 37, #7 Maryland 13. The two "upsets" were also the biggest blowouts. Maryland couldn't keep up with the Cowboys, getting their only touchdown on a punt return, but not forcing enough punts to be competetive.

This of course led to the quarterfinals.
Orange Bowl: #1 Boise State 54, #8 Michigan State 10. So much for the strength of the Big Ten. Kellen Moor threw for 5 touchdowns and threw for almost 500 yards.

Cotton Bowl: #5 TCU 38, #4 Louisville 7. All is right with the world after this whitewashing. Ed Wesley ran for 155 yards and had a rushing and receiving touchdown

Sun Bowl: #3 Georgia 30, #11 Baylor 17. This game was tied going into the 4th quarter, with Baylor looking to run through both of the SEC teams. It was not to be as Aaron threw for all three Bulldog touchdowns. And Georgia was one of the Final 4 teams in the tournament.

Fiesta Bowl: #2 Stanford 56, #10 Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State jumped out to a huge lead in this contest, but through the game Stanford picked their way back into it. With 2 minutes left, the Cowboys returned a punt to the 5 to tie the game again in the 4th quarter. Stanford marched it back down the field, however, for a last second, game winning TD.

And with that, the final four was set, one game away from the National Championship in Washington

Rose Bowl: #1 Boise State 55, #5 TCU 21. It looked like nobody could stop the Broncos, especially Doug Martin who ran for 240 yards. Ridiculous numbers from Boise State.

Sugar Bowl #2 Stanford 47 #3 Georgia 41 (OT). It was another nail biter, with the Cardinal coming back late again to send the game to overtime. They got the ball first, but missed the extra point. Georgia got it down to the 4 yard line but were stopped short on the final play of the game to send Stanford to a date with Boise State.
Stanford fell behind again, with Boise going up 21-0 early, looking as though they were going to destroy their opponent once again, despite this being the first 1-2 matchup in the history of the tournament. Stanford, just like in every other one of their games, came charging back, and it came down to the last drive of the game, down by 2. With three seconds left, they kicked one through the uprights to win the national title 41-40

Here is the link to the game if you wanted to click through it, because it really was dramatic, in a simulated kind of way.
There is usually a lesson in these sims, and I think I have one for this year's adventure... It's a razor thin wire between success and failure. There were a lot of last second wins and losses, not only for Stanford, but say, for Alabama against Georgia to stay out of the tournament. It takes not only skill but a little bit of luck every season.
I can't tell you how much I enjoy this exercise every year, and I can't wait until the 2012 champion will be crowned.