Wednesday, December 30, 2009

NFL Power Ranks: Week 16

Well, that guy over on the right side of this page almost broke the Colts' streak at the #1 spot this week. One thing to keep in mind with these rankings is that they are completely done using a mathematical formula, and do not care if a team benches all of it's starters to rest up for the playoffs. A loss is a loss, and a team that goes that route pays for it.

However, the Colts were so far ahead that they maintained the #1 ranking by 0.04 points over the Chargers, who move up to #2 after another dominating win over the sorta-hot Titans. The Eagles fall back to #3 after their narrow win over Denver, while the Packers and Patriots fill out #4 and #5, capitalizing on losses by the Saints and Ravens.

If you still want to read about the bottom 5, the Rams, Lions, and Chiefs stayed put while the shocking 3rd consecutive win by the Browns and even more shocking upset of the Saints by the Bucs move those 2 teams out of the bottom. Replacing them are the Seahawks, who have packed it in since their win over the Niners a few weeks back, and Redskins, who are just awful.

There was a lot of movement in the ranks this week, as some teams have caught fire while others have gone ice cold. The biggest gainer this week was the Panthers, who got their 2nd blowout win in a row over a NFC playoff contender, moving them to their highest spot all year at #14. The Cardinals also moved up 6 spots and are actually in a position to end up with a first round bye if a few things go their way on Sunday.

There were a lot of big losers this week. The Titans, who were right in the playoff hunt, played themselves right out of it on Christmas and dropped 7 spots. The Vikings dropped another 6 spots to #13 after losing yet again. The Brett Favre annual breakdown is upon us. Also, the Broncos dropped 6 spots after basically completely blowing their easy ticket to the playoffs.

So what happens this Sunday? Well, we can use the ranks as a guide to predict some winners. The ranks are predicting the crazy AFC picture gets settled easily, as the Jets are ranked higher than the Bengals and the Ravens are higher than the Raiders. With those 2 winning (and the Bengals losing) the playoff projections would be the Colts and Chargers with byes, and the Jets visiting the Bengals and the Ravens visiting the Patriots in the wild card round.

In the NFC, the Eagles are ranked higher than Dallas, the Vikings are ranked higher than the Giants, and the Packers are ranked higher than the Cardinals. In this scenario, the Saints and Eagles would get the first round byes, while the Packers would visit the Cardinals and the Cowboys would visit the Vikings in the wild card round.

Here are the full ranks:
1. Colts - 78.34 - Even
2. Chargers - 78.30 - +1
3. Eagles - 76.69 - -1
4. Packers - 70.37 - +1
5. Patriots - 70.27 - +3
6. Saints - 69.02 - -2
7. Cowboys - 61.92 - +2
8. Ravens - 61.82 - -2
9. Jets - 60.51 - +2
10. Cardinals - 59.84 - +6
11. Texans - 59.51 - +3
12. Bengals - 59.34 - -2
13. Vikings - 57.34 - -2
14. Panthers - 56.31 - +7
15. Falcons - 54.60 - +3
16. 49ers - 53.88 - +1
17. Steelers - 51.93 - +5
18. Broncos - 51.31 - -6
19. Giants - 49.34 - -4
20. Titans - 47.23 - -7
21. Dolphins - 44.23 - -2
22. Jaguars - 42.67 - -2
23. Bears - 40.60 - +3
24. Browns - 37.58 - +4
25. Bills - 34.89 - -2
26. Raiders - 34.19 - -1
27. Buccaneers - 32.33 - +2
28. Redskins - 31.65 - -1
29. Seahawks - 29.04 - -5
30. Chiefs - 23.74 - Even
31. Lions - 15.59 - Even
32. Rams - 11.09 - Even

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